John Clayton on the Redskins' Playoff Chances

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

Suisham had a down year last year and if we only get 1 more fieldgoal a game that puts our average at 19.6. Zorn has worked on the redzone offense extensively this year and Fred Davis will actually contribute. Our offense will be better this year and score more points and our defense could realistically become "elite". Cooley will get more TD's and Thomas and Kelly will contribute. Yes, we're going to the playoffs.

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

I agree and think we'll do a lot better in the redzone this year. I also expect Suisham to have a better year. I think we can expect at least 3 more points per game than last year.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Suisham didn't miss 16 FGs beyond his normal miss rate. The best answer is to convert red zone opportunities into TDs, and leave Suisham on the sideline.

But there were at least 10-12 reasonably makeable FG situations that were passed on because the game situation dictated that 3 points wouldn't have changed the outcome.

Ergo, projecting an increase of 30-45 points due to improvements in the results of FG games is realistic. However, then any increase in the Touchdown projections would be worth 4 points per, because we can't double count the game situations in which we came away with zero points. We can add 3 points in those situations with no theoretical improvement, or 7 points with a small theoretical improvement, but under no situation can those be 10 point situations.

The bottom line is that a progression to the mean based on last year's talent should yield about 19 PPG. To get up to 21, and get those 6-7 extra touchdowns out of those FG attempts, the offense has to improve situationally, both in the red zone, and in the 30+ yd play categories.

I think we can extrapolate that if the offense simply isn't worse than last year, we're dealing with a playoff team. If it progresses just by 2-3 PPG (on top of the 2.5 PPG progression to mean yardage totals), we're talking about a SB contender. 2-3 PPG won't be easy though, and if we start trading in additional turnovers for points, we're going to cost ourselves more wins than the points will gain us.