Campbell's numbers dont lie

[Kalisto2010]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Too early, way too early, to say Sanchez is a bust

Actually, Sanchez is going to be a fantastic QB. Despite the myriad of interceptions he's made a lot of big plays for his team. I remember when Troy Aikman or Peyton first came in the league they were interceptions left and right. But they also demonstrated the ability to make plays for their teams. I'm not saying Sanchez will be as good as those two, but as you stated it's way to early to call him a bust.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Kalisto2010

Actually, Sanchez is going to be a fantastic QB. Despite the myriad of interceptions he's made a lot of big plays for his team. I remember when Troy Aikman or Peyton first came in the league they were interceptions left and right. But they also demonstrated the ability to make plays for their teams. I'm not saying Sanchez will be as good as those two, but as you stated it's way to early to call him a bust.

Good point. I just think that Sanchez here would have been a terrible idea. He would have been another David Carr or Patrick Ramsey, and would have been shell shocked by the end of the season. I just pray that this team realizes how awful of a line they have have and take care of that before they bring in the new QB of the future.

[Monkeydad]

FINAL stats/assessment:

Cutler:
TOTAL: 336/555 (60.5%), 3,666 yds, 27 TD, 26 INT, 76.8 rating, 173 rush yds, 1 rush TD, 35 sacks, 1 fumble lost

Sanchez:
TOTAL: 196/364 (53.8%), 2,444 yds, 12 TD, 20 INT, 63.0 rating, 106 rush yds, 0 rush TD, 26 sacks, 3 fumbles lost

Campbell:
TOTAL: 327/507 (64.5%), 3,618 yds, 20 TD, 15 INT, 86.4 rating, 236 rush yds, 1 rush TD, 43 sacks, 3 fumbles lost


Ranks:
Comp. % = Campbell (64.5%), Cutler (60.5%), Sanchez (53.8%)
Yds =Cutler (3,666), Campbell (3,618), Sanchez (2,444)
TDs = Cutler (27), Campbell (20), Sanchez (12)
INTs (fewest) = Campbell (15), Sanchez (20), Cutler (26)
QB rating = Campbell (87.0), Cutler (71.1), Sanchez (62.3)
Rush yds = Campbell (215), Cutler (158), Sanchez(104)
Rush TDs = Campbell/Cutler (1), Sanchez (0)
Sacks (fewest) = Sanchez (26), Cutler (35), Campbell (43)
Fumbles lost (fewest) - Cutler (1), Campbell/Sanchez (3)


JC has proven to be the most accurate and efficient of the 3, the least-turnover prone, and despite having the worst offensive line, weakest running game and most organizational chaos...he has done the best of the three QBs. Cutler came on strong in the final two games, including an uncharacteristic 4 TD/0 INT game for him in Week 17 against the Lions, but threw at least one INT in 12 of the 16 games, including 7 multiple-INT games with highs of 5 and 4 INTs in each of a couple of his worst games. In comparison, Campbell had only three multiple-INT games with his worst being 3 picks in a single game that the Redskins won despite of his off-day (Tampa Bay). The Bears were 0-7 when Cutler threw more than one INT.

Sanchez' stats for the season are abbreviated because of his late-season benching, but ignoring that, his stats are ugly. He completed barely 50% of his passes and had almost double the number of INTs as TDs. This was all with the one of the top defenses in the NFL and the #1 rushing game in the league. When the Jets had to rely on Sanchez' arm, he failed despite having a team around him that would have allowed Campbell to be a Pro-Bowler.

Campbell showed some real leadership and proved himself to be one of the toughest QBs in the league in my opinion. He was sacked 43 times, but I'd like to see a stat on how many times he was hit hard when he was able to get rid of the ball. He was completely abused and literally beaten into the ground with a revolving door of offensive linemen and 5 different RBs, plus the loss of his favorite target in Chris Cooley. He physically survived despite a black eye and other aches/pains, but I also believe and hope that his job security survived. He Jason played very well this season in a bad situation and was one of the few bright spots on offense (along with Fred Davis, Thomas, Kelly emerging...Dockery surviving the season, possibly the discovery of Quinton Ganther's talent).

Thankfully, Vinny Ceratto is gone and Bruce Allen won't let this annual headline happen again in 2010:
Redskins Ignore Offensive Line in Draft -- NFL FanHouse

In my opinion, only Derrick Dockery and Levi Jones earned a return, possibly Mike Williams as a backup only. Casey Rabach managed to last most of the season, but continued to cost the team with his inability to snap in the shotgun formation and stupid penalties in the red zone. Edwin Williams or a new Center should be starting next season. Heyer has proven he's not starter material.

