Per Vinny Cerrato, JC is our QB this season!

[BigHairedAristocrat]

FYI, for those of you who care about stats, 12 of the 18 interceptions Cutler threw last year occurred in the 4th quarter in situations where the Broncos were trailing (due to a lousy defense).

Whereas Campbells interceptions essentially nulified the hard work of our excellent defense, Cutlers came as he was taking risks because he had no choice because his defense put the offense in a bind time and time again.

Cutler is a far superior QB than Campbell. Campbell plus our first rounder for Cutler would be the deal of the century.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Cutler is a far superior QB than Campbell. Campbell plus our first rounder for Cutler would be the deal of the century.

Right, but that's only a good thing if you're on the winning side of it.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Right, but that's only a good thing if you're on the winning side of it.

We would be. To us, Campbell is pretty much valueless in a trade because if we keep him, this will be his last year here - hes a horrible fit for our system. Campbell is going to go away for nothing after the season if we keep him on the roster this year, so essentially, we would just be trading our first rounder for a young yet proven pro-bowl quarterback ideal for the offense we run and one who can compensate for our declining line by his quick release and decision making.

Last year, Campbell had a pro-bowl LT, RB, FB, TE and WR to help him, yet he still couldnt get it done. Cutler had half the supporting cast that Campbell did, yet he still made the guys around him look better... When has Campbell carried this team? Campbell is a guy who will never singlehandedly lose a game for his team, but he also wont win any games for his team either. A QB like Cutler could put this team over the top; whether we are actually able to get him or not, is another matter.

Theres an interesting thread on extremeskins where an industrious member there found dozens of quotes from the board when the Redskins were rumored to be targeting Jason Cambpell. I found it eerily similar how many fans thought it was nonsense, how Ramsey was the QB of the future, how Gibbs, Snyder, and Cerrato all staunchly denied Campbell was a target and defended Ramsey as the QB of the future... The Skins may not be able to get Cutler, but i have no doubt they are targeting him and/or looking at other alternatives to replace Campbell - as they should be. He's not the guy we need.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

We would be. To us, Campbell is pretty much valueless in a trade because if we keep him, this will be his last year here - hes a horrible fit for our system. Campbell is going to go away for nothing after the season if we keep him on the roster this year, so essentially, we would just be trading our first rounder for a young yet proven pro-bowl quarterback ideal for the offense we run and one who can compensate for our declining line by his quick release and decision making.

Last year, Campbell had a pro-bowl LT, RB, FB, TE and WR to help him, yet he still couldnt get it done. Cutler had half the supporting cast that Campbell did, yet he still made the guys around him look better... When has Campbell carried this team? Campbell is a guy who will never singlehandedly lose a game for his team, but he also wont win any games for his team either. A QB like Cutler could put this team over the top; whether we are actually able to get him or not, is another matter.

Theres an interesting thread on extremeskins where an industrious member there found dozens of quotes from the board when the Redskins were rumored to be targeting Jason Cambpell. I found it eerily similar how many fans thought it was nonsense, how Ramsey was the QB of the future, how Gibbs, Snyder, and Cerrato all staunchly denied Campbell was a target and defended Ramsey as the QB of the future... The Skins may not be able to get Cutler, but i have no doubt they are targeting him and/or looking at other alternatives to replace Campbell - as they should be. He's not the guy we need.

I wasn't aware we had a pro bowl receiver last year. Perhaps we're not watching the same team.

Can you at least try to leave things in context? I mean, what are you trying to say when you argue that a Cutler for Campbell and a first round pick is actually just Cutler for a first round pick? You are purely speculating that Campbell won't be here next year (2010). If you are predicting that, fine, just don't extrapolate that to the next level and say he has zero value in a trade that actually involves him.

Your argument has zero basis in reality. Read through it again. It's based on like four different unlikelyhoods/unsupported statements:

1) Campbell is a bad fit for our system
2) Anyone who makes one pro-bowl automatically becomes "proven."
3) Campbell has no trade value...let's trade him!
4) Cutler is a winner, despite all evidence to the contrary

And then there's the one false statement, that Campbell has a great supporting cast. Samuels is our best lineman, but he only played in 12 games last year, and about 7 of those, he was hurt. Cooley is our best offensive player, but he had a rough year last year. Portis had a heck of a half season, but I'm not sure how that helps the passing game. Sellers had a nice year receiving passes, but that only happened like 15 times all year.

Meanwhile, once you look deeper than pro-bowls, you have Moss and Randle El, who are very underwhelming as a receiving tandem, an offensive line that includes Rabach and Jansen, not to mention R. Thomas' horiffic year, started Jason Fabini for two weeks at RT, and started Stephon Heyer for 7 weeks, and oh yeah, had the worst set of third receivers in the entire NFL.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I wasn't aware we had a pro bowl receiver last year. Perhaps we're not watching the same team.

Can you at least try to leave things in context? I mean, what are you trying to say when you argue that a Cutler for Campbell and a first round pick is actually just Cutler for a first round pick? You are purely speculating that Campbell won't be here next year (2010). If you are predicting that, fine, just don't extrapolate that to the next level and say he has zero value in a trade that actually involves him.

