Updated: Discuss our Backup QB Situation (formerly Byron Leftwich)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

In the context of this post, Leftwich is a viable option to replace Campbell for a year or two. he will be one of the cheapest free agents on the market (which is important, not only because of our cap situation, but also because rumor has it snyder is going to be stingy this off-season), he has some familiarity to the WCO (even though he wasnt that great in it), and he wants to be here. If he really has this lightning fast decision making that Florio speaks of, he's an upgrade over Campbell by default. One of the many reasons Campbell is a horrible fit here is he can't make decisions quickly enough. He also lconsistently locks on to his receivers and is cripplingly (is that a word?) to take a chance - Leftwich would be an upgrade in those areas as well.

But don't you see the big picture here? People wrote Leftwich off because of non-measurable evidences such as: "Slow release, slow decision making, non-system quarterback". None of those things are actually true in Leftwich's case (well, slow release is true, but that's made irrelivant by other things he does well). But you are invoking the same non-measureable arguments against Campbell as you are dismissing in support of Leftwich.

Leftwich is no better or worse of a decision-maker than Campbell is, who is no better or worse a decision maker than Jeff Garcia is. It's all perception based on a number of factors.

Thankfully, you can measure QB improvement, and all three of the aforementioned guys kept improving from the 3rd to 4th to 5th to 6th year in the NFL. The narratives are very different though, thanks entirely to scouting error.

One guy went on to develop into a pro bowler, then his stock dropped, bounced around the league, and resurfaced. Another guy was developing, had his development abruptly ended, bounced around the league and now his stock is on the upswing. The last guy has yet to be replaced by his current team, but the fan base is split down the middle on his future and the front office is hesitant to pull the trigger.

Shouldn't we worry about getting it right with our own guy before trying to pick up a career reclaimation project?

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

But don't you see the big picture here? People wrote Leftwich off because of non-measurable evidences such as: "Slow release, slow decision making, non-system quarterback". None of those things are actually true in Leftwich's case (well, slow release is true, but that's made irrelivant by other things he does well). But you are invoking the same non-measureable arguments against Campbell as you are dismissing in support of Leftwich.

Leftwich is no better or worse of a decision-maker than Campbell is, who is no better or worse a decision maker than Jeff Garcia is. It's all perception based on a number of factors.

Thankfully, you can measure QB improvement, and all three of the aforementioned guys kept improving from the 3rd to 4th to 5th to 6th year in the NFL. The narratives are very different though, thanks entirely to scouting error.

One guy went on to develop into a pro bowler, then his stock dropped, bounced around the league, and resurfaced. Another guy was developing, had his development abruptly ended, bounced around the league and now his stock is on the upswing. The last guy has yet to be replaced by his current team, but the fan base is split down the middle on his future and the front office is hesitant to pull the trigger.

Shouldn't we worry about getting it right with our own guy before trying to pick up a career reclaimation project?

I do see the big picture, which is why I want to move Campbell now.

You assume Campbell has the potential to become a franchise WCO quarterback. Everyone in the NFL was ridiculing the skins for bringing in Zorn last year because everyone realized that Campbell is a horrible fit for the offense Zorn would want to run. Dragging this thing out with Campbell is going to get us nowhere. We'll have a serviceable QB for a year, maybe two, but then we'll have to let him walk as a free agent and receive no compensation in return. Campbells trade value will never be higher than it is now. he's worth more to us as a 2nd round pick than he is as a 1-2 year starter; especially when we could bring in Leftwich (who couldnt be any worse) and have a 2nd round pick to use on a lineman.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

I do see the big picture, which is why I want to move Campbell now.

You assume Campbell has the potential to become a franchise WCO quarterback. Everyone in the NFL was ridiculing the skins for bringing in Zorn last year because everyone realized that Campbell is a horrible fit for the offense Zorn would want to run. Dragging this thing out with Campbell is going to get us nowhere. We'll have a serviceable QB for a year, maybe two, but then we'll have to let him walk as a free agent and receive no compensation in return. Campbells trade value will never be higher than it is now. he's worth more to us as a 2nd round pick than he is as a 1-2 year starter; especially when we could bring in Leftwich (who couldnt be any worse) and have a 2nd round pick to use on a lineman.

No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

------------

P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No one with any credibility was saying anything about the Zorn hire outside of "well, they ran a solid process, so we'll see if they were right".

Do you read JLC's blog? He quoted multiple leage executives (unnamed, of course) who criticized Zorns hire - both because no one else thought Zorn could be an OC, let alone HC, but also because of Campbells was essentially the opposite of what you look for in a WCO QB.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Now, if I go out on a limb and pretend you are right: If we find someone willing to deal a 2nd rounder for Campbell, that's a pretty good indication that we missed something in his valuation, right? Matt Schaub was worth two second rounders, and that was a buyers market based mostly on his prospects, not his production.

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

I actually think we could get more than a 2nd rounder, but in the end, i would take a 2nd if thats all i could get. If another team refused to offer atleast a 2nd rounder, i'd also tell them to get lost.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

I dont know how either of us can accurately predict whether Campbell will ultimately succeed in the WCO or not and back up our prediction with cold-hard facts. No one can predict the future. It all depends on what "hearsay and speculation" we chose to accept and base our belief on. Like you, i'm willing to say its possible i'm completely wrong about this: Theres a chance Campbell will surprise me here. But when i think about it, theres a FAR greater chance Campbell will fail than that he will succeed. He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws. (i'll give up the stare down argument because i know it theres no way to prove his percentage of stare-downs vs other QBs). He was drafted by Joe Gibbs to run the EXACT opposite style of offense that we are running now. The WCO doesnt take advantage of his strengths (primarily his preference to longer step drops, big arm, and pretty accurate deep ball), while exaggerating all his weaknesses (i wont bore you by reiterating them). Campbell has improved in some areas - yes (most noteably not fumbling); but his underlying flaws remain.

At some point you have to cut your losses and move on. Im ready to do that now. The bears, Vikings, and Titans are perfect fits for Campbell and they all need franchise QBs. It seems the time is right for us to move him, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

------------

P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.[/QUOTE]

If we could get more for campbell, i would be happy. As i stated earlier, I dont think leftwich is the best move for the skins, but I think hes a better move for us than sticking with campbell. In the end, I dont think leftwich would be any worse, and trading Campbell could yield us much needed draft picks, which we could use to address our lines. The more picks we have, the more line positions we can address, the sooner we can get this franchise back on track.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

If we could get more for campbell, i would be happy. As i stated earlier, I dont think leftwich is the best move for the skins, but I think hes a better move for us than sticking with campbell. In the end, I dont think leftwich would be any worse, and trading Campbell could yield us much needed draft picks, which we could use to address our lines. The more picks we have, the more line positions we can address, the sooner we can get this franchise back on track.

It's also a very, very rough analysis to assume that Leftwich and Campbell are equals, and I've been okay with that assumption, but I think I should clear up that we're talking about a 27 year old vs. a 29 year old, which is a significant difference in terms of QB play. That's a guy with his best years ahead of him vs a guy already in his prime basically.

Then there's the point that you can't really invest massive millions into Leftwich because of injury concerns, but you can in Campbell because he's got a signifcantly nicer injury history.

Byron Leftwich Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Jason Campbell Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

I think we are in agreement though that a Leftwich-caliber QB is the best the FA market will offer in any given year.

In a vacuum, it's probably close enough to justify the proposal, but taken outside of the vacuum, Campbell is simply more promising at this point than Leftwich. And I like em both. But Leftwich's development has been screwed up by poor judgements to the point where he's someone's QB of the now, and he's no one's QB of the future. When he got cut from Jacksonville, he was still a promising if flawed prospect. Sort of like Campbell would be if we cut him outright today (but significantly less flawed).

So, that's the other side of this equation. I agree that this team needs draft picks, but this is a pretty significant cost, trading in your franchise QB for a similiar QB already at his potential. I know you don't see Campbell like I do and that's not going to change, but your position neccessarily requires an inherent (and arguably unsupported) lack of faith in Jason Campbell. Without that, it simply doesn't make sense to the rest of us.

JLC also thinks Campbell is the answer at QB, as long as we're talking about his blog.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

But when i think about it, theres a FAR greater chance Campbell will fail than that he will succeed. He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws. (i'll give up the stare down argument because i know it theres no way to prove his percentage of stare-downs vs other QBs).

See, I found something in this part that may give me some insight into why you don't think Campbell will work. You said he was "too tall", and maybe I'm reading way to far into this, but I don't know of any QB who has failed because of a surplus of height.

Perhaps the fallacy here is that Campbell doesn't look the part of a West Coast QB, but I don't believe there's a specific skill set that favors a west coast player over a non west coast player.

Moreover, I think you are just reading too much into what the WCO really is. It's a buzzword. I'm not going to base any of my opinions off the term because it doesn't carry any meaning to me. It represents a passing philosophy, where the coach claims to value high percentage passing over a vertical attack, but you are still going to see a steady diet of both.

I would agree with your criticism of Campbell's inaccuracies on shorter passes, argubly more critical to the Zorn offense than others, but a college QB by the name of Brady Quinn came out with the same issue after putting together the most impressive passing resume in the history of his school in an offense that was considered to be "pure" west cost. My point is, short range inaccuracies are not a dehabilitating weakness for a quarterback. They are still going to complete 75% of passes in the 0-5 yd range, even with the occasional ugly ball. That weakness will not make or break a QB.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

He's too tall, too slow, too indecisive, and too innaccurate on his short throws.

JC 6' 5", Matt Hasselbeck 6' 4". I was always under the impression that a taller QB can see over the lines and find passing lanes easier than a shorter QB.
Jason Campbell had 258 yds rushing and 5.5 yds/carry. Better than Cutler, Garcia, McNabb, T. Jackson. His Yds/carry was better than Matt Cassel & David Garrard. The too slow argument doesn't hold water.
We've gone over the other two arguments already.

The WCO doesnt take advantage of his strengths (primarily his preference to longer step drops, big arm, and pretty accurate deep ball)

JC's deep ball isn't particularly accurate. He was ranked 27th in the NFL in passes over 40 yards.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

If we shop Campbell, how are other teams supposed to value him? We don't have a QB on our roster who can handle the position currently, so we would be right back in the free agent market (Where Leftwich is as good a solution as any). If it's a sellers market, and no buyers are willing to throw in more than a second rounder, I'd tell them to get lost.

The undertone to your argument is that Campbell's eventual failure in Zorn's offense is inevitable, but you haven't defended that with anything but hearsay and speculation. Lots of people on this fourm (myself included) do disagree with the premise that you have presented, citing measurable evidence such as improved QB rating and pass efficiency in 2008. While it's theoretically possible that you are right, the "lots of people will disagree with me" angle just isn't all that convincing.

Your proposal is another 2nd round pick in trade for a ton of unnecessary offensive turnover, at the most fundamental positions on the team plus tons of unquantifiable scouting uncertainties that come with the change. Is it worth it? Maybe, but it seems like a lot of accounting work just to prove we might be able to break even.

------------

P.S. Past work I've done on this fourm and on my blog has estimated (roughly) that the average expectation for a 2nd round pick is somewhere between 2-3 wins (over replacement) over the life of a rookie contract. That's roughly Campbell's 2008 value alone, depending on whose metrics you deal with.

While a rough analysis is certainly not a be all end all, it's a tough, tough mountain to climb to prove that making Byron Leftwich the Skins starting QB right now is the best move for the Washington Redskins.

Got to tell you GT i think a lot of times your posts shed light on our discussions around here. Way too many Skins fans somehow ignore the significant improvement JC made from '07 to '08 within the context of a brand new system to boot. His footwork got better, his control of the ball to avoid fumbles was drastically improved and he began to make quicker decisions (especially moving the ball with his own two legs). There is no logical reasoning that says he won't make strides again this year and even in the things we know are weaknesses, like delivery time and accuracy (bigger targets are going to help that IMO). Bottom line is it strikes me as ABSURD to write the kid off when the consensus is it takes a couple years to get up to speed in the WCO and JC works his tail off to improve.