Rumor: Eagles and Rams Finalizing Trade Involving McNabb

[McD5]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

I'm not willing to bet the farm on a single player, when there's the possibility of trading down to get multiple picks.

Multiple picks would be great. I personally believe we are still going to unload a few players to get some more picks in this draft. The first round is absolutely loaded this year.

But that still doesn't fix the QB situation. If we want to see our team in the playoffs almost every season, we need a franchise QB.

And interesting stat: 2nd round QBs almost always bust. In the last decade, only one has been great--Drew Brees.

Ten years of busts besides that one exception.

The next best 2nd rounders of the last decade? Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb. That isn't pretty.

[ethat001]

Originally Posted by McD5

And interesting stat: 2nd round QBs almost always bust. In the last decade, only one has been great--Drew Brees.

Ten years of busts besides that one exception.

The next best 2nd rounders of the last decade? Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb. That isn't pretty.

Yeah, here's a good article about exactly that - 2nd/3rd round QB's. matt Shaub is another good one (rd 3).
Draft Countdown - 2nd & 3rd Round Quarterbacks

[McD5]

Originally Posted by ethat001

Yeah, here's a good article about exactly that ]

Great article, thanks for sharing it.

Take a look at those second round QB busts. You either have to go in the first, or pray to God for a Tom Brady miracle in the sixth.

We are in the first, with the fourth pick. This is our shot.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by McD5

Multiple picks would be great. I personally believe we are still going to unload a few players to get some more picks in this draft. The first round is absolutely loaded this year.

But that still doesn't fix the QB situation. If we want to see our team in the playoffs almost every season, we need a franchise QB.

And interesting stat: 2nd round QBs almost always bust. In the last decade, only one has been great--Drew Brees.

Ten years of busts besides that one exception.

The next best 2nd rounders of the last decade? Chad Henne, Tavaris Jackson and Kevin Kolb. That isn't pretty.

There's been 11 second round picks in the decade. That's one per year, a very small sample. You're also counting guys who have never started for their teams as busts. Which is a different argument about why first rounders are different from second rounders, and one that I believe is benefical (if the hit rates are the same, drafting a "bust" in the second round costs fewer wins).

I would agree with the point that the second round features a bunch of reaches and not many steals at the QB position. The simple way to manage this downside would be to not draft a guy you have rated as a midrounder in the second round.

I guess my point that just because the rate of first round talents dropping to the second round is limited doesn't mean we shouldn't draft McCoy if he's available in the second round. That would be poor cause and effect. Rather, it suggests that McCoy might go a lot higher than people believe, because, if he's infact a second round talent, his draft position might get inflated into the first round.

[McD5]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I guess my point that just because the rate of first round talents dropping to the second round is limited doesn't mean we shouldn't draft McCoy if he's available in the second round. That would be poor cause and effect. Rather, it suggests that McCoy might go a lot higher than people believe, because, if he's infact a second round talent, his draft position might get inflated into the first round.

You sound like you favor McCoy. I have nothing against him, and apologize if it sounded like I do.

I would just suggest that there are reasons why Bradford is expected to be the first picked, and Colt is lower.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by McD5

You sound like you favor McCoy. I have nothing against him, and apologize if it sounded like I do.

I would just suggest that there are reasons why Bradford is expected to be the first picked, and Colt is lower.

I think there are reasons, mostly with prospective future value to an offense in seasons 4-7 of their career. Which is a decision that needs to be analyzed in this draft, and that's hard to do.

What I was trying to suggest is that "second round talents" productive in the pros or not, end up usually going in the first round. So when you analyze second round prospects as a group, you can see how a guy like Brees isn't like the others. That doesn't mean that future second rounders won't be like Brees, it means that, for organizations that are going to suffer turnover, drafting a QB in the second tends not to save you from your fate. And it ends up being a wasted pick when a new organization comes in. Of course, that's no different from first round draft picks: first round picks that are made with job security in mind are likely poor investments, worse than second rounders.

If a really good quarterback is expected to be available in the second round, then it makes sense to wait and select him. There's really no way that Bradford is going to be the guy who can most help the team at No. 4, considering that there are more than four guys who can help the team immediately -- and in the future. As a future projection, it doesn't really matter whether he's the fourth pick or the thirty seventh, but the type of impact player available at No. 4 simply will not be at 37. Which is the biggest issue.

I don't think a team that takes the best player on their board at No. 4 is forcing itself to draft for need in the second round.