Redskins Sign Grossman

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

You're right. You and the mock drafts know better. All GMs should be required to use Mel Kiper's Big Board as a reference from now on.

The reason why Polian isn't surprised is probably because he probably researched out most of the "probable" ways the teams could have picked in the draft except that unlike the mocks, he has access to even more info. That's how he's never surprised. Being surprised is an emotion. Please do freaking tell how after rating that it would be probable the Rams would take either Suh or Bradford would result in me be surprised if one or the other is not chosen.


Not this omniscient "they all got together and shared notes on who they're picking" and got a predetermined draft order before it even happened. Not to mention that even with a "secret flaw" that wasn't so secret(like who didn't know about Oher's potential learning issues?), Leinart still had excellent size, accuracy, pocket presence, learned in a pro offense, winning records, ability to put touch on the passes, blah, blah, blah. That's stuff you'd expect from a top prospect (unlike our JC#17, who is mediocre at best at all of those skill).

Not only that, Leinart didn't fall that much. He was STILL a top ten pick, not a precipitous fall-off like Oher, who was drafted 23.

Summary:
Polian's being not surprised is NOT because of some godly omniscience you keeping attributing to him, but because educated guess due to information garnered from various sources.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Summary:
Polian's being not surprised is NOT because of some godly omniscience you keeping attributing to him, but because educated guess due to information garnered from various sources.

Summary:
Matt Leinart was not ranked in the Top 4 and thus was not taken in the Top 4. The Jets took Ferguson because Ferguson was rated higher than Leinart, not due to some philosophy that they believed an equally rated OT was more valuable than an equally rated QB.

That is why my example of David Carr vs Mike Williams applies, while your example of Ferguson vs Leinart does not.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

Summary:
Matt Leinart was not ranked in the Top 4 and thus was not taken in the Top 4. The Jets took Ferguson because Ferguson was rated higher than Leinart, not due to some philosophy that they believed an equally rated OT was more valuable than an equally rated QB.

That is why my example of David Carr vs Mike Williams applies, while your example of Ferguson vs Leinart does not.

Now your making some sense with the first sentence.


Your premises about "surprise" and GM omniscience is still a load of bull and you have not produced real evidence of a fatal flaw in Leinart. Continue worshipping you god, Polian.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Now your making some sense with the first sentence.

Your premises about "surprise" and GM omniscience is still a load of bull and you have not produced real evidence of a fatal flaw in Leinart. Continue worshipping you god, Polian.

So what you're trying to say is that Matt Leinart should have gone higher and should be ranked as Ferguson's equal in terms of value.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

So what you're trying to say is that Matt Leinart should have gone higher and should be ranked as Ferguson's equal in terms of value.

Nope, I agree Leinart was rated lower than Ferguson by the Jets, but how much lower is only known to the Jets scouting department. But they still took the LT even though the QB was not that much lower rated, assuming that the team draft grades corresponds to actual draft order.


It's just that you cannot grasp the concept of multiple expected outcomes and thus lack of surprise at any of them and that you cling to a preemptive collective decision-making model when it comes to teams deciding the draft order.

[Dogtag]

Hiring a QB Mentor/player is not a bad move. Makes sense to only offer a one-year deal. He is familiar with the system and coach ... we could have done much worse things.

[Audi]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Nope, I agree Leinart was rated lower than Ferguson by the Jets, but how much lower is only known to the Jets scouting department. But they still took the LT even though the QB was not that much lower rated, assuming that the team draft grades corresponds to actual draft order.

It's just that you cannot grasp the concept of multiple expected outcomes and thus lack of surprise at any of them and that you cling to a preemptive collective decision-making model when it comes to teams deciding the draft order.

If you agree Leinart was rated lower than Ferguson, then the argument is over. They took Ferguson because he was rated higher, not because they decided on a philosophy of LT over QB. Thanks for proving my point.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by Audi

If you agree Leinart was rated lower than Ferguson, then the argument is over. They took Ferguson because he was rated higher, not because they decided on a philosophy of LT over QB. Thanks for proving my point.

No, that conclusion's fine.

Your initial questionnaire in post #86, however, had a different point from the one you are asserting now. It implied that the some of the franchises who drafted "bust" qbs would not have been that much better off if they drafted someone else comparably rated in post #86. All of those teams had a need for quarterback, they picked one, and their respective opportunity cost was Julius Peppers, Ronnie Bown, and Calvin Johnson.

Now your assert your point is, "Player X was rated higher than Player Y by 6 orders of magnitude and all the GMs pre-determined it to be so".

So, just what is your point?