Redskins trade for Jason Taylor (updated)

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I'd be interested to hear what kind of analysis you're doing to strip out the covariances involved with the multiple variables driving team performance. That's the big reason sabermetrics has not caught on in football. With baseball, you can normalize your data set rather easily because in the end, it largely boils down to a pitcher vs hitter matchup, with a few variables like day vs night, score, and situation to adjust for. But in football, the QB's performance depend's upon the line's ability to block the defense, the WRs' ability to get open, the effectiveness of the running game, the score, the quarter, etcetera. It's hard enough to quantify some of these variables, and even harder to mathematically formulate the covariance quotients to effectively tease them out and normalize your data. Have you done anything on this front?

yeah, i watch the game.




but i did make a neat equation if you're interested:
good players = win more games.

yay!

[jdlea]

Originally Posted by That Guy

good players = win more games.

That is some funny sh#t!

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

yeah, i watch the game.




but i did make a neat equation if you're interested:
good players = win more games.

yay!

This was basically the point of my post. Sabermetrics is relatively useless in football because nobody's been able to do any of the things I mentioned.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This was basically the point of my post. Sabermetrics is relatively useless in football because nobody's been able to do any of the things I mentioned.

i understand that, but when you go from saying there's a probability that brady would win you five more games to stating it as a fact that's annoying some i think.

those stats aren't proven, and while it is useful, they're not definitive, it's just probabilities vs average (and generally, it's average production, not average talent)... the actual game scorers that provide their basic data feed are NOT accounted for either among other things (ie, philly's scorers tend to count passes throw directly out of bounds as PDs for the nearest defender, but most scorers don't do that).

because most of the work doesn't factor out all that much (it's better than nothing, but on a scale of 1 to 10, it might be a 3 or 4) so quoting it as definitive or fact is really pretty misleading.

*the team stats are actually pretty decent, it's just the individual stats and finding specific answers based off vague input data that's not great.