The Mid Round QB fallacy

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

If Campbell wants to truly take the next step he'll need to do two things

1. Work on his deep ball accuracy: Despite his strong arm Jason is horrible when it comes to throwing the deep ball.

Agreed that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

He needs to work on his deep ball accuracy on the go route/9 route.

There are some factors from a coaching stand point that will help JC improve also:

-better pass protection
o will help because he'll be more confident in the pocket
o there will be more chances to throw deep

-the receivers maintaining a more consistent 5 yard cushion from the sideline

-better running game to set-up play action

2. Reading defenses better: From what I've seen and heard Jason is only average in this category. If he wants to stay around he'll need to do a better job of looking off safeties and not staring down receivers as well as making proper pre-snap reads.

Gameplan and coaching will help him a great deal in this category.

Being able to dictate the coverages any QB faces greatly improves there success; and historically this something that Mike Shanahan has done in the past and i'm sure Mike has passed some of his tips along to his Kyle.

Further there will be huge difference in our current coaching staff's level of knowledge when it some to predicting and attack defenses then the previous on the job training offensive staff displayed.

There is no doubt in my mind that Kyle/LeFleur and Mike S. will have JC better prepared to read and attack any defenses this year.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Agreed that he needs to improve on the deep ball.

He needs to work on his deep ball accuracy on the go route/9 route.

There are some factors from a coaching stand point that will help JC improve also:

-better pass protection
o will help because he'll be more confident in the pocket
o there will be more chances to throw deep

-the receivers maintaining a more consistent 5 yard cushion from the sideline

-better running game to set-up play action



Gameplan and coaching will help him a great deal in this category.

Being able to dictate the coverages any QB faces greatly improves there success; and historically this something that Mike Shanahan has done in the past and i'm sure Mike has passed some of his tips along to his Kyle.

Further there will be huge difference in our current coaching staff's level of knowledge when it some to predicting and attack defenses then the previous on the job training offensive staff displayed.

There is no doubt in my mind that Kyle/LeFleur and Mike S. will have JC better prepared to read and attack any defenses this year.

Very good points.

[redskins202]

I like Jevon Snead as my 3rd choice of a QB if we don't pick up Bradford or Clausen. Snead arm is a good good canon and plays sorta like a Bret Favre in college( just alot less accurate).

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

If Campbell wants to truly take the next step he'll need to do two things

1. Work on his deep ball accuracy: Despite his strong arm Jason is horrible when it comes to throwing the deep ball.

2. Reading defenses better: From what I've seen and heard Jason is only average in this category. If he wants to stay around he'll need to do a better job of looking off safeties and not staring down receivers as well as making proper pre-snap reads.

It might only be two bullet points but they're easily two of the most important aspects of being an NFL QB.

Agreed; they talk about his long ball but it's never where it needs to be. He's even missed several with Moss or whoever nearly wide open.

The reading def needs to be improved, I'll defend him to an extent saying that he might only have time to make his basic reads before he has to get rid of the ball, however with a little more time he might get some extra looks in. He needs to compensate by having better pocket presence or having the pocket move (which obviously would be coming from above his call).

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

You're famous "Paint Rain"!

The folks at TheWarpath.net, for example, have an interesting conversation going about the potential for drafting a successful QB in the later rounds. Someone posting there as Paintrain (a name that I found intriguing when I was reading it as "paint rain," and a bit less so as "pain train," which I'm guessing it actually is) has broken down the playoff QBs from the last five years, and his numbers seem revealing (the names in parentheses are that year's non-first-round QBs):

A Whole Mess Of Links, Many Dealing With Quarterbacks

[skinster]

Yo we need a first round qb, no question. To bank on finding one in the late round/free agency is ludacris. To find a qb in the late rounds that can win is just dumb luck, which we cannot rely on. If someone thinks that qb can win they will take him early. We can't just hope to luck out on some guy that the other teams keep passing on. The QB is too important, and we have to get it while we have the opportunity to. If we get another position now, it might be too late to get a qb next year if we do better. QB is the one position that we cannot pass up if we have a guy to get, no matter what.

[Paintrain]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

You're famous "Paint Rain"!

