The Mid Round QB fallacy

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Paintrain

Without picking sides in the Bradford/Clausen vs. Okung at #4 pick, it bugs me when I see people say to 'just pick up a QB in the mid rounds' like that's a recipe for success in the league.. Doing a little research (very little) it's pretty clear that it's not.. Of the playoff teams the past 5 years, the QB breakdown is (non first round QB in parenthesis):

2009, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brees, Warner, Brady, Romo, Favre)
2008, 9-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Warner, T. Jackson, Delhomme)
2007, 5-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Favre, T. Collins, Brady, Garrard, Romo, Garcia, Hasselbeck)
2006, 7-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Brees, Romo, Hasselbeck, T. Green)
2005, 6-12 playoff QB were first round picks (Brady, Plummer, Brunell, Hasselbeck, Garcia, Delhomme)

So nearly 60% of the playoff QB over the past 5 years have been 1st round picks. The exceptions have been the greatest 6th round pick in league history (Brady) 4 undrafted FA (Romo, Delhomme, Garcia, Warner)-including perhaps one of the most unlikely stories of all time in Warner. Three second round picks (Brees, Favre & Jackson) and 5 late round picks who eventually became something after playing behind established QB for years (Garrard, T. Green, Collins, Brunell, Hasselbeck).

So unless we're hoping for another miracle (Brady, Warner, Romo, Delhomme) or a slightly undervalued gem (Favre, Brees) or are hoping to find an undiscovered star (Hasselbeck, etc) then 'picking up a QB in the mid rounds' is likely not going to yield us anything beyond mediocre football in the future.

Well it seems that you and whoever thinks we're going to find the next Tom Brady in the middle rounds are under the impression that we're going to turn this ship around in one season.

To me, the first-round QB should be picked up in 2011, once we have built the offensive line with a stud first-round lineman (i.e. Okung), a quality free agent, and (crossing fingers) 1 or 2 of our young lineman that (hopefully) develops into a solid starter.

While all of us hope that we can have a significant winning season (beyond 9-7) right away, in reality it is going to take one of the following things to happen, either...

a.) We pick up a QB in the first round (i.e. Clausen or Bradford) and HOPE that Shanahan can build an offensive line out of mid-round lineman and what we have left.

b.) We build our offensive line starting with the top tackle in the draft (Okung) and hope that Shanahan can develop a mid-rounder QB.

Personally, I would rather us build the line, let JC play in 2010. Then in 2011, draft your QB of the future and give him the keys to an offense that has a strong offensive line and (hopefully) a strong running game and more experienced receivers (DT, MK, and Davis).