Somebody please try to convince me that the FO has a plan.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

However, if we are to look at the whole point of this discussion - first round quarterbacks - you will find far more than 50% of first round qb picks fail to meet "franchise QB" qualification. If you want a franchise QB, two first round picks is not too much to give up. youre more likely to get a franchise QB trading two first round picks for a proven vet than you are taking your chances in the draft. Whether Cutler is a franchise QB or not is debatable...

Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then..

How many World Championships would Ben Big need to win as the leader of his team to overcome your statistical requirements for him to qualify as a Franchise QB?

I think you've gotten carried away by statistics. Big Ben is certainly a Franchise QB.

[skins89moss]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

How many World Championships would Ben Big need to win as the leader of his team to overcome your statistical requirements for him to qualify as a Franchise QB?

I think you've gotten carried away by statistics. Big Ben is certainly a Franchise QB.

Well Big Ben has a contract like a franchise QB, so he must be a Franchise QB

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.

I suppose the term franchise QB can be debateable, but i dont think just starting for three years and improving is enough. The guys you mentioned are about the only guys I can think of who qualify for the term. I suppose to be fair, we could add Mike Vick to the list, although he doesnt fit the typical mold of a QB. But just looking at your list of first rounders, you show that only SEVEN franchise QBs were drafted in the first round of the draft in the past 10 years. Assuming 32 first round picks in ten years, thats only 7 franchise QBs found in 320 picks. If we want to look at all the rounds, and we include the other guys you mentioned, its something like 15 franchise QBs found in 2560 picks (32 teams x 10years x 8 rounds - 7 rounds plus 32 comp picks).

As you would agree, finding a franchise QB is exceedingly hard. For that reason, two first rounders is not too much to give up for a franchise QB, in my opinion.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, if we clearly define what we mean by franchise QB, it wouldn't be so debatable, we'd have an answer.

Sure, everyone's definition is going to be different, but yours does appear to be "what I think they can become", which isn't particularly helpful to me.

To me, any QB who has five accrued seasons and has started at least three full seasons (48 games) with either progressively improving results or steady-state results in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD/INT ratio is a franchise QB. Draft position matters in projections only. Once a guy has 5 full seasons and 48+ games as a starter, doesn't matter whether he was the first overall pick or undrafted.

For example: I don't refer to Ben Roethlisberger as a franchise QB because his production has been so unsteady. If he improves next year, he's definately a franchise QB. If he collapses and costs the Steelers a playoff birth, well then.

Franchise QBs drafted 1st round in the past 10 years include:
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
**David Carr
Chad Pennington
Donovan McNabb
Daunte Culpepper

**Carr techincally qualified by my definition in Houston, but he never played a game as a "franchise QB". He was outsed after his 5th year, which means he loses his title. Tim Couch was nearly the same deal, but his production was a lot more uneven than Carr's.

Essentially about one guy a year, in the first round only. Roethlisberger and Campbell are on the cusp. Cutler and Rogers are two years away, at current levels. Leinart, Quinn, Ryan, and Flacco all have plenty to prove, but should all get here one day.

Franchise QBs drafted after the 1st round, last 10 years include:
Marc Bulger (6th)
Tom Brady (6th)
Drew Brees (2nd)


David Garrard is just two games away from qualifying, abscent another declining season. Matt Schaub is on pace, but needs to stay healthy for the next two years. Kyle Orton is one strong, full year as a starter away. Derek Anderson and Matt Cassel both are two strong years away. Tony Romo is a half season away.

Anyway, that's how I define franchise QB. Even though the 50% figure has historically held, even by my defintion, the franchise QB explosion is coming. Cutler is just one of the many.

LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.

Rothlisberger does not strike me as an ideal example (for various reasons - he actually did improve if you take out the motorcycle/appendix year; the "he's a winner" "analysis" ignores the tremendous run game and world class defense he has - i.e. he wouldn't be winning Super Bowls for the Redskins, etc - and actually that is exactly what Tripp says if you read his words) but the sort of subjective analysis represented above is the type of thinking that makes a team willing to trade Campbell, two 1sts, and a 3rd for Jay Cutler. While relying on statistics might lead you astray now and again, empirical data will more often than not lead you to better analysis. Hence GTripp brings stronger analysis on a consistent basis than most anyone else on this site.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Rothlisberger does not strike me as an ideal example (for various reasons - he actually did improve if you take out the motorcycle/appendix year; the "he's a winner" "analysis" ignores the tremendous run game and world class defense he has - i.e. he wouldn't be winning Super Bowls for the Redskins, etc - and actually that is exactly what Tripp says if you read his words) but the sort of subjective analysis represented above is the type of thinking that makes a team willing to trade Campbell, two 1sts, and a 3rd for Jay Cutler. While relying on statistics might lead you astray now and again, empirical data will more often than not lead you to better analysis. Hence GTripp brings stronger analysis on a consistent basis than most anyone else on this site.

Well of course if you put Ben on our team he's not winning SB's. No kidding. But if you put Campbell on Pittsburgh are they winning 2 SB's? I don't think so. Even though Ben had a bad SB in 05 he played his ass off on the road in the playoff games that got them there. And of course what he did in this past SB is what gets you in the Hall of Fame. Bottom line is Ben gets in done when it matters most.

Both Campbell and Cutler had a similar QB rating. However who is the better QB? Cutler hands down.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

LOL. Yeah right. For once chill out w/ all those stats. You simply can't judge Ben R. by QB rating, completion%, yards per attempt and TD Int rate. Ben R. is one of the best playmaking QB's in the NFL who has two rings and got his team to the AFC championship his rookie year. Pretty strong resume for a 5 year player. If I'm putting together a fantasy team Ben's not my first pick, but if I'm starting a real team he'd be pretty high on the list.

Okay, and my team kicks your team's ass. That's pretty simple. You load up with playmakers, and the team I'm building will be actually good.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Okay, and my team kicks your team's ass. That's pretty simple. You load up with playmakers, and the team I'm building will be actually good.

You're missing my point. What I'm saying is you can't judge SOME players by a stat sheet, and Ben R. is one of those players. He's probably never going to put up stats like Manning, Brady or Brees but he can still be a very effective NFL QB. Do you agree with me? Yes or no?