Update: McCain Selects Gov. Sarah Palin as Running Mate

[wilsowilso]

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by wilsowilso

This election is probably not going to be as close as some people think. If the conservative base stayed home in November(McCain has always struggled to appeal to Evangelicals and the like) the election might have been a landslide. This choice just gets the conservative Christian vote solidified so that the GOP doesn't get completely embarrased. The GOP doesn't have a chance to win IMO. They just need to keep it close.

Not so fast my friend.....

War Room - Salon.com

You're right on about the conservative Christian vote, but the rest of your analysis is way off.

Angry Clinton supporters toast McCain, roast Obama - CNN.com

Hillary Supporters for McCain: Gov. Sarah Palin: Presidential Material

Ha! Say the Online Hillary Supporters | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

The first article is from CNN (no bastion of conservatism) and these numbers don't bode well for Obama, "But there is some bad news for Obama. The poll showed that 66 percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June."

Let's look at those numbers. Hillary was claiming approximately 18 million votes in the primary, for the sake of being conservative (pun intended), let's say it was only 10 million. Now polls are showing approximately 27% are favoring McCain, not staying home, favoring McCain. Being conservative again, let's say the real number is 20%, that translates into 2 million votes for McCain that are coming from the Democrat base. That is a 4 million vote swing. If those votes are in battleground areas (very likely) the media will be forecasting McCain the winner before midnight on election night.

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

[wilsowilso]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

This was before McCain's VP pick of Palin. I know the other links are just blogs, but I think many are underestimating the Hillary effect. IMO McCain will win, largely due to support from Hillary supporters (or non-support of them for Obama). It will be similar to Bill Clinton's win over Bush I, where Perot took enough of the conservative votes to allow Clinton to win.

Obama doesn't at all need the support of these so called Hillary Clinton supporters. These are supporters from the primary election season(the tracking will change for the general election seeing as how many states allowed Republicans to actually vote in Democratic primaries). Voters that are upset enough that Clinton didn't win the nomination that they would actually cross party lines and or vote for a woman who quite literally is on the exact opposite side of the aisle on just about every major issue are actually just voters who were part of the GOP base to begin with. The only reason they were going to vote for a Democrat was simply because Hillary was a woman. It's all about core issues and the number of so called "Hillary effect" defectors that are actually true democrats who would completely disregard whatever issues are most important to their everyday lives just because they are bitter is not going to be very dramatic IMO.

Also, the choice of Palin(pro life) basically guarantees that anyone in those polls who's got concerns about the core issue that a woman should have the right to choose will vote for Obama. No matter how mad you might be nobody's giving up basic constitutionally protected rights just to prove a point.

[NM Redskin]

What will be interesting to see, is will the Hilary supporters support Palin ,after Hilary starts to slam Palin? If I was the Dems, I would send Hilary after her.