Portis may be back but we better not rely on him to be the sole back. We need to either add another supplementary back or trust Ganther to be part of a RB tandem to keep Portis healthier and maximize his remaining talent, which he does have when healthy...but that's the problem.

With an offensive line, consistency at RB and a capable HC (like Shanahan), I believe Jason Campbell will lead this team to a lot of success in the future. He has already proven that he was the best choice of the 3 QBs in question for the team prior to the season.

I can only be hopeful and almost excited to have an upcoming year led not by a moron in Cerrato and inexperience of Zorn, but by proven winners like Bruce Allen and probably Mike Shanahan. If they have their offseason priorities straight and accomplish them, Jason Campbell and the Redskins will be back on the road to greatness, as us long-time fans were used to and miss.

Thanks for reading and debating my tracking of these QBs throughout the season, even if you disagreed with me.

The future of the Redskins can ONLY get better! HTTR.

[44 70 chip]

Originally Posted by Buster

[SIZE=2]FINAL stats/assessment:

I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by 44 70 chip

I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.

You love to accuse him of checkdowns out of preference, but with no time to throw and no protection, his short passes were out of necessity. In fact, most of the time, all that was possible with this joke of a line was short passes and screens...WRs can't run downfield and complete routes when the QB is getting nailed 3 steps into his dropback. Early in his career and new with the Zorn offense (if you can call it that), you'd be right about his "timidity" and hesitation, but if you actually paid attention this season, you would have watched his game mature and some signs of real leadership and decisiveness appear, even without much help from his line and teammates.

You're also missing the entire point of this massive thread and my work, it's not to say he's the next Johnny Unitas...it was to prove and support my argument that he was the best of these three QBs that were being discussed as the 2009 Redskins quarterback. He was clearly better than the other two and keeping him was the correct choice. I believe he's earned his place on the team. I realize you're new here and joined halfway through this thread, but no one is saying he's a top NFL QB yet. Potentially he could be with a real offensive line and proper leadership (like Shanahan), but at this time, he's just a better fit than Cutler or Sanchez for the team. That's all we were debating in here.

[44 70 chip]

He is an improved QB however his poor fundamentals by them selves will keep him from ever being the guy his supporters want him to be.

As far as the Sanches/Campbell/Cutler thing goes, I noticed a marked lack of allowances for either of the other guys, that Campbell enjoys from his supporters.

Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 44 70 chip

Campbell gets excuses left and right, but Cutler who is clearly a better passer, doesn't even get Campbell excuse #1 "new offense" let alone excuse #3 poor recievers (#2 is O-line which is not applicable to Culter obviously). You can point to all those Int's all you want, I'll give you them... He's in a new system and throwing to a converted CORNERBACK and a kick returner.

The fact that he's tried to squeeze too many passes to guys who aren't actually wide receivers and gotten picked off a lot, doesn't scare me in the slightest... Some really REALLY good QB's have thrown 26 (or MORE!) interceptions in their careers...

You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).

[44 70 chip]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better.

No he isn't... "you like him better" and "he is better" are two different things man.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).

Cutler had a bad year. It's happens, even to the best guys. One year doesn't define the guy. On top of that he just didn't have any type of supporting cast and he was trying to do too much. His best wr's are the TE's. Kurt Warner had some less than average years and he came back to be a top QB. Cutler rebounded pretty well the last few weeks. I still believe Cutler holds more value around the NFL than JC does.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You can make any excuse you want. Campbell is just better. It's not that there isn't some very valid reasoning to suggest that a lot of Cutler's struggles this year were due to simple external factors that can improve, but you would really have to be quite biased to stretch the evidence in a way that makes Cutler a viable winner in the comparision.

26 interceptions isn't good, but the thing that really speaks volumes is the red zone INTs. Campbell threw zero red zone INTs this year, and most of his TDs came from the red zone. Cutler threw six (seven?) red zone picks. Can't excuse that, it's indicitive of a guy who doesn't see the coverage well (and never really has).

