North Korea: Threat or Blackmailer?

[Alvin Walton]

Yea buddy, gunboat diplomacy comin your way!

U.S. would seek regime change in North Korea if attack occurs - Washington Times

[HailGreen28]

Hopefully the DPRK will die with a whimper, not a bang. Like the USSR did.

[CRedskinsRule]

daily first look

North Korea's aggression could strengthen US-China alliance | Fox News

Tensions With North Korea Unsettle South’s Economy

N Korea said to move second missile to coast - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera English

and oddly:
North Korea urges Russia, Britain to evacuate embassies| Herald Sun

A spokesman for Britain's Foreign Office told London's Daily Telegraph:

"We can confirm that the British embassy in Pyongyang received a communication from the North Korean government this morning.

"It said that the North Korean government would be unable to guarantee the safety of embassies and international organisations in the country in the event of conflict from April 10."

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Loved this tweet from HTTR24-7:

Someone needs to sit Kim Jong Un down and show him Zero Dark Thirty.

[CRedskinsRule]

I find it interesting that when a SK exec from Kaesong said that NK told them to be out by the 10th, he quickly backtracked, and yet now it looks like that was a deadline NK is imposing. I also find it interesting that the SK minister who at first said a 4th nuke test looked likely, now says it's routine movement. I don't think we are getting the real story from our government on all of this.

From the NK newspiece organization(google kcna):

DPRK FM Statement Distributed as UNSC Official Document
Pyongyang, April 6 (KCNA) -- A statement of the DPRK Foreign Ministry was distributed as an official document of the UN Security Council S/2013/194 on April 1. The statement was made public on March 26 as regards the fact that the U.S. hostile act against the DPRK has reached the phase of a nuclear war.

I think our analysts really don't want to believe a madman may be in charge over there, but there rhetoric is way above anything in the near recent past. You can go to that KCNA link, and look at other periods of tension (I did that over this past weekend) and you can see that the words and rhetoric was never anything close to as bellicose and drumlike as it is now. Yes some of the phrases (referring to SK as a puppet, and touch and go politics, and some others) are similar, but this time, they consistently refer to the honorable final battle of reunification under the banner of Songun (or noble fight). And to the fact that the US has "laid seige" to them by the sanctions and refusing to acknowledge their rights as a sovereign nation. and so on and so on.

As the NK said, the moment of explosion is near. I really hope it's a temper tantrum, and not a "final battle to decide the outcome of the Korean Unification" as they are describing it.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I find it interesting that when a SK exec from Kaesong said that NK told them to be out by the 10th, he quickly backtracked, and yet now it looks like that was a deadline NK is imposing. I also find it interesting that the SK minister who at first said a 4th nuke test looked likely, now says it's routine movement. I don't think we are getting the real story from our government on all of this.

From the NK newspiece organization(google kcna):


I think our analysts really don't want to believe a madman may be in charge over there, but there rhetoric is way above anything in the near recent past. You can go to that KCNA link, and look at other periods of tension (I did that over this past weekend) and you can see that the words and rhetoric was never anything close to as bellicose and drumlike as it is now. Yes some of the phrases (referring to SK as a puppet, and touch and go politics, and some others) are similar, but this time, they consistently refer to the honorable final battle of reunification under the banner of Songun (or noble fight). And to the fact that the US has "laid seige" to them by the sanctions and refusing to acknowledge their rights as a sovereign nation. and so on and so on.

As the NK said, the moment of explosion is near. I really hope it's a temper tantrum, and not a "final battle to decide the outcome of the Korean Unification" as they are describing it.

I read somewhere (probably on one of the links in this thread) that Kim Jong Un ramped up his rhetoric so the top military commanders dont think hes a p#$$y. I dont know if its due to legitimate concerns of a military coup or just to make himself look strong.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

I read somewhere (probably on one of the links in this thread) that Kim Jong Un ramped up his rhetoric so the top military commanders dont think hes a p#$$y. I dont know if its due to legitimate concerns of a military coup or just to make himself look strong.

He's the kid of a dictator who was the kid of a dictator, historically this does not bode well for rational decision making.

[CRedskinsRule]

For those thinking China has a handle on this:
From Yahoo news (don't hate the source):

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm, joined The Daily Ticker remotely from New Dehli to discuss whether Washington should be concerned about the North Korean threats.

...

Bremmer was in China over the last couple of days and met with Chinese officials. "They wanted to make it clear that they hoped the U.S. recognized how much more the Chinese are trying to do to push the North Koreans," he says. "[And] they made it clear they don't really have a direct line to Kim Jon-un right now."

"That should worry us," Bremmer adds.

[CRedskinsRule]

And now for today's pronouncement:
North Korea warns foreigners to leave South

Yes, I am buying into this guy thinks he can start, and win, a war on the Korean peninsula. I also believe that he deems respect very important(along the ways a mafia boss might look at respect), and that when he sees his warnings being so totally laughed at and ignored, both by SK citizens and foreign governments, he may very well become of the mindset "I'll show them who's effing around".

While I do think a missile test allows him to spin it as the forces of the DPRK standing up to the US, I'm not sure it's enough to settle his ego, or need for respect from the rest of the world.

[CRedskinsRule]

Seems like the appropriate response (as opposed to the my ship's bigger than your ship gunship mentality of earlier)

Is the U.S. working to de-escalate a North Korean standoff?

[NC_Skins]

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...acuate-South??

NORTH Korea has completed preparations for a mid-range missile launch tomorrow from its east coast, officials in Seoul have revealed – just hours after foreigners living in South Korea were warned to quit the country.

Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...acuate-South??




Eventually, if you keep talking shit, you are going to get smacked in the mouth. Telling people to leave SK, and then firing a "test" missile. It's asking to be attacked.


I still don't think this is Jong Un's doing, but more the people behind him. I think he still has to show his people and generals that he's a top dog just like his dad and grand pops.

I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I just don't understand why people(media) assume this is a test. I hope that the military isn't assuming that. I think he believes his country to be on equal par with the US now that he has useful nukes, and his military believes in the strength of numbers in terms of soldiers.

If it were an actual attack, do you think they'd be so obvious about it? One would think they'd be more sneaky.

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan. I'm not saying countries in the region shouldnt be worried, but i'm not worried about N Koreas actual threat to the US.

The US and allied countries have thousands of nukes with essentially unlimited range, most of which are significantly more powerful than anything North Korea has.

North Korea might think its on par with the US, but its not.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

Also, saying North Korea has "useful" nukes is a bit of an overstatement. they've only got a handful of nukes, and i'd be shocked if anyof them were even hiroshima-grade. Also, their missles dont have the range to go much further than Japan.

I stand corrected. North Korea has tested a missle that could hit Alaska.

North Korea's missile capabilities

[Alvin Walton]

Its certainly possible it may not be a test.
Our analysts have stated that they do not have a missle that can reach Guam.
If that is correct and its not a test then South Korea or Japan will get nuked tomorrow.

Or we will shoot it down right after it enters international space.
Imagine the can of worms that will open.