Super Bowl XLIV Gameday Thread: Saints vs. Colts

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Originally Posted by wilsowilso

I think if someone said that onside kick was the gutsiest call they had ever seen in their entire lifetime I don't think I would be interested in arguing with them. It is just insane how much of a risk/reward calculation that play call was.

It was insanely ballzy, but it's more insane that it hadn't been used in any of the prior 43 super bowls. A surprise onside kick, so long as it hasn't been used so often as that it is not surprise, offers a chance to risk 30 yards of field position (expected point value of 1.4) for what is essentially a turnover (expected point value of 3.0) at a near even rate. That's a great play to take the risk on.

I'd imagine that coaches shy away from it only because of media criticism and the fear that the other team might be well coached enough as to be prepared for it. But Payton is clearly oblivious to what people think about him, which is one of the primary qualifications of a great head coach.