The folks at TheWarpath.net, for example, have an interesting conversation going about the potential for drafting a successful QB in the later rounds. Someone posting there as Paintrain (a name that I found intriguing when I was reading it as "paint rain," and a bit less so as "pain train," which I'm guessing it actually is) has broken down the playoff QBs from the last five years, and his numbers seem revealing (the names in parentheses are that year's non-first-round QBs):

A Whole Mess Of Links, Many Dealing With Quarterbacks

I've been quoted (although mis-named) by Matt Terl. My life's work is complete.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

I've been quoted (although mis-named) by Matt Terl. My life's work is complete.

Hey guys check it out. I haz picture of Paintrain

[SmootSmack]

Does anyone else get the feeling that if GTripp were the General Manager of the Skins we would always miss the 15 minute deadline to submit our pick?

"No! I'm not ready yet. I still have to run a regression analysis on the running backs based on who wanted to be Han Solo and who wanted to be Luke Skywalker for Halloween in 4th grade and then measure that against the weighted average of mixed tapes made for their girlfriend in 10th grade per Wide Receiver. I need more time!!!!"

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Does anyone else get the feeling that if GTripp were the General Manager of the Skins we would always miss the 15 minute deadline to submit our pick?

"No! I'm not ready yet. I still have to run a regression analysis on the running backs based on who wanted to be Han Solo and who wanted to be Luke Skywalker for Halloween in 4th grade and then measure that against the weighted average of mixed tapes made for their girlfriend in 10th grade per Wide Receiver. I need more time!!!!"

That's pretty much why the Vikings fired me.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

That's pretty much why the Vikings fired me.

Figured just as much

[tryfuhl]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Does anyone else get the feeling that if GTripp were the General Manager of the Skins we would always miss the 15 minute deadline to submit our pick?

"No! I'm not ready yet. I still have to run a regression analysis on the running backs based on who wanted to be Han Solo and who wanted to be Luke Skywalker for Halloween in 4th grade and then measure that against the weighted average of mixed tapes made for their girlfriend in 10th grade per Wide Receiver. I need more time!!!!"

hahahaha

we'd never draft a QB, that's for certain

[GTripp0012]

Shanahan's mentor, Walsh, was famous for taking undervalued quarterback prospects and building a system that hid their weaknesses while exposing those of the defense. In a class like this, I find it hard to believe we won't even try that.

And that's why I feel that we will spend a first round pick on a quarterback, but that it won't be at No. 4. It will be at No. 25 or something, and it will be McCoy.

But it's an interesting thought that we may do that, and Clausen might still be available at that point. And then there's a legitimate dilemma that we'll have to pick between Clausen and McCoy at the back end of the first round to be our quarterback of the future.

[PHazard]

I Dont see Clausen being available at the end of the 1st round. There are simply too many teams that need a QB this season (rams, bills, seahawks, browns, jaguars, broncos, raiders, maybe vikings, panthers, cardinals). And wit Clausen somehow movin up in mock drafts as of late. i would be EXTREMELY suprised to see Jimmy Clausen around @ the end of the 1st. If we've traded back and he is there then it would be a more logical choice. FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING HOLY, MARY MOTHER OF JESUS, PLEASE DO NOT LET US DRAFT COLT MCCOY!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by PHazard

I Dont see Clausen being available at the end of the 1st round. There are simply too many teams that need a QB this season (rams, bills, seahawks, browns, jaguars, broncos, raiders, maybe vikings, panthers, cardinals). And wit Clausen somehow movin up in mock drafts as of late. i would be EXTREMELY suprised to see Jimmy Clausen around @ the end of the 1st. If we've traded back and he is there then it would be a more logical choice. FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING HOLY, MARY MOTHER OF JESUS, PLEASE DO NOT LET US DRAFT COLT MCCOY!

There are a lot of teams that need a QB, but a lot of them are going to go the veteran route. Come draft day, there might be two or three teams that need one, and one of those might be Carolina who doesn't pick before we pick twice. Arizona could be the other, and they don't pick until right around 25. Every team, however, has needs outside of quarterback.

There's also a bunch of teams that will be perfectly happy to test the draft later. Cleveland's run by Holmgren now, and he's NEVER taken a QB in the first round.

Someone is going to take Bradford within the top ten picks. After that, who knows.