Brandon Marshall anyone

[ethat001]

So by the numbers above, you'd be wasting a potential $30 million guaranteed money on a QB, RB or WR who only has a 50 PERCENT chance of making it in the NFL. Makes someone proven like Marshall seem worth it.

Signing a YOUNG vet like Haynesworth to $40 mil guaranteed, Hall to $20 mil guaranteed -- I think these make more sense for young proven stars. I don't disagree with the front office with this strategy. It's more expensive, but maybe more worth it. It seems like the draft is a better deal for low round picks if you can pick a gem like Horton.

"The bottom five will surprise fans most. The worst drafting team in the past three years, holding on to only a little more than half of its drafted players: the New England Patriots. With three Super Bowl wins since 2001, the Patriots are the team of the decade so far. They boast a 39-9 record in the past three years. How have they maintained that excellence? Though saddled with low draft picks, the Patriots have been the masters of picking up useful veterans via trades to fill holes in their lineup (see: receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker).

Third worst is another surprise: the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers, with only 58% of their drafted players still on the team and no All-Pros among them. Like the Patriots, the perennially contending Steelers usually have a low draft spot, but they have fulfilled their needs by finding and developing excellent undrafted rookies over the years, like running back Willie Parker and linebacker James Harrison, the 2008 defensive player of the year.

The bottom line: Drafting NFL-caliber players is very important, but it doesn't necessarily equal success on the field. Finding other strategies to plug the gaps, like the Patriots and Steelers have done, is essential. So don't judge your team's success at the end of draft day. Wait to see how it all plays out--and watch for what your team does to boost draft deficiencies."

forbes.com/2009/04/08/nfl-draft-teams-lifestyle-sports-nfl-draft.html

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by ethat001

So by the numbers above, you'd be wasting a potential $30 million guaranteed money on a QB, RB or WR who only has a 50 PERCENT chance of making it in the NFL. Makes someone proven like Marshall seem worth it.

Signing a YOUNG vet like Haynesworth to $40 mil guaranteed, Hall to $20 mil guaranteed -- I think these make more sense for young proven stars. I don't disagree with the front office with this strategy. It's more expensive, but maybe more worth it. It seems like the draft is a better deal for low round picks if you can pick a gem like Horton.

Well, $30 million isn't exactly the average amount of guaranteed money for a first round player. It's like, the average of the top three picks. But the bust rate in the top three is, obviously, significantly lower than in the rest of the round.

I've also found, in the past, that the way you need to define a bust to make the overall rate 50%+, seems to be more heavily based on expectations than actual results. The true bust rate in the first round seems to be closer to 20% over the last five years or so, (5-6 players per round), although, admittedly much higher at the WR position. I'm just not of the mind that a 1st round pick that produces at a 3rd round level [like Robert Gallery] for 7-8 seasons deserves the same tag as a guy who is out of the league [pick your favorite Mike Williams] in two seasons.

And then of course, the study does label guys like Koren Robinson and Peter Warrick busts, though they do meet the non-bust criteria. Still, a 40% bust rate on WRs means you do always risk drafting a non-player in the draft.

Still, unless 100 receptions is a magical, automatic sort of figure, I'd say that a guy like Marshall could still find himself on the wrong side of that 45%. Not that it's likely that a guy with consecutive 100 reception seasons can't hold his own, but nothing he's done would make it a certainty that he's going to stay near the top of the league in receiving.

The draft is an excellent value from picks 9 and on. For teams picking in the top 8...you just have to do your homework and make sure you draft a contributor. The bust rate is pretty low in the top 8 picks, and the signing bonuses are obscenely high, and this combination makes it crippling for teams to draft a bust in the top quarter of the first round. Not that I'm suggesting anything that isn't already obvious.