The Mid Round QB fallacy

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Slingin Sammy 33

Actually, Manning made the Pro Bowl in 1999-2000 and 2002-09. My point is the cast didn't change much from 1998 (3-13) to 1999 (13-3) it was Manning (elite QB) that made the difference. Look at Eli, similar scenario, no drastic personnel change except the upgrade from Toomer to Burress from year 1 to year 2, but a record improvement from 6-10 to 10-6, Burress contributed but certainly wasn't the X-factor for winning 4 additional games, it was Eli.

Well, first, I think the point was missed. The point wasn't "Manning was a product of the system, his accomplishments are irrelevant." It's that the Colts spent their 1996 first round pick on a wide receiver who became a hall of famer (with Manning), and they spent their 1997 first round pick on a left tackle who protected Manning's blind side from 1998-2006. The point isn't that Indy didn't need Manning to be great, the point was that 1998 Indy is a poor comparison to where the Redskins are. A better comparison would be 1996 or 1997 Indy.

Jason Campbell might only be as good as Jim Harbaugh, but the Colts weren't trying to figure out how they could get Jake Plummer to replace him.

I am not kidding when I point out that the last TWO first round picks the Redskins have spent on offense (in the draft, not via trade) are Jason Campbell and Patrick Ramsey. Apparently the answer to our offensive problems is that we haven't spent a first round pick on a quarterback in a while.

Bad comparison, if Zorn was still here, maybe. But to compare Shanahan / Allen to the mess in Houston under Capers, or Cleveland under whoever it was.....no way.

We have capable receivers, Moss is solid when he gives 100%, Thomas / Kelly have the physical tools and should develop under the new regime with a better system (and better QB). RB is a mess right now, but Shanahan has a knack for fixing that. I contend that Heyer at RT, Rinehart at RG can be solid. Dock is solid. We can get an LT with our 2nd rounder. Rabach...meh, that may need to be fixed next year. Even if we can't fix all the problems this year, the rest can be addressed next off-season when the rook (Clausen) is ready to hit stride. JC is our guy for at least the early part of the season, so we deal with it. If he improves under MS great and the rook sits, if not, rook goes in takes his lumps and we get ready for a great 2011.

The rest of this is a faith-based argument. The situation isn't inherently any better because Allen/Shanahan is in charge now. They haven't made any meaningful moves yet.

Which is not to say that I disagree with everything you've written here. The receivers may very well be capable and toolzy, but one thing they aren't is good. I've seen Shanahan do some great work with his running backs, but that was after he put an OL in place. I think we can get away without spending a top two round pick at the position, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we will be able to run the ball next year.

Which LT would you propose we get with the second round pick? If there's 8-10 teams that need left tackles, why did this player slip through to the second round? What do we armchair GMs know that the rest of the NFL is missing?

Heyer and Rinehart both flashed last year, but Rinehart is going to need the help from a strong RT, and Heyer is probably incapable of not being exposed over 16 games. I'd keep him as a first backup, as over a four game stretch, he's good enough to play, but if the plan to improve is this faulty, how in the world can we expect the execution to be flawless?

I commend you for laying this plan out there, but I'm struggling to see where any improvement is going to come from. It seems like mediocrity is the end game, but it will be more tolerable if Clausen is the guy providing it?

Presumably, it's the future drafts that will provide the pieces that we will actually be winning with. So, why wait?