Your argument has zero basis in reality. Read through it again. It's based on like four different unlikelyhoods/unsupported statements:

1) Campbell is a bad fit for our system
2) Anyone who makes one pro-bowl automatically becomes "proven."
3) Campbell has no trade value...let's trade him!
4) Cutler is a winner, despite all evidence to the contrary

And then there's the one false statement, that Campbell has a great supporting cast. Samuels is our best lineman, but he only played in 12 games last year, and about 7 of those, he was hurt. Cooley is our best offensive player, but he had a rough year last year. Portis had a heck of a half season, but I'm not sure how that helps the passing game. Sellers had a nice year receiving passes, but that only happened like 15 times all year.

Meanwhile, once you look deeper than pro-bowls, you have Moss and Randle El, who are very underwhelming as a receiving tandem, an offensive line that includes Rabach and Jansen, not to mention R. Thomas' horiffic year, started Jason Fabini for two weeks at RT, and started Stephon Heyer for 7 weeks, and oh yeah, had the worst set of third receivers in the entire NFL.

are you serious? worst set of third receivers in the NFL. Since you criticize me for not qualifying my statements, how do you qualify that?

Youve taken everything ive said out of context. Its widely accepted that Campbell is a bad fit for our system and ive argued that point in various threads. You talk about our team as if its complete garbage, but its not. Its a very average team overall, but certainly a better team than Denver. I said Campbell had no value to US because we will most certainly let him walk next year... he has value to other teams running other systems, which is why we could get something for him now. And what evidence do you have that Cutler is not a winner? hes a great quarterback on a horrible team who made his teammates look better. Contrast that with Campbell - an average quarterback on an average team who doesnt fit the system and doesnt make anyone around him better. Cutler would be a better fit for this team.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Youve taken everything ive said out of context. Its widely accepted that Campbell is a bad fit for our system and ive argued that point in various threads. You talk about our team as if its complete garbage, but its not. Its a very average team overall, but certainly a better team than Denver. I said Campbell had no value to US because we will most certainly let him walk next year... he has value to other teams running other systems, which is why we could get something for him now. And what evidence do you have that Cutler is not a winner? hes a great quarterback on a horrible team who made his teammates look better. Contrast that with Campbell - an average quarterback on an average team who doesnt fit the system and doesnt make anyone around him better. Cutler would be a better fit for this team.

The problem is not that you're wrong on this issue, or that I'm wrong on this issue, it's that you seem to be totally out of touch with reality.

First point: FACT - Campbell had better numbers under Zorn than under Saunders.

Spending a lot of time repeating oneself doesn't make you any more right, if in fact, there is no element of incompatibility between Campbell and Zorn. I know this is a fundamental belief of yours, but its at best, not necessarily right (or wrong). You have to realize that if you want to make sense. It's not something you can use to prove anything else, because you can't establish that it actually exists.

Common knowledge does not prove this because it is not widely believed.

Second point: I jumped into this thread with a few simplistic regressions on Campbell's numbers, and then Cutlers. I linked you to thier pfr pages in an attempt to show that they're pretty similar. Cutler's been more efficient to date. But, they're close. They both have promising numbers, but neither has "accomplished" anything that would lead you to believe they are established.

FACT - If Campbell is not established, then Cutler is not established. Any argument for one over the other is based in their perceived potential.

Third point: You committ logical fallacies out the ying yang. This is because the evidence doesn't support your position. So 16-20, 80.4 career passer Jason Campbell becomes "just average". While 17-20, 87.1 career passer Jay Cutler becomes "a great quarterback". You are using designations to manipulate reality to fit your description of it. That's a logical fallacy.

Keep in mind that we're not arguing in utopian terms, "which man would you rather have at quarterback?" You've actually stated that a 16-20, 80.4 QB AND A FIRST ROUND PICK for a 17-20, 87.1 QB would be the steal trade of the century. Um, holy crap. Well, gee, of course there's no evidence to defend that statement! I'm guessing if we actually did that, there'd be a Fire Vinny petition at least 20,000 signitures deep within an hour. But apparently, that's the steal of the century. We just don't know it.

Fourth point: What players does Washington have on it's offense that are better than league average at their position? Cooley, for one. Portis, is another. Sellers is above league average, but he plays less than a third receiver. Chris Samuels is still above average. Randle El is above average as far as 2nd receivers go, but he's not going to make a WR corps by himself. Also, Campbell, but you'd have to get your head out of Jay Cutler's rear to see that.

That's it. That's all the above average players on our offense.

Meanwhile, Denver has Tony Sheffler whose an above average TE. They have Ryan Clady at LT, who had a great rookie year. Casey Wiegmann is above average for a C. Chris Kuper and Ben Hamilton have been an excellent young Guard combo for them. That's 4/5 of the line. You could argue either way on Marshall or Royal being above average, I'm not going to dispute it either way. The running backs are just a revolving door though, they don't have a Portis type player (anymore).

It's pretty clear that Cutler has the better supporting cast, offensively. Yeah, his defense sucks. Yes, that makes a difference, especially in the record. But you have to at least try to acknoledge how that has affected the QB rating discrepancy.

Or you could continue with the pseudo analysis, and claiming common knowledge a day after saying "even though 99%" of you won't agree with me.

are you serious? worst set of third receivers in the NFL. Since you criticize me for not qualifying my statements, how do you qualify that?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Sorry, second worst. Tennessee actually threw at Justin McCareins 73 times for his 30 catches. Although, he was a starting receiver, somehow.