Good article:
Jay Cutler + Red Zone = Disaster

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 44 70 chip

I love how you bolded the stats that Campbell did the best in, while leaving more important stats unemphasized. Kinda tells it's own tale

Here's the truth, Campbell's career averages (stats that can be compared to other QB's regardless of number of games played) among 38 active QB's:

TD percentage: 3.4% tied for 30th out a 38 active QB's (utterly horrible, JP Losman is more likely to throw a TD on a given passing play, reflects unwillingnes to take chances)
Completion %: 61.2% 18th
(decent, but improved by his tendency to check down too often, also shows his unwillingness to take chances)
Yards Per Attempt: 6.6 tied for 26th
(reflects his tendency to check down)
Yards per completion: 10.8 tied for 33rd out of 38
(really reinforces the fact that he tends to be too timid and checks down too quickly and too often)
Interception % 2.3% tied for 4th of 38
(Fantastic! freakishly high for a mediocre QB... because he's checking down too often which means less risk of interception)
Pass Attempts per game: 31.5 11th
(interesting that he's 11th in attempts while being so low in yards per completion, if it needed reinforcement, then this is cement).

Everything in his stats points to the QB he really is, a mediocre QB, a nice guy, a tough guy, but overly conservative, hessitant and timid with his decision making.

The numbers absolutely support the narrative that Jason Campbell is unwilling to look downfield, but I've found that once you put the tape on him, the very worst he can be accused of is reacting to the defense/occasionally looking at the rush.

Basically, the one criticism of him that the statistics back falls apart with additional evidence.

I have legitimate concern about his ability to be an accurate QB in the future, but I do know he has been an accurate passer in the past.

[44 70 chip]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The numbers absolutely support the narrative that Jason Campbell is unwilling to look downfield, but I've found that once you put the tape on him, the very worst he can be accused of is reacting to the defense/occasionally looking at the rush.

Basically, the one criticism of him that the statistics back falls apart with additional evidence.

I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by 44 70 chip

I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...

Tripp is not an NFL archivist (as far as I'm concerned), but he has more knowledge than you and I. If you doubt this check the archives and see some of his game analysis.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 44 70 chip

I don't agree, everything I've seen supports the conclusion painted by his career numbers. I arrived at the conclusion without ever looking at statistics. I knew he was hesitant the first couple times his coaches got impatient with him for hesitating to throw to an open receiver... And have seen this behavior survive two head coaches, both of whom at one time or another have talked publically about Campbell needing to "trust his eyes" and "take what they've given him"

As far as Tape goes, unless you have access to better broader views than the TV stations typically tight focus give you I don't know how you're analyzing coverages...
Unless you're an archivist for NFL films I'll politely decline to comment.

In the end this isn't even Jason's biggest problem... He has a plethora of poor fundamentals from how he sometimes carries the ball when he moves in the pocket (at his hips in one hand), his ponderous wind up, his tendency to move away from ghost rushers, and get tangled up in real ones, his lack of peripheral vision (AKA ability to feel blind side pressure) his lack of studiousness (he is poor enough at reading defenses that he's not allowed to audible) he doesn't see blitzes (his center calls out the adjustments. Campbell is one of the few Veteran Qb's in the league that doesn't direct his protection), he often looks confused to the point that he forgets and leaves his mouth guard wedged in his helmet about 10-20% of his snaps. You may call that picking nits, but I call it a tell tail of poor habits and consistency. And an inability to change those poor habbits: See: the countless times he's been coached to keep the ball at his chest with BOTH HANDS, but he still can't do it consistently every snap (he has gotten better, late this year in particular), See also: his inability to slide for how many seasons now?.

The fact that he has some problems with his mechanics, some problems with the mental side of the game, and some problems with his fundamentals wouldn't be such a big deal if he could show that he can be coached out of those problems...

I think, in many ways, Campbell's inability to slide typifies my issues with him as a player. It's not that sliding is a particularly important skill, certainly no more important than establishing the ever-important ability to wear a mouthguard, but Campbell's weaknesses are mostly those small things.

In part, he's an extention of Zorn in that he has all the intangibles, rarely is fooled by the coverage, can make a play with his legs, etc., but I think he has game management issues and it's the quarterback minutae that I think will prevent him from reaching an elite level.

The bottom line is that it's all nitpicking, and if every player on our team did their job as well, but no better than Jason Campbell, we'd be a 9 or 10 win team every season. You might win a super bowl once every ten or fifteen years. The reason we haven't been to the playoffs but twice in the last ten seasons is because hardly anyone on this team has been as dependable as our quarterbacks. Particularly on offense, but the defense has had it's fair share of poor performers over the years as well.

[44 70 chip]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I think, in many ways, Campbell's inability to slide typifies my issues with him as a player. It's not that sliding is a particularly important skill

I don't think we're disagreeing on a whole lot here. Personally I want the Skins to keep looking for a franchise QB, if they let Campbell compete for the starting job for the next year or two while they do it, so be it...