The Mid Round QB fallacy

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

YES!!! Thank you for bringing this up. I don't know what it is, weather it be some sort of subconscious compromise on the part of Campbell/O-Line @4 supporters or something else entirely but drafting and developing a QB is nothing like drafting and developing a lineman. With lineman you usually know within a year or two that they're going to be good with many showing lots of promise within the first year.

You make it sound like everyone wants to draft a lineman with #4. Even the pundits have us drafting a QB, and all this people have mancrushes on Bradford. Whether you like Campbell or not, I just don't know what else you need to see out of our offensive line for you or others to say, "Say, shouldn't we draft the top tackle?"

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

On top of that when you draft a lineman in rounds 3-5 you have a decent chance of that player turning into a quality starter down the line where as the only QB I can think of right now that was selected in those rounds was Matt Schuab.

And if you draft a first round lineman you have the chance to get the next Ryan Clady, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Jeff Otah, Michael Oher etc., etc., etc.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

The Saints have the best pair of Guards in the NFL right now in Nicks and Evans (5th and 4th respectively) with Evans being considered the premier guard in the NFL.

We're not talking about picking up guards in the first round, we're talking about picking up a franchise tackle.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Keep in mind this is possibly the deepest tackle draft in years and it takes a year or two to develop a QB. If the JC experiment fails, which going into it's 6th year is a highly likely possibility then we're going to loose out on a year of drafting a QB.

Not to mention that next year we will probably have to give up picks to move up to select the QB prospect of our choosing. This time around we'll have our pick of the liter, and it's a very good liter. Certainly better then last year where now we have three established starters at our disposal, two being prospects for the top of the first when we select at 4.

If the JC experiment fails, then we have another top pick in the 2011 draft. If it doesn't, then we had a winning season...and unless we trade away our first rounder, we can still pick a first-round QB in 2011 for the future.

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

In the end it all depends on how well they interview and weather or not we can get a clean bill of health from the respective doctors of Clausen and Bradford but this is our chance to finally pair a quality QB prospect with an offensive mastermind. This is the difference between hoping to make the playoffs every year and trying to win championships.

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury. In the Elway aftermath, Shanahan had moderate success with Jake Plummer before getting Cutler in the mix.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And if you draft a first round lineman you have the chance to get the next Ryan Clady, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Jake Long, Joe Thomas, Jeff Otah, Michael Oher etc., etc., etc.

Don't forget Micahel Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jason Peters, Eric Winston, Jeremy Trueblood, Donald Penn, David Stewart, and Matt Light. All guys selected after the first round.

We're also in an era were 7 first round lineman have started for a Super Bowl champion. Yet 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by franchise QB's.

There were only 7, out of a possible 50, drafted in round 1.

Of that, the highest was Jonathon Ogden at number 4 overall in 1996. In fact, he was the only top 10 olineman on a Superbowl winning team this decade.

Only one team, the 2005 Steelers, had mutliple first round o-lineman.

2 of the 7 are Kenyatta Walker (hardly a cornerstone) and Damien Woody

Keep in mind you're also coming off a Super Bowl where the starting Left Tackles were a 5th round pick and an UDFA.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

We're not talking about picking up guards in the first round, we're talking about picking up a franchise tackle.

And yet there are a handful of quality tackles that were selected in the 2nd round in recent years. This past year for instance there wasn't a whole lot of difference in performance between the first round tackles and the second round guys, in fact I think the second round guys made a much stronger statement this past year then the guys selected in the first round.

Eben Britton, Phil Loadholt, and Sebastian Vollmer all became regular starters by season end and are now staples on their line for years to come. If it hadn't been for Michael Oher the second round tackles would have outperformed their first round counterparts.

Plus we had a franchise tackle for the last 10 years while struggling with an anemic offense that suffered from *surprise* QB problems.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

If the JC experiment fails, then we have another top pick in the 2011 draft. If it doesn't, then we had a winning season...and unless we trade away our first rounder, we can still pick a first-round QB in 2011 for the future.

