Our WRs in 2009... My Thoughts

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

I hope!
I'm not trying to bash Vinny's choices. Well, maybe I am w/Kelly's knees if it's true that the med. staff red flagged it. I thought Thomas was a relative steal where we got him & was certainly worth taking a chance on. I do think it's obvious that the jury is still out on these guys. We didn't see enough in 08 to show us that they'll become playmakers.

I trust JLC's reporting about Thomas' behavior, as I don't think he would write it if he didn't have good info after a full season. Sounds like the guy has a lot of personal maturing to do, hope that he can do that here in DC & be at least a dependable starter for us.

The general rule of thumb for selecting an underclassman is this: "If player x were to play (hypothetically) his senior season, and post mediocre numbers relative to the offense he plays in, would we still draft him where we are drafting him now?"

And the answer on Thomas was a very obvious no. One great season followed up by a return to reality a second round receiver does not make. The assumption that a year he started as Michigan State's second target, and caught a bunch of people by surprise en route to a 100+ reception season (literally out of no where), and this was a reflection of his actual value was nothing but wishful thinking and poor evaluation by the draft analysts, who tried to use the combine numbers to justify the poor reasoning.

Malcolm Kelly, on the other hand, is probably still a top two round selection in 2009 simply by virtue of staying healthy for 12 games in 2008. So, health aside, Kelly passes the hypothetical above.

And obviously, as a Senior, Fred Davis doesn't apply because he played out his eligibility, and gave us a pretty good idea who he was coming out of the draft. I'm not sure that he screamed first round prospect, but Davis has in no way underachieved in his first season, IMO.