Campbell's numbers dont lie

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I looked at those, and it seems less clear. If you say a TD pass is +10 yds, your basically saying that a TD is equal to one Firstdown. That's not a fair value.

Instead of thinking of it as 1 TD = 1 FD, I think it's more important to think of it from a standpoint of the difference in value between a huge play that doesn't go for a TD, and one that does.

Let's look at Portis' 79 yard run from the Chiefs game. He got tackled 10 yards short of the end zone. The difference in value between that 79 yard run and an 89 yd TD run is more than "ten yards", as we ended up not scoring on the drive. But let's assume for a minute that we establish that 1 TD = 1 INT = 45 yards. Applied to the Portis run, the difference between the 79 yard run and a 89 yard TD run would be the same as the difference between the 79 yard run and a 24 yard run (=79-10-45) out to the WAS 34.

While I firmly believe that Portis really should have been able to run that in for a touchdown, I would not trade in the the play that occured for a 50% probability of a score combined with a 50% that Brandon Carr gets off the Randle El block and tackles Portis for a 24 yard gain.

I would however, certainly trade in that 79 yard run if that 50% probability that Portis gets dragged down at the 30 or 35 of KC (70-10-10 or 15).

That's all I think the valuation game really is. A whole lot of trial and error, and what "feels" right. If the PFR analysis falls short, it's because they are only trying to value first down situations, when they need to be looking at all downs. A TD bonus on 3rd and goal from the 15 yard line probably is worth close to 45 yards. I would definately trade 45 yards of field position for the four additional points.