2010 NFL Off-Season Rumors and Reports (Week 3)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by over the mountain

Gtripp - im confused on how you evaluate qbs. im starting to think you undervalue the position way too much.

you gave stafford a 2nd round grade - he was drafted 1st overall

sanchez a 4th round grade - he was drafted 5th overall

bradford and claussen a mid-late 1st round grade - bradford is projected to be 1st overall, claussen in the top 10.

in another thread you said its stupid to pick a QB at value. so if you need a qb, theres a qb with a top 5 grade and your picking 4th, you dont pick the qb? b/c that would be picking him at his value?

i get wanting to draft a qb with a pick later than his value but good luck finding that buggy with a porsche engine under the hood. i think every team would love to draft guys later than what they have them graded as is, but while players might slip here or there, its just not realistic.

idk man, just odd how to treat these rookie qbs compared to your assessments of JC.

Come again?

The idea behind my projections is not to guess how the draft will value the players, but rather to try to provide an accurate picture of how good the players actually are. Could I find a fourth rounder in this draft capable of doing exactly what Sanchez did last year? Easily. Could I find a second rounder who could do what Stafford did? Of course.

It's all about having perspective. The truth of the matter is that, when it comes to first round quarterbacks, about 2/3rds are going to be less valuable than Jason Campbell. Is their anyway to identify the much better prospects from the much worse prospects? You betcha. When guys (like Bradford and Clausen) are just guys, someone needs to be willing to say that. I am.

The point is not to say that Bradford can't be better than Campbell or that Clausen can't be better than either of them. The argument that, by outbidding other desperate teams for the services of good but not great draft prospects, you can somehow land a franchise player, is IMO preposterous.

I don't think it matters whether Bradford or Clausen will be more successful in their careers than Campbell has been. I don't think it matters where someone else will take them. A marginal improvement in quarterback play, the kind people seem to be willing to jump through hoops for the mere opportunity of, just isn't worth that much. To be frank about it.

The difference between Peyton Manning and Jason Campbell, or the difference between Philip Rivers and Jason Campbell is worth using a top five draft choice on. The difference between Eli Manning and Campbell, or Carson Palmer and Campbell is probably not worth it.