Again a one year jump start on developing a blue chip QB prospect is extremely valuable especially when it means you'll probably save draft picks down the line. Trust me we will not be picking in the top 10 for a while, unfortunately I can't promise you that we'll be picking in the bottom 10 either.

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury. In the Elway aftermath, Shanahan had moderate success with Jake Plummer before getting Cutler in the mix.

The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.

Originally Posted by Mike Shanahan

"I'm looking forward to it." Shanahan explained what he wants in a quarterback, and Campbell would do well to listen up. "I need a quarterback, No. 1, to be accurate, and No. 2, to be passionate about the game, about the preparation, the study and the execution," said Shanahan. "I've been around a lot of leaders and they do it different ways -- Joe Montana, Steve Young and John Elway. But they all had a deep desire to be the best."

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

You're still talking about a "quality prospect" that didn't play much his last season in college and has a shoulder injury.

Third degree AC joint sprain that was fixed with a 35 minute operation. Compare that to Drew Brees who came off a 360 degree tear.

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Don't forget Micahel Roos, Marcus McNeil, Jason Peters, Eric Winston, Jeremy Trueblood, Donald Penn, David Stewart, and Matt Light. All guys selected after the first round.

We're also in an era were 7 first round lineman have started for a Super Bowl champion. Yet 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by franchise QB's.



Keep in mind you're also coming off a Super Bowl where the starting Left Tackles were a 5th round pick and an UDFA.



And yet there are a handful of quality tackles that were selected in the 2nd round in recent years. This past year for instance there wasn't a whole lot of difference in performance between the first round tackles and the second round guys, in fact I think the second round guys made a much stronger statement this past year then the guys selected in the first round.

Eben Britton, Phil Loadholt, and Sebastian Vollmer all became regular starters by season end and are now staples on their line for years to come. If it hadn't been for Michael Oher the second round tackles would have outperformed their first round counterparts.

Plus we had a franchise tackle for the last 10 years while struggling with an anemic offense that suffered from *surprise* QB problems.



Again a one year jump start on developing a blue chip QB prospect is extremely valuable especially when it means you'll probably save draft picks down the line. Trust me we will not be picking in the top 10 for a while, unfortunately I can't promise you that we'll be picking in the bottom 10 either.



The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.





Third degree AC joint sprain that was fixed with a 35 minute operation. Compare that to Drew Brees who came off a 360 degree tear.

Knock out analysis from Dirtbag, well done.

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

The type of accuracy Bradford has is rare so of course I want us to draft him, especially after Shanahan says the number 1 quality he wants in a QB is accuracy. By the way I don't want moderate success, I want a freaking championship. I want Obama leaning into the mic with a football asking "whereeee's Chris Cooley?" I'm tired of hoping we limp into the playoffs. Of course over the next year or two that will be our goal but I want something to look forward to after that.

To me, making the QB position a priority over the offensive line is very similar to what Snyder and Cerrato have been trying to do over the past 10 years, get skill position players (in their case it was through the draft...sometimes, free agency, and trades) without building in the trenches. And drafting Okung is not necessarily by itself going to rebuild the line, but you have a player that can start at tackle right away. Meanwhile, drafting Bradford means putting him behind JC for at least year, and any chance for him to start would be for JC to fail (which would make a lot of ppl happy I'm sure).

As I said, if we do draft Bradford, we better hope that Shanahan can build our depleted offensive line with what he has left. And we better hope that all the money we pay Bradford is worth it at the end and that shoulder that has been twice injured is not as serious as everyone makes it out to be.

