Mid July Predictions:

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

A bit of a tall task to me. If he lasts the entire season as the starter I'd be surprised. Plus the cupboard seems pretty bare at WR and they will have a rookie at RB. I can see their D bouncing back, I'm just not sure that will be enough though.

No doubt that my 11 win prediction is based on a career year from a QB. And I don't disagree with you that it's a fallacious thing to base a prediction on.

But when you consider that a career year from Grossman is about 3,500 yards, a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (say 20 to 12), a completion percentage of a measly 58%, and about 6.7-7.0 yards/attempt, that seems somewhat reasonable (if unsustainable) for Grossman. It's important to remember that while Grossman isn't good at all, if you compare the first 5 years of his career to Jon Kitna, who a lot of people argue is the top QB in the NFC North right now, you would take Grossman in a runaway. It wasn't until he started pushing 30 that Kitna started producing results that weren't horrific.

I would totally reconsider my prediction if Orton wins the job...because those numbers seem somewhat unobtainable for the neckbeard, but Grossman could do it with a steady diet of passes down the middle of the field to like...Marty Booker, and Devin Hester occasionally getting behind the defense.

It won't be pretty, but then again, no game in that division will be with the quality of QB that Grossman will be facing.