Some Zorn Story...But It Hints at Campbell Getting Paid

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The correlation is weak-positive (0.13). This suggests that there's some, but little, reason to believe that the most efficient passers also happen to be the most accurate.

The line represents the expected regression for this sample.

Nice, you actually did it. Cool.

The assertion wasn't that a correlation (let alone causation) exists between accuracy and yards per attempt. The assertion was that those QBs listed in the upper right quadrant of the plot are the most prolific passers from a QB rating standpoint (where quadrants are determined by the intersection of the median values of YPA and Accuracy). This is kind of a no-brainer; if you're really accurate and your attempts go for more yards, you'll put up big numbers.

This chart bears that out. The top passers in terms of QB rating are indeed found in the upper right quadrant - Brees, Warner, Cutler, Manning.

There are clear shortcomings in this chart, as it does not factor interceptions or TDs, which are both significant factors in QB rating. But still, it provides a more complete picture of Campbell.

Campbell ranks 7th in accuracy, yeah that's nice. But the yards per attempt rank in the bottom half (below the median). This lends credence to the naysayers in this thread: Campbell was indeed accurate but he was not going downfield like other QBs.

Of course, this is reflective of the terrible O line, high drop rate by our WRs, and reflective of Zorn's mid-season adjustment to reign in the passing game getting more conservative to protect the football from a failing offensive line. It is not an indictment of Campbell.

It encapsulates more of the entire picture: Campbell is accurate, but we didn't get the yardage we needed. Question is, will we get the yardage if the line and WRs improve? I say we will, but we'll have to wait and see.