You mentioned that people say that this year's QB class is weak, and they'll probably say the same about next year's class. Well, this is the second year when some people are calling out for the Redskins to take a first-round tackle, and well something gets in the way and a tackle is not drafted (and may not be drafted). I know we drafted an pro bowler in Orakpo, and I was fine with that selection, but once again it seems that our drafting of a first-round tackle will be pushed to the next year. Well I wonder what will be the excuse in 2011 as to why we shouldn't take a first-round tackle.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

To me, making the QB position a priority over the offensive line is very similar to what Snyder and Cerrato have been trying to do over the past 10 years, get skill position players (in their case it was through the draft...sometimes, free agency, and trades) without building in the trenches. And drafting Okung is not necessarily by itself going to rebuild the line, but you have a player that can start at tackle right away. Meanwhile, drafting Bradford means putting him behind JC for at least year, and any chance for him to start would be for JC to fail (which would make a lot of ppl happy I'm sure).

As I said, if we do draft Bradford, we better hope that Shanahan can build our depleted offensive line with what he has left. And we better hope that all the money we pay Bradford is worth it at the end and that shoulder that has been twice injured is not as serious as everyone makes it out to be.

You mentioned that people say that this year's QB class is weak, and they'll probably say the same about next year's class. Well, this is the second year when some people are calling out for the Redskins to take a first-round tackle, and well something gets in the way and a tackle is not drafted (and may not be drafted). I know we drafted an pro bowler in Orakpo, and I was fine with that selection, but once again it seems that our drafting of a first-round tackle will be pushed to the next year. Well I wonder what will be the excuse in 2011 as to why we shouldn't take a first-round tackle.

Are you saying I'm like Cerrato. That is unforgivable RuhSkins

I will say this though Vinny's problem wasn't refusing to take lineman in the first round but rather taking every other position besides O-Lineman throughout the draft, which was unwise, especially given the track record of lineman in all rounds of the draft. As the jokes go Vinny would constantly scout TE, DB, LB, QB, WR, and maybe DL if he was feeling crazy. I'm calling for the team to draft 2 or 3 lineman a year for the next two years where as Vinny would have maybe considered drafting 2 guys this year.

Drafting Okung might be smart but it could also be the whole "one player away" mentality that we've doing all along and as you've seen it's taken Soup 5 years just to get to the point where he might be the guy, waiting a year to draft a QB that we might not be in position to draft isn't on par with long term planning. We'd be better served to think 2 or 3 years down the line rather then focusing soley on 2010 and filling the biggest need with the 4th pick despite the high probability of quality options in the second round isn't the best way to go about it in my opinion.

Besides Shanahans track record says he will find mid round lineman that will produce. Ryan Clady was the only successful first round tackle under Shanhan, the rest of the time he was using third, fourth, and fifth rounders. Keep in mind these lines were frequently considered among the best in the league.

In the end I believe drafting Bradford/Clausen in the first and a tackle in the 2nd will provide more value for us in the long run rather then Okung/McCoy/Pike.

-Dirtbag (because signing my name shows how damn important I am)

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Are you saying I'm like Cerrato. That is unforgivable RuhSkins

I will say this though Vinny's problem wasn't refusing to take lineman in the first round but rather taking every other position besides O-Lineman throughout the draft, which was unwise, especially given the track record of lineman in all rounds of the draft. As the jokes go Vinny would constantly scout TE, DB, LB, QB, WR, and maybe DL if he was feeling crazy. I'm calling for the team to draft 2 or 3 lineman a year for the next two years where as Vinny would have maybe considered drafting 2 guys this year.

Drafting Okung might be smart but it could also be the whole "one player away" mentality that we've doing all along and as you've seen it's taken Soup 5 years just to get to the point where he might be the guy, waiting a year to draft a QB that we might not be in position to draft isn't on par with long term planning. We'd be better served to think 2 or 3 years down the line rather then focusing soley on 2010 and filling the biggest need with the 4th pick despite the high probability of quality options in the second round isn't the best way to go about it in my opinion.

Besides Shanahans track record says he will find mid round lineman that will produce. Ryan Clady was the only successful first round tackle under Shanhan, the rest of the time he was using third, fourth, and fifth rounders. Keep in mind these lines were frequently considered among the best in the league.

