Redskins Sign Grossman

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

Exactly. You may think that draft was a "surprise" but that's because you were probably following some mock draft on an Internet site.

"Polian recently said two things are true:

• For those who actually do the drafting, the first-round is rarely a mystery.

• It usually doesn't play out as those doing the mocking predict."

Yes, your hyping up of GMs as omniscient gods with perfect foresight is something else. The mocks may not get freaking order right, but generally right about the general vincinity of where the players are taken.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams take EITHER Bradford or Suh this year. Polian isn't surprised because he probably accounted most of the ways the picks could have gone, NOT because he has some godly ESP.
The Jets could have taken Leinart, and no one would be that surprised either because he was one of those top prospects. If Leinart fell to 8, that wouldn't have been surprising either, because the Lions bombed with Harrington and may have wanted a fresh start. I'll bet he played out all of those potential scenarios and wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if ANY of them happened.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Yes, your hyping up of GMs as omniscient gods with perfect foresight is something else. The mocks may not get freaking order right, but generally right about the general vincinity of where the players are taken.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams take EITHER Bradford or Suh this year. Polian isn't surprised because he probably accounted most of the ways the picks could have gone, NOT because he has some godly ESP.
The Jets could have taken Leinart, and no one would be that surprised either because he was one of those top prospects. If Leinart fell to 8, that wouldn't have been surprising either, because the Lions bombed with Harrington and may have wanted a fresh start. I'll bet he played out all of those potential scenarios and wouldn't have been the least bit surprised if ANY of them happened.

You're right. You and the mock drafts know better. All GMs should be required to use Mel Kiper's Big Board as a reference from now on.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

You're right. You and the mock drafts know better. All GMs should be required to use Mel Kiper's Big Board as a reference from now on.

The reason why Polian isn't surprised is probably because he probably researched out most of the "probable" ways the teams could have picked in the draft except that unlike the mocks, he has access to even more info. That's how he's never surprised. Being surprised is an emotion. Please do freaking tell how after rating that it would be probable the Rams would take either Suh or Bradford would result in me be surprised if one or the other is not chosen.


Not this omniscient "they all got together and shared notes on who they're picking" and got a predetermined draft order before it even happened. Not to mention that even with a "secret flaw" that wasn't so secret(like who didn't know about Oher's potential learning issues?), Leinart still had excellent size, accuracy, pocket presence, learned in a pro offense, winning records, ability to put touch on the passes, blah, blah, blah. That's stuff you'd expect from a top prospect (unlike our JC#17, who is mediocre at best at all of those skill).

Not only that, Leinart didn't fall that much. He was STILL a top ten pick, not a precipitous fall-off like Oher, who was drafted 23.

Summary:
Polian's being not surprised is NOT because of some godly omniscience you keeping attributing to him, but because educated guess due to information garnered from various sources.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Summary:
Polian's being not surprised is NOT because of some godly omniscience you keeping attributing to him, but because educated guess due to information garnered from various sources.

Summary:
Matt Leinart was not ranked in the Top 4 and thus was not taken in the Top 4. The Jets took Ferguson because Ferguson was rated higher than Leinart, not due to some philosophy that they believed an equally rated OT was more valuable than an equally rated QB.

That is why my example of David Carr vs Mike Williams applies, while your example of Ferguson vs Leinart does not.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

Summary:
Matt Leinart was not ranked in the Top 4 and thus was not taken in the Top 4. The Jets took Ferguson because Ferguson was rated higher than Leinart, not due to some philosophy that they believed an equally rated OT was more valuable than an equally rated QB.

That is why my example of David Carr vs Mike Williams applies, while your example of Ferguson vs Leinart does not.

Now your making some sense with the first sentence.


Your premises about "surprise" and GM omniscience is still a load of bull and you have not produced real evidence of a fatal flaw in Leinart. Continue worshipping you god, Polian.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Now your making some sense with the first sentence.

Your premises about "surprise" and GM omniscience is still a load of bull and you have not produced real evidence of a fatal flaw in Leinart. Continue worshipping you god, Polian.

So what you're trying to say is that Matt Leinart should have gone higher and should be ranked as Ferguson's equal in terms of value.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

So what you're trying to say is that Matt Leinart should have gone higher and should be ranked as Ferguson's equal in terms of value.

Nope, I agree Leinart was rated lower than Ferguson by the Jets, but how much lower is only known to the Jets scouting department. But they still took the LT even though the QB was not that much lower rated, assuming that the team draft grades corresponds to actual draft order.


It's just that you cannot grasp the concept of multiple expected outcomes and thus lack of surprise at any of them and that you cling to a preemptive collective decision-making model when it comes to teams deciding the draft order.