King predicts Haynesworth to Redskins

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Ok, found your post, sorry i missed it earlier.



I guess this is how i look at it:

1) Through what means do you think a salary floor could be established without involving the owners? I ask this because:
2) The owners would NEVER agree to a salary floor without a salary cap. They have no financial reason to do so.

here is my logic on the series of events as i see them unfolding:

2010
1. Assuming the CBA expires, there will be no salary floor or salary cap in 2010. Since there will be very few players eligible for unrestricted free agency (due to players needing to have 6 years of NFL service to become eligible), very few players will be able to sign big money deals. That, combined with the declining economy means there will not be that much money thrown around in free agency in 2010. BOTTOM LINE: The huge payday many players are foolishly expecting simply won't happen.

2. While few players will be seeing signicant salary increases in 2010, a large number of players will not get the modest pay increases they are used to. Thats because there will be no salary floor. Ever year, small market teams like Greenbay, Arizona, and Detroit are well under the salary floor. Instead of pursuing big-name free agents, these teams typically extend contracts and pay their own players more money in that year. Its pretty much the exact opposite of what the skins do - we constantly push money off and backload contracts to free up cap space. Well these teams give their players money up front just to meet the salary floor. If you hadnt guessed, players really really like this. However, in 2010, teams will have no incentive to do this, and players wont get paid. BOTTOM LINE: Players on small market teams will not get the "raises" they are accustomed to.

3. Since 2010 is uncapped, it means teams that cannot release aging, underperforming veterans due to the cap hit it would normally create... will get to release all those aging, underperforming veterans. And how are these aging, underperforming veterans going to feel when they are released and on the market and no one is going to pay them anywhere near the money they would have been making if they had stayed on their former team? Not too happy, i imagine. BOTTOM LINE: These players will be screwed by the capless year.

2011
4. Ok, 2010 was rough on players with less than 6 years of NFL service but now everyone who would have been a free agent in 2010 plus those players who were normally scheduled to become free agents in 2011 are eligible for free agency in a capless year... but will they get the payday they are hoping for? No, because the owners are preparing for a lockout and they arent going to sign players to huge contracts only to have them sit. Lockouts arent good for anybody. BOTTOM LINE: Players will finally realize that the CBA with its salary cap and salary floor rules was really a good system. Now that they arent getting paid, they are going to make sure the Union and the Owners work something out.

How does all this get resloved? I dont know exactly. But a salary cap/salary floor system is in the players interest and its in the owners interest. The main reason the owners voted to void the current CBA is because guys like Dan Snyder and Jerry Jones dont think that they should have to give their hard earned money to lazy owners of small market teams. So the big market teams voted to get rid of the CBA.

So why did the lazy owners of small market teams want to cancel the CBA? Well, they are lazy and they like getting free money from guys like Snyder and Jerry jones, and that want more of that money. However, if they cant get that money, then the next best thing is to get rid of the salary floor, so they can stop incurring those pesky expenses like multi-million dollar player salaries.

In the end, the current CBA structure is the best thing in the history of sports, but its not perfect. It needs to be tweaked. And the only way the players and owners can continue making money is to work something out. I personally think the players will cave in first.

once they see they arent getting paid as much as they thought in an uncapped 2010 and they owners threaten a lockout in 2011, theyll make sure the union gets something done. And that something will have to include a salary cap and a salary floor. 2010 will be uncapped. If nothing is worked out prior to the 2011 lockout, that season may be uncapped too. But the NFL cannot afford to go without a season for more than one year, so you can better beleive it will be back by 2012 and it will be capped. (Unless of course, the large market teams form their own capless league and the small market teams join the UFL, but thats another post entirely)

1) Even if a floor can't be established, there will be teams (including the Redskins) willing to spend over the existing cap limit that it will more than offset the loss in player salary payments made by teams dropping below the floor. I don't see how the lack of a salary floor hurts the players when evaluated in concert with the lack of a cap.

2) You vastly overestimate the impact of the declining economy on the NFL. The NFL's TV contract calls for a fixed revenue stream and cannot be negotiated. While jersey and merchandise sales are certainly on the decline, they represent too small a piece of the pie to cause a major overall contraction in league-wide revenues. In 2010, if there is a salary cap in place, it WILL BE HIGHER than in 2009. The growth in TV revenues ensures this. It just might not grow quite as fast as it has in years past.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

1) Even if a floor can't be established, there will be teams (including the Redskins) willing to spend over the existing cap limit that it will more than offset the loss in player salary payments made by teams dropping below the floor. I don't see how the lack of a salary floor hurts the players when evaluated in concert with the lack of a cap.

Sorry if i wasnt clear in my argument, but i was trying to say the lack of a salary floor hurt the players on the low market teams; while the lack of a cap is not going to be a significant benefit to the majority of players... think of it this way, there is no "cap" on rookie wages at the present. however, if there were a cap of sorts, it would only really affect players taken with the first 5-10 picks in the draft... so few players would be affected by a capless league in 2010, that the players as a whole wont feel any real benefits from it. considering owners will lock out the players in 2011, and they will refuse to end the lockout without a new CBA and a salary cap, the players will gladly allow a salary cap as a concession, since they never saw any benefits from it anyway.

Originally Posted by Schneed10

2) You vastly overestimate the impact of the declining economy on the NFL. The NFL's TV contract calls for a fixed revenue stream and cannot be negotiated. While jersey and merchandise sales are certainly on the decline, they represent too small a piece of the pie to cause a major overall contraction in league-wide revenues. In 2010, if there is a salary cap in place, it WILL BE HIGHER than in 2009. The growth in TV revenues ensures this. It just might not grow quite as fast as it has in years past.

The TV contract is a big piece of the pie, but its also the piece thats shared evenly between the teams. Ticket sales, merchandise, consessions, etc are where the owners can actually make money that they dont have to share. the difference is not as minimal as you think - the difference in ticket sales, merchandice, etc is exactly why teams like the cardinals, packers, and lions always stick close to the salary floor - The owners want to make as much of a profit as possible, and those fanbases are not large enough to provide income to compete with the larger markets like new york, SF, washington, and dallas.

As far as the economy goes, its going to get much worse. the revenue generated from ticket sales, jerseys, etc is very important to the owners and is directly related to the money fans have to spend. everywhere you go, youll find people selling season tickets. When people are struggling to make ends meet, are they going to spend $100 on a jersey? Some will, sure. But not as many as in the past. and we have to remember that the owners of these teams generally own much more than just the team. they are men with investments and ownership in a wide array of businesses. those businesses are all impacted more directly by the economy. Many of the owners also have huge loans for their teams stadiums to pay off - the easiest way to make money is to save money - to cut expenses. why else have so many teams been laying off workers lately? why else does Wade Phillips still have a job? Its because Jerry jones didnt want to have to buy out his contrac and that of a large portion of his staffs contracts and then give new money to the new coaches? The NFL is most certainly not immune to the world economic crisis. The majority of teams will not be throwing money around 2010.