Will Jason Campbell return?

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

What's laughable is how my entire anaylsis was based on my carefull study of his statistics this morning. Which reveal quite clearly, as i stated, that he is making progress. But at such a ridiculously slow rate, that he could possibly throw 25 td's(reasonable) when he's 33 years old. He's been in the league 5 years brother. 5! He's halfway out of the league already. The numbers are there. I told you, at best, he's turning into a game manager. He'll never be in the pro bowl.

Get over it. Don't be so blindly supporting.

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Yeah, but that is not careful statistical analysis. That is carefully looking at statistics and then drawing an unreasonable conclusion. You basically conclude that based upon his previous statistics it is impossible that he can throw for more than two extra touchdowns a year every year for the next five years. That is completely random and is not "statistical" analysis. That is saying, A=B therefore C=D. There is no correlation between throwing for 10 (in 7 starts), 12 (in 13 starts), and 13 (in 16 starts) touchdowns per season. Hell, if you wanted to really better your argument you would say that his touchdown/game ratio has decreased every year so by the time he is 33 he will be throwing for 0 touchdowns (which would fit with your argument because you would say he'll be out of the league). I'm not even saying Campbell is a great QB, I am just saying you are making your argument by 1) coming to a conclusion, 2) cherry picking statistics, 3) arbitrarily assigning meaning to those statistics so that they fit with your conclusion. That is not an empirical argument.

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

I disagree with you obviously on the validity of the statistics i've pulled. Anyone can "cherry pick" statistics and make them reveal something that may not be there. Yes, i did use the statistics i chose to use. On the other side of that coin, anyone can tear them down by continuing to break down the figures ad nauseum.

Bottom line. Little steps don't equal big steps. I want big steps.

Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Fair enough. But this year is the one you want to look at for "big" progress. Second year in a system, second year with Zorn as QB coach, and hopefully will get at least limited production from the 2008 draft class. This year is the "make or break" year.

Plus, as I tried to show above, if you take your exact same metrics and apply them to everybody's favorite Super Bowl winning QB you get basically the same outcome. And if it is statistical "progress" you are looking for then you don't get that with Roethlisberger's first three seasons either. He didn't make a "big jump" statistically until year four and then dropped back down (regressed to the mean?) last year.

That's the part i'm worried about. Quarterbacks make WR's better, and the offensive line makes a QB better. So my chain of logic is this. Does Derrick Dockery solve our OL issues from last year(one guy goes down and we don't have adequate depth)?

Are we hinging Jason's success on his abilities, or the progress of our often injured 2nd round draft class of last year.

I think QB's that make minimal progress every year need substantial help from the cast around them. And i don't see that improvement on offense. Therefore, i can't predict success.

[SC Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Monksdown

That's the part i'm worried about. Quarterbacks make WR's better, and the offensive line makes a QB better. So my chain of logic is this. Does Derrick Dockery solve our OL issues from last year(one guy goes down and we don't have adequate depth)?

Are we hinging Jason's success on his abilities, or the progress of our often injured 2nd round draft class of last year.

I think QB's that make minimal progress every year need substantial help from the cast around them. And i don't see that improvement on offense. Therefore, i can't predict success.

My solution does not make for good discussion board material, but my argument would be that you have to wait for this year to make a real judgment one way or the other. And the thing is, you really have nothing really to lose. If Campbell fails then his contract is up and you let him walk. If he succeeds you resign him (and if it is an uncapped year he is an RFA anyway). That is why all the trade talk with Cutler and Sanchez made no sense, except for the fact that DS thinks this team is a perennial Super Bowl contender and can win "right now." The rest of us know a little bit better and realize there are substantial potential deficiencies with this team, most notably age and depth (another reason it made no sense to execute a big time trade for a QB).

The major problem with Campbell at this point, and what most detractors are circling around with their criticism of him, is his lack of willingness to take chances with his throws. The physical tools are there, he can make the throws, he is actually an accurate passer (and has improved each year), so the question becomes whether the tentative part of his game is correctable? That is what we have to find out this year. Same system, so he should have greater confidence. If he simply lacks the athletic arrogance (which you can see in an extreme form with Cutler, and is what separates Roethisberger from Campbell despite the statistical comparability) to take some chances then he does have a limited ceiling. If he can become more agressive then he can be successful. So that is what we have to find out in 2009 ... and we do so with very little risk.

[Monksdown]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

My solution does not make for good discussion board material, but my argument would be that you have to wait for this year to make a real judgment one way or the other. And the thing is, you really have nothing really to lose. If Campbell fails then his contract is up and you let him walk. If he succeeds you resign him (and if it is an uncapped year he is an RFA anyway). That is why all the trade talk with Cutler and Sanchez made no sense, except for the fact that DS thinks this team is a perennial Super Bowl contender and can win "right now." The rest of us know a little bit better and realize there are substantial potential deficiencies with this team, most notably age and depth (another reason it made no sense to execute a big time trade for a QB).

The major problem with Campbell at this point, and what most detractors are circling around with their criticism of him, is his lack of willingness to take chances with his throws. The physical tools are there, he can make the throws, he is actually an accurate passer (and has improved each year), so the question becomes whether the tentative part of his game is correctable? That is what we have to find out this year. Same system, so he should have greater confidence. If he simply lacks the athletic arrogance (which you can see in an extreme form with Cutler, and is what separates Roethisberger from Campbell despite the statistical comparability) to take some chances then he does have a limited ceiling. If he can become more agressive then he can be successful. So that is what we have to find out in 2009 ... and we do so with very little risk.

I totally agree with your analysis. Which brings me back to a concern i voiced yesterday about his athletic arrogance(as you called it). I think that's just a part of who he is. He is cautious to a fault.