North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Didnt know it could be traced, thats very interesting. I just dont think they would be the ones to fire the weapon, more likely to pass it off to another to use agaisnt us.

I think China would go absolutely ape-shit, they wouldnt want a US backed country up against their border. NK would cease to exist after they launch a nuclear missle.

It would be WW3, Europe, US, SK, Aust, Japan, would probably engage fairly quickly. China's hands would be tied, no way could they defend a pre emptive launch of a nuclear weapon.

I don't think it's as simple as them having some barometer showing "This is X's enriched uranium", but I positive they would be able to break down the composition and tell which reactor (and make) it came from, thereby narrowing down the possibilities.

Nuclear bomb debris holds clues to who planted it - science-in-society - 08 November 2010 - New Scientist


As far as NK goes, I wouldn't put it past China to invade NK before we could just so that scenario you mention didn't happen.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

I don't think it's as simple as them having some barometer showing "This is X's enriched uranium", but I positive they would be able to break down the composition and tell which reactor (and make) it came from, thereby narrowing down the possibilities.

Nuclear bomb debris holds clues to who planted it - science-in-society - 08 November 2010 - New Scientist


As far as NK goes, I wouldn't put it past China to invade NK before we could just so that scenario you mention didn't happen.

Sounds more like you would have to make an educated guess at best. We could let Collen Powell present the evidence to the UN. I hear he is pretty good at that. You say don't fear it getting into the wrong hands but that's our goverments biggest fear and why we care who has the capability.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

It shouldn't be a fear. Nuclear material can be traced to its origin, so anything nuclear passed on to a terrorist would be traced back to NK in the event something were to happen. At that point, NK (or any other country) would be treated exactly the same as if they had launched the weapon themselves.

Take for instance, Pakistan. They are known supporters of terrorists, and hold nuclear weapons. Not a single solitary nuclear device or materials has ever been passed on. They know their existence would end if it did.

I agree with you on this. Generically, sometimes it seems like people think nuclear weapon grade material is something that you just get and then bing bang boom you have a bomb. It's not really that simple. Further, even if a terrorist group were to get hold of something usable, getting it anywhere that it would be effective is nearly impossible as well.

All that said, comparing Pakistan's situation with NK, is not a good comparison. Although Pakistan does give aid and comfort to terrorists at some level, they are not a pariah in the international community, and their nuclear level is directly in response to India's equivalent threat. Pakistan needs to be seen as a good nuclear player, for fear of international backlash that would empower India. NK, on the other hand, is a dictatorial regime, and absolutely despises the West, and international rules.

One last difference is that from a perspective of haves and have nots, Pakistan is in the company of the haves on nuclear weapons which entitles them to more leeway, NK is a have not, and there is a belligerence towards all haves that comes from that.

[CRedskinsRule]

I think that if they feel isolated enough, and China apparently helped draft this newest sanction, they will reach out more to Iran, and Japan becomes a very effective "don't tread on me message". I'm not saying it will happen, but only that they could see a path where Iran feeds them nuclear material, and trade, and bolstered by that relationship they think they can get away with a nuke on Japan. It would not be the first time a closed regime misunderstood the way US policy gets made.

[JoeRedskin]

Young inexperienced leader. Established military bureaucracy. Closed political system in which dissent is punished and information closely controlled. Economic dependency. Nine million active and active reserve army (1M active; 8M, active reserve).

Bad things my friends. Bad things.

[Alvin Walton]

Lots of 'em no doubt.
How professional they are is the question.

■The Reserve Military Training Unit consist of approximately 1.7 million persons (men 17-45 and unmarried women 17-30) who are not either in active duty or important rear area personnel. They are mobilized under supervision of provincial military units, for a total of forty days' training out of the year.
■The Worker-Peasant Militia is a combination of older men aged 45-60, along with men ages 17-45 and unmarried women ages 17-30 who are not included in Reserve Military Training Unit. They train for a total of thirty days out of the year. Their current numbers stand at 4.1 million.
■The Young Red Guards consist of 1.2 million male and female Higher Middle (High) School students aged 14-16. They are subject to a mandatory four-hour drill session every Saturday and a total of 160 hours of on-campus drills annually. A total of 450 hours of off-campus training is also mandatory.


Reserve Military Training Unit form the core of the reserves and are under the command of the Ministry of Defense in peace AND in wartime. Party Civil Defense Departments keep track of the Worker-Peasant Militia and the Young Red Guards in peace time, but the Ministry of Defense in contingencies.

Korean People's Army

[CRedskinsRule]

This is a great look at the demilitarized zone closeup:

North And South Korea DMZ - Business Insider

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

This is a great look at the demilitarized zone closeup:

North And South Korea DMZ - Business Insider

That was a great read.

[CRedskinsRule]

Analysis: Bellicose North Korea forces China to shift stance on old friend - Yahoo! News

This article has some interesting inside Chinese political views.

[Alvin Walton]

So now the North Korean army says the armistice is invalid.
Really doesnt mean much unless you start shooting.

[Daseal]

My girlfriend is Korean. I find it interested that her family and in general, Koreans in general, seem to be ignoring all of this news. They just figure it's the North being the North. They see it as nothing but empty threats. Very itneresting.

[HailGreen28]

South Korea Flirts With Nuclear Ideas as North Blusters

NY Times.com: By MARTIN FACKLER and CHOE SANG-HUN

"SEOUL, South Korea — As their country prospered, South Koreans have largely shrugged off the constant threat of a North Korean attack. But breakthroughs in the North’s missile and nuclear programs and fiery threats of war have heightened fears in the South that even small miscalculations by the new and untested leaders of each country could have disastrous consequences."

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Daseal

My girlfriend is Korean. I find it interested that her family and in general, Koreans in general, seem to be ignoring all of this news. They just figure it's the North being the North. They see it as nothing but empty threats. Very itneresting.

Now we know why you kick puppies.

[NC_Skins]

North Korea Says North Korea Is a Great Place for Human Rights - Alexander Abad-Santos - The Atlantic Wire

[NC_Skins]

China mobilizing troops, jets near Korea | Washington Free Beacon


Looks like China is stepping up the forces on the border.