The Mid Round QB fallacy

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Longtimefan

To add further credibility to the support of 1st round QB selections and their success and failure in Super Bowls, here is a graphic I found.

Super Bowl records of starting Quarterbacks by round drafted:

Round W L Pct.
1 24 19 .568
2 2 3 .400
3 5 6 .455
4 1 3 .400
8 0 1 .000 - David Woodley - Miami
9 1 1 .500 - Johnny Unitas - Baltimore
10 2 2 .500 - Roger Staubach - Cowboys (twice)
17 2 0 1.000 - Bart Starr - Green Bay (twice)
18 0 1 .000 - Joe Kapp - Vikings
24 0 1 .000 - Daryle Lamonica - Raiders
Undrafted 1 3 .250 - Jake Delhomme - Carolina, Kurt Warner (twice) Ariz. St. Louis

The wisdom of selecting a QB in the top ten is supported by the finding that their SB winning totals surpass all QB's drafted in other rounds combined. This graphic dates back to when the draft consisted of twenty four rounds, but is inclusive of every Super Bowl win since 1967.

I know Brady is the exception to the rule, but wasn't he drafted in the 6th round but your graphic has no 6th round win/loss record. Just nitpicking though.

I think if Shanahan is sold on a qb in the draft he should get him, but I would really like to see a lot of quality OL talent brought in through FA AND Draft.

We hopefully won't see a pick this high for a longtime, so whichever way they go, I hope they have a plan in place to develop the player to be a franchise player.

[Longtimefan]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I know Brady is the exception to the rule, but wasn't he drafted in the 6th round but your graphic has no 6th round win/loss record. Just nitpicking though.

I think if Shanahan is sold on a qb in the draft he should get him, but I would really like to see a lot of quality OL talent brought in through FA AND Draft.

We hopefully won't see a pick this high for a longtime, so whichever way they go, I hope they have a plan in place to develop the player to be a franchise player.

You're absolutely correct about Brady, and I don't know why he wasn't included in the graphic, But you'll notice there were no mention of 5, 6, or 7.

[Longtimefan]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

I know Brady is the exception to the rule, but wasn't he drafted in the 6th round but your graphic has no 6th round win/loss record. Just nitpicking though.

I think if Shanahan is sold on a qb in the draft he should get him, but I would really like to see a lot of quality OL talent brought in through FA AND Draft.

We hopefully won't see a pick this high for a longtime, so whichever way they go, I hope they have a plan in place to develop the player to be a franchise player.

I found another graphic that did include the 6th round selections but nothing for 5 and 7.

Round w L Pct.
6 4 3 .571

The four Super Bowl QB's were: Tom Brady, Stan Humphreys. Mark Rypien and Matt Hasselbeck drafted in the 6th round.

[sportscurmudgeon]

About ten years ago, the scouts declared that there would be a bonanza of QBs in the draft. If I recall the order correctly it went like this:

1st overall: Tim Couch to the Browns

2nd overall: Donovan McNabb to the Eagles

3rd overall: Akili Smith to the Bengals

10th overall: Duante Culpepper to the Vikings

12th overall: Cade McNown to the Bears

Couch, Smith and McNown were busts to say the least. Culpepper had some good years until he suffered a humongous knee injury. McNabb has been a star.

The moral of the story is that a team's scouts had better know what they are doing when they feed the GM data on the player to take in the early rounds of the draft. There are quality players out there; it really hurts if a team misses out on the quality players and takes a dud.

For April 2010, an important - - and totally unanswerable - - question is this:

Will the Redskins' scouts get accurate data to the draft day decisionmakers on the potential players available in the early rounds of the draft?

It matters more than the Redskins get a quality player than the position that quality player occupies. I say this having been on record for 2 years now that the Skins' OL must be upgraded.

The team has multiple needs (as witnesed by a 4-12 record in 2009); what they cannot afford to do is to waste early round picks on players who are merely "decent". They need to find positive impact players in this draft - - and more than one.