FoxSports: Ranking the NFL: Insider grading on every franchise

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Daseal

Gtripp, his prediction also said 'miss the playoffs' which we did. I don't think the author considers it any more than a subjective list. Any time you do something like this, that is all it can be. He's putting his opinion down based on what he's seen in the NFL. In the grand scheme of NFL predictions, I consider +/- 2 games pretty solid if you can do it relatively regularly.

I just can't get up in arms. People say we should be 12th? Based on what. I would love to see your list. A team that has made the playoffs twice in 10 years being 12th? I guess I just don't understand why people feel like the Redskins are constantly being slighted. Here's an idea, win and we'll stop being overlooked. It's that whole you have to earn respect type deal.

I'm glad that he was able to accurately forecast that we would be one of 20 teams to miss the playoffs. That's difficult to do, you know

The last two years, I had the Redskins at 10-6, and then 8-8 preseason. So I missed by one game in two years. Schein missed by at least two games last year, but if you read between the lines, he probably missed by 3 or 4. When you predict a team "will not win more than 6 games", you probably aren't predicting a 6-10 season.

+/- 2 games is good accuracy in baseball. In football, it's not even outside the statistical definition of random chance, at least in between 6 and 10 victories (i.e. predicting a 2-14 team would win 4 games is a much better prediction than calling a 10-6 team to win 8 games). Saying he was close on us last year is being incredibly charitable with your definition of close. He missed badly. It's not a crime, it's just a bad prediction.

You know, the Redskins have made the playoffs 3 out of 10 times since 1999. Out of 32 teams (31 of which have competed in all ten seasons, the other has yet to make the postseason) playoff berth frequency is as follows:

*denotes SB winner

9 - Colts*
7 - Eagles
6 - Pats*, Bucs*, Titans, Steelers*, Seahawks, Giants*
5 - Packers, Rams*, Ravens*
4 - Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, Vikings, Cowboys
3 - Redskins, Panthers, Falcons, Bears, Raiders, Jaguars
2 - Saints, Chiefs, 49ers
1 - Bills, Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, Lions
0 - Texans [7 years]

Lions and Bills tie for the longest playoff drought, followed by the Texans, and then the 49ers, Raiders, and Browns tie for third.

17 teams can sport more playoff appearances in the last ten years than the Redskins, or roughly half the league. But I threw in the SB winner distribution to show that all the SB winners of the past ten years are consistently in the playoffs, and that the difference between the 4 appearance teams and 3 appearance teams may just be chance. It's not like the Dolphins or the Vikings have been a consistently better team over the last ten years than the Redskins. They've just been to the playoffs one additional time.

So you want a list where the Redskins are a top 12 organization?

1) Colts
2) Eagles
3) Pats
4) Steelers
5) Giants
6) Bucs
7) Titans
8) Seahawks
9) Ravens
10) Rams
11) Packers
12) Redskins

Unless you are going to put the Cowboys or Chargers ahead of us...and even if you do, couldn't one argue that the Rams should lose some steam for being extra dysfunctional since the SB loss in 2001?

Look, the distribution makes my point clear: the average NFL organization has been to the playoffs 3-4 times in the past 10 years. The best of the best are there consistently, and no SB winner since 1999 has been there less than half the time. So, I don't think anyone is trying to argue we're elite, but once you get outside the ten best teams, we "win" as much as anyone else does.

[rbanerjee23]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm glad that he was able to accurately forecast that we would be one of 20 teams to miss the playoffs. That's difficult to do, you know

The last two years, I had the Redskins at 10-6, and then 8-8 preseason. So I missed by one game in two years. ...

Great analysis man, bottom line, Skins need to go out and perform