In the end I believe drafting Bradford/Clausen in the first and a tackle in the 2nd will provide more value for us in the long run rather then Okung/McCoy/Pike.

-Dirtbag (because signing my name shows how damn important I am)

Well you are talking about the draft and not trading away picks, so no you are not like Cerrato. Besides it's not like you are talking about picking up Dez Bryant with the #4. LOL. :smashfrea

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

Well you are talking about the draft and not trading away picks, so no you are not like Cerrato. Besides it's not like you are talking about picking up Dez Bryant with the #4. LOL. :smashfrea

Wait Dez Bryant is available this draft ????????!??!?! Forget everything I said, this is a game chnager!! We're taking him at #4 if we're lucky enough that he falls to us. And you know what on top of that I'm trading this years second next years 1st and 3rd to move up to select Jermaine Gresham!!!!

In the meantime I'll sign Peyton to the vet min plus incentives!!!!!!!

On a somewhat related note ESPN Insider is ticking me off. Look at what they have written in Dez Bryants scouting report keep in mind I didn't leave anything out in this section:

The NCAA suspended Bryant for the final 10 games of the 2009 season for lying to an NCAA investigator who was looking into Bryant's off-season meeting with former NFL player Deion Sanders. Multiple NFL scouts have told us that Bryant comes from a difficul

"Difficul"? I assume they mean difficult but difficult what? What am I paying you for ESPN?

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

Wait Dez Bryant is available this draft ????????!??!?! Forget everything I said, this is a game chnager!! We're taking him at #4 if we're lucky enough that he falls to us. And you know what on top of that I'm trading this years second next years 1st and 3rd to move up to select Jermaine Gresham!!!!

In the meantime I'll sign Peyton to the vet min plus incentives!!!!!!!

On a somewhat related note ESPN Insider is ticking me off. Look at what they have written in Dez Bryants scouting report keep in mind I didn't leave anything out in this section:


"Difficul"? I assume they mean difficult but difficult what? What am I paying you for ESPN?

Didn't you hear there's a new Elite Insider package that spells check all of their articles, it will just cost you an extra 20 bucks.

[53Fan]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

To me, making the QB position a priority over the offensive line is very similar to what Snyder and Cerrato have been trying to do over the past 10 years, get skill position players (in their case it was through the draft...sometimes, free agency, and trades) without building in the trenches. And drafting Okung is not necessarily by itself going to rebuild the line, but you have a player that can start at tackle right away. Meanwhile, drafting Bradford means putting him behind JC for at least year, and any chance for him to start would be for JC to fail (which would make a lot of ppl happy I'm sure).

As I said, if we do draft Bradford, we better hope that Shanahan can build our depleted offensive line with what he has left. And we better hope that all the money we pay Bradford is worth it at the end and that shoulder that has been twice injured is not as serious as everyone makes it out to be.

You mentioned that people say that this year's QB class is weak, and they'll probably say the same about next year's class. Well, this is the second year when some people are calling out for the Redskins to take a first-round tackle, and well something gets in the way and a tackle is not drafted (and may not be drafted). I know we drafted an pro bowler in Orakpo, and I was fine with that selection, but once again it seems that our drafting of a first-round tackle will be pushed to the next year. Well I wonder what will be the excuse in 2011 as to why we shouldn't take a first-round tackle.

CB Patrick Peterson, Safety DeAndre McDaniel, RB Mark Imgram may all be to good to pass up. There always seems to be a reason not to draft an OT in the first round. Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet will be available too.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by 53Fan

CB Patrick Peterson, Safety DeAndre McDaniel, RB Mark Imgram may all be to good to pass up. There always seems to be a reason not to draft an OT in the first round. Jake Locker and Ryan Mallet will be available too.

Aside from the idea of weather or not they're worthy the question becomes will we be in position to select them, and if not initially what will it cost to get them. Will it be at the expense of a second round pick that could become a lineman? Or maybe we get the O-Line situated and need to find a LB to pair with Fletch on the inside.