Guard watches coast for oil slick's first wave

[SolidSnake84]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Your math may be a bit off, this is what I read this morning:

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has dumped over 6 million gallons of oil into the ocean, according to the New York Daily News, but scientists believe that the actual number could be more than twice that, according to the Associated Press.

The Exxon Valdez spill in 1989, dumped 11 million gallons into the ocean. The difference, proximity. The Deepwater Horizon spill is only 50 miles off of the coast of Louisiana.

White House Says The Gulf Oil Spill Is Worst In US History – IndyPosted

my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.

[joethiesmanfan]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.

Yesterday I heard that in Canada they must drill two wells. Relief wells are a part of the risk protection there. Seems like as soon as it happened they started drilling the relief well because they knew the relief well should have already been built (common sense).

[MTK]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

my math could be off...let's assume that the rate of flow is the 50,000 barrell a day figure that the government is projecting right now. To flow uninterrupted for 60 more days, during which time the relief wells are being drilled, adds up to 3 million barrels of oil dumped into the gulf. 165,000,000 gallons of oil. Thats assuming a constant 50,000 barrel a day rate, and assuming nothing gets worse.

The exxon valdez only released 250,000 barrels total...we will be well past that and climbing to unprecedented levels. All of us on here may never again live to see this kind of oil disaster.

You're talking barrrels but I was thinking gallons, nevermind. Either way it's a cluster F no doubt.

[CRedskinsRule]

How much oil is spilling in to the Gulf of Mexico? And, yes, it does matter. | Lisa Suatoni's Blog | Switchboard, from NRDC

interesting read:

...
Why the size of the spill matters

BP and the federal government repeatedly argue that measuring the volume of oil entering the Gulf is not a priority, that a more precise measure of flow rate is not important. Their rationale is that it would not influence the response in any way.

We disagree for a number of reasons:

1. Scale. The flow rate estimates differ by a factor of ten. Differences on this scale are not quibbles; they are big, fundamental differences.
2. Response. The discrepancy is sufficiently large enough to influence response strategies. For example, to promote the efficacy of dispersants, they are applied at a specific ratio to the volume of oil. This is not possible if the volume is unknown, by this large of a degree. In addition, the ability to successfully cap the well, engineer a dome, or pump the oil to the surface depends on a good estimate of the oil flow rate (both in terms of volume of oil and the force with which it is exiting the pipe).
3. Law. Under the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, a natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) must be conducted. This entails assessing the input of oil, its fate (i.e., where it goes, what it coats and contaminates), and the damage it caused. The ability to fully conduct this accounting – or ‘mass balance’ - requires knowing the initial volume of oil.
4. Financial Penalty. Following discharge of oil into a water body, the federal Clean Water Act allows for a civil penalty of up to $1,000 per barrel of oil spilled. This penalty can not be calculated to its fullest extent without knowing the total volume of oil.
5. Future emergency plans. Knowing the magnitude of this spill is necessary to inform future emergency response plans. Substantial underestimates of the volume of oil leaking from Deepwater Horizon will leave us unprepared in the future.

There are multiple reasons why BP may not want the true amount of oil to be known. Just take for example, the $1000 per barrel of oil spill civil penalty under the Clean Water Act. Using the “official” number of 5,000 barrels per day, their current tally is $140 million (and counting). Using some of the higher estimates provided by visual analysis of the leaking pipe, BP’s current tally is in the billions (and counting).

The bigger mystery is why the federal government is sitting on the sidelines. Why has the federal government been reluctant - and so slow - to undertake its own assessment of the size of the spill, particularly given the available expertise and alternative methods?

[joethiesmanfan]

Oil Spill Stunner: BOP had dead battery, leaking hydraulics and 260 design flaws | Jamie Friedland's Blog

Risk Management?

[CRedskinsRule]

2 good comments from the comment section of JTF's article:

user-pic

It was reported that the BOP couldn't cut the joint, which is a small percentage of the pipe area, and there is no reason why there would be a joint in that position. That's why it was acceptable, and that isn't what failed. And the 260 failure modes are simply all the theoretical ways it could fail, that doesn't mean they are design flaws. Like your car could fail to start because the battery was dead, or the car is out of gas, or the fuel pump doesn't work, or the injectors are clogged, or the ECM is shot, etc.
Posted by theCleverBulldog in reply to a comment from Jamie Friedland
May 13, 2010 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
user-pic

That's not exactly right. There is a specific reason a pipe joint might be aligned with the shears: because that's where the pipe happened to be when the disaster struck. Joints make up a specific percentage of the entire drill pipe surface and they pass through the ram shears at regular intervals. Sure, the *odds* are better that it won't be so aligned. But the odds are WELL on this side of "likely" when designing a fail-safe device. And while Jamie doesn't mention it here, there is actually some question if the shears were strong enough to cut the pipe they were using at all. Apparently this rig might have been using a more difficult to cut pipe than the BOP was rated for (in good working order - which this one was not) to handle the depth pressures.

I do think you are correct about the meaning of the 260 failure modes. But there are about a dozen specific modifications that were made to this unit (including hooking up non-working test rams to the circuit that was supposed to be running the shears), and several identified problems such as leaking hydraulics (which needed to be pressurized by ROV). There are also some issues about the BOP reliability in general and types of tests that they routinely fail.

It looks like plenty of ancillary blame to go around - i.e. person [x] could have prevented it at any number of stages along the way if they had just done their jobs better. The whole damn industry needs a serious kick in the ass IMO. But as best I can tell, this is starting to look pretty bad for BP as the final point of critical breakdown. Even if the Halliburton cement job did cause a gas bubble - it was a documented potential problem. Considering the BOP was all fucked up and literally modified, it's hard to blame Halliburton for the backup safety mechanisms ALL failing.
Posted by kgb999 in reply to a comment from theCleverBulldog
May 13, 2010 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink

[joethiesmanfan]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

2 good comments from the comment section of JTF's article:

Wow we quoting comments or making comments. I can go to any article about Obama and find comments that prove he is a communist muslim spy that smokes crack and sleeps with men.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by joethiesmanfan

Wow we quoting comments or making comments. I can go to any article about Obama and find comments that prove he is a communist muslim spy that smokes crack and sleeps with men.

We are discussing, those 2 commenters had very good takes, it is no different than quoting somebody here. My comment to you goes back to reading comprehension. I did not claim that they were factual, just good comments. I do think that they seemed to have a good knowledge base, but I don't know that.

[SolidSnake84]

Well the BPGlobal Twitter that i mentioned is apparently fake....whats not fake is they have apparently pushed out again..

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by SolidSnake84

Well the BPGlobal Twitter that i mentioned is apparently fake....whats not fake is they have apparently pushed out again..

Wait, you thought that was real? Really? You're talking about @BPGlobalPR?

[SolidSnake84]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Wait, you thought that was real? Really? You're talking about @BPGlobalPR?

I believed it at first because the posts seemed official. One said that they were committed to fighting every last drop, but over the last day or so, the posts got ridiculous, and i had to admit I had been fooled.

The one post said if God didnt want people to drill then he shouldn't have put oil there. And that's how I knew....

People are complaining about Bobby Jindall, but from what i understand, him and the rest of the central government's hands are tied, due to the fact that BP is in charge of the cleanup, as per the federal government. I just read an article yesterday that said there is like loads of people down in the florida panhandle who want to volunteer ideas and stuff, and do manual labor, but they can't because BP has the authority down there, and not the local gov't.....

[12thMan]

I hear a lot about what Obama hasn't done, but nothing about how Gov. Bobby Jindal is handling this crisis in his own back yard.

[Slingin Sammy 33]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I hear a lot about what Obama hasn't done, but nothing about how Gov. Bobby Jindal is handling this crisis in his own back yard.

Here's what Gov. Jindal has done so far:

- On May 2 & 3 requested over 8M feet of oil blocking boom, to date the state has received only 815K feet.
- Jindal has requested approval of an emergency permit for a state plan to dredge and build new barrier islands to keep the oil from reaching the marshes and wetlands, to date no approval from Fed authorities.
- He's activated the LA National Guard

The link below provides some detailed info as well:

KATC.com - Acadiana News, Acadiana Weather, Acadiana Sports | Lafayette Weather, Lafayette News, Lafayette Sports | Jindal Held Press Conference Regarding Oil Spill

Here's another article with a very telling quote:

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/bobby_jindal_haley_barbour_res.html

Bob Mann, who led (former LA Gov.) Blanco's (D) communications strategy during Katrina, said Jindal appears to be aggressively responding to the spill.
"I looked really hard to try to find something to criticize and honestly I can't," said Mann, now a Louisiana State University professor. "Based on what he knew and what we all knew at the time, what more could he have done?"

Short of Jindal flying out from the Hall of Justice with his power ring to seal the leak, what more can he do? Anywho, I thought Obama already was flying down there to seal the leak with his super strength and heat vision.

[mlmpetert]

Originally Posted by 12thMan

I hear a lot about what Obama hasn't done, but nothing about how Gov. Bobby Jindal is handling this crisis in his own back yard.

I dont have cable right now and have been forced to watch network news. I dont really watch much tv, especially now without cable, but what ive seen on network news quotes Jindal more than anyone else about the crisis. This seems like the only thing he has been working on since the well burst and he seems very involved.

Also he's been very critical of help from the federal government:

Louisiana's Jindal: Where's Obama? - IBD - Investors.com

[SolidSnake84]

Times like this make me wish superheros were real. Like Superman could swim to the bottom of the gulf and seal up the well with his heat vision. And using his super strength, he could like tie knots in the other lines so no more oil would come out.

It sucks that Superman isn't real.