Report: Redskins are pursuing Vincent Jackson

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by saden1

I'd get him if the price is a 2nd rounder plus some late round pick (5th/6th/7th).

IMO that should be the price range. Miami gave up two second rounders for Brandon Marshall who is younger and statistically pretty dominant over VJ. No way we should give more than Miami did.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

IMO that should be the price range. Miami gave up two second rounders for Brandon Marshall who is younger and statistically pretty dominant over VJ. No way we should give more than Miami did.

Can't agree that Marshall is statistically dominant over VJ. Marshall is a 12 yard per reception guy for his career, which is less than, among others, Santana Moss and Malcolm Kelly. He doesn't catch a particularly high % if the 180 targets per year he averages. His (Marshall's) 10 TDs last year represent a significant breakout over his past, or potentially, a fluke year. For Jackson, a 7-10 TD season would just be expected.

I know he's been able to rack up the big totals in Denver, with 100 receptions and 1,000 yards, but those haven't really been great passing games for that work. The Chargers have been great and then some, which is a credit to everyone involved (Rivers, Jackson, Sproles, Gates, Norv)

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Can't agree that Marshall is statistically dominant over VJ. Marshall is a 12 yard per reception guy for his career, which is less than, among others, Santana Moss and Malcolm Kelly. He doesn't catch a particularly high % if the 180 targets per year he averages. His (Marshall's) 10 TDs last year represent a significant breakout over his past, or potentