Historical Economic Grace Period?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I have a simple question: Historically, how long does it take for a President/Congress' actions to show up in the economy?
Clearly, the current economy lays at Bush and the last Congress' feet. So, legitimately, at what point does the situation fully rest on Pres. Obama, and this Congresses feet?

I believe it would take a minimum of 4 months to judge initial results, and by 1 year, it would be 80-90% of the current crews choices. Does anyone else have an opinion, or economic data to let me know. Thanks

It's a major fallacy to think the President of the United States can have a significant impact on the economy in the first place.

There are things they can do, but prevent a recession, or pull us out of one? Impossible. Most of the economy is way out of the government's hands.

The most impact you can expect from lawmakers is to provide the stimulus to shorten the length of a recession. When it takes effect? Very hard to say. Most top economists think with a stimulus package the economy will bounce back in 2010.

But it would eventually bounce back even without a stimulus. It just might take longer.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

It's a major fallacy to think the President of the United States can have a significant impact on the economy in the first place.

There are things they can do, but prevent a recession, or pull us out of one? Impossible. Most of the economy is way out of the government's hands.

The most impact you can expect from lawmakers is to provide the stimulus to shorten the length of a recession. When it takes effect? Very hard to say. Most top economists think with a stimulus package the economy will bounce back in 2010.

But it would eventually bounce back even without a stimulus. It just might take longer.

I specifically said President/Congress- obviously the economy is cyclical and the government's actions simply "buffer" it in some ways. I was really wondering more about HISTORICAL results, then opening another round of "Obama speak". That was already going on in a different thread, or 2 or 3.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I specifically said President/Congress- obviously the economy is cyclical and the government's actions simply "buffer" it in some ways. I was really wondering more about HISTORICAL results, then opening another round of "Obama speak". That was already going on in a different thread, or 2 or 3.

I have no idea what you're talking about and it seems you have misunderstood me.

The opening post in this thread seemed to indicate that you were placing blame for the current economy at the feet of Bush and the congress of 2000-2008. And that you were looking for a time period at which you could begin passing judgment on Obama.

My response was neither against nor in defense of President Obama. I'm merely pointing out that one cannot expect the government to have a significant impact on the economy. That IS the historical result. Economies bounce back not because of the actions of their government, but because of innovation by the people, the cyclical nature of business, and the relative health of other economies around the world.

It is the Federal Reserve that has the greatest impact on the economy. But even they have relative little recourse to drive the economy where they wish it to go.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I have no idea what you're talking about and it seems you have misunderstood me.

The opening post in this thread seemed to indicate that you were placing blame for the current economy at the feet of Bush and the congress of 2000-2008. And that you were looking for a time period at which you could begin passing judgment on Obama.

My response was neither against nor in defense of President Obama. I'm merely pointing out that one cannot expect the government to have a significant impact on the economy. That IS the historical result. Economies bounce back not because of the actions of their government, but because of innovation by the people, the cyclical nature of business, and the relative health of other economies around the world.

It is the Federal Reserve that has the greatest impact on the economy. But even they have relative little recourse to drive the economy where they wish it to go.

Fair enough. I guess I think government policy has definite impact, be it activist or laissez-faire(which i prefer). And also that in American History we might be able to see some trends from when Presidents and Congress transitions.