How Low Can It Go?

[Schneed10]

As soon as we begin to blame the President of the United States for what is happening to the stock market, you can pretty much call the market's behavior irrational. The president of the United States has very little control over the economy, big stimulus bills or otherwise.

The fact that people are blaming Obama shows that too many have no idea what's driving the downturn, which means prices have been driven down too far.

When lending turns around this market will bounce very high. Don't worry about whether you're getting in on the ground floor, just get in before you miss it.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

As soon as we begin to blame the President of the United States for what is happening to the stock market, you can pretty much call the market's behavior irrational. The president of the United States has very little control over the economy, big stimulus bills or otherwise.

The fact that people are blaming Obama shows that too many have no idea what's driving the downturn, which means prices have been driven down too far.

When lending turns around this market will bounce very high. Don't worry about whether you're getting in on the ground floor, just get in before you miss it.

Agreed. But people ARE panicing in the stock market and many are doing so because of O' policies. I am not saying the policies do matter just that they are affecting people. O seems not to care.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by FRPLG

Agreed. But people ARE panicing in the stock market and many are doing so because of O' policies. I am not saying the policies do matter just that they are affecting people. O seems not to care.

He shouldn't care. If people want to be irrational (ie retarded) and get all panicky and sell, that's their problem. Eventually someone else will come along and buy up those devalued shares, and they will be the ones to reap the rewards when the market goes back up. From a macro level, it's all good for the United States. Some will get panicky and lose by selling now, and others will pick up those shares and gain.

It's up to the people to decide for themselves to be smart or stupid with their money. If they're looking to the President of the United States to determine what the market is going to do, then they're categorically being stupid.

[FRPLG]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

He shouldn't care. If people want to be irrational (ie retarded) and get all panicky and sell, that's their problem. Eventually someone else will come along and buy up those devalued shares, and they will be the ones to reap the rewards when the market goes back up. From a macro level, it's all good for the United States. Some will get panicky and lose by selling now, and others will pick up those shares and gain.

It's up to the people to decide for themselves to be smart or stupid with their money. If they're looking to the President of the United States to determine what the market is going to do, then they're categorically being stupid.

I see your point an d fundamentally agree but here's the rub. While his policies kill the market real devaluation is taking place. People who don't have 10 years to wait for it come back are getting screwed in the ear. It is not going to bounce straight back up. It will probably be a slow and steady rise.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

As soon as we begin to blame the President of the United States for what is happening to the stock market, you can pretty much call the market's behavior irrational. The president of the United States has very little control over the economy, big stimulus bills or otherwise.

The fact that people are blaming Obama shows that too many have no idea what's driving the downturn, which means prices have been driven down too far.

When lending turns around this market will bounce very high. Don't worry about whether you're getting in on the ground floor, just get in before you miss it.

The POTUS has very little control by himself. A Democratic POTUS with a Democratic Congress has a great deal of control. In this particular situation where the housing market has tanked due to bad loan policies, it will take some gov't intervention to fix the situation and remove the bad loans from the system. Hopefully this will restore banks confidence in each other and people's confidence in the banks. Credit should begin to flow and people will spend again.

However in the face of this economic crisis a tax increase targeted at those who drive the economy, a capital gains increase, restoration of a 45% death tax and energy/pollution taxes (which will be paid by every American who has electric service or puts gas in his/her car), coupled with huge spending increases has a great deal to do with the current drop in the markets. Will they rebound, at some point of course. We came out of the depression and the 70s, but as FRPLG mentioned, we will most likely wind up with another lost decade if Obama's administration doesn't do an about face on their current policies/positions.

For the record I'm betting on a floor of 4800.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

The POTUS has very little control by himself. A Democratic POTUS with a Democratic Congress has a great deal of control. In this particular situation where the housing market has tanked due to bad loan policies, it will take some gov't intervention to fix the situation and remove the bad loans from the system. Hopefully this will restore banks confidence in each other and people's confidence in the banks. Credit should begin to flow and people will spend again.

However in the face of this economic crisis a tax increase targeted at those who drive the economy, a capital gains increase, restoration of a 45% death tax and energy/pollution taxes (which will be paid by every American who has electric service or puts gas in his/her car), coupled with huge spending increases has a great deal to do with the current drop in the markets. Will they rebound, at some point of course. We came out of the depression and the 70s, but as FRPLG mentioned, we will most likely wind up with another lost decade if Obama's administration doesn't do an about face on their current policies/positions.

For the record I'm betting on a floor of 4800.

I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I wholeheartedly agree with the economic theories you're discussing here (and I've sung them from the mountaintops myself within these forums).

But I think a good deal of the expectations of poorer earnings were priced in around the time Obama was elected, and certainly were priced in by the time details of his stimulus bill were made available. I think the fundamentals support a bottom no lower than Dow 6000. Any decline below that point will be as irrational as the exuberance noted as same by Alan Greenspan in the late 90s.

Agree. I've just got a little less faith than you do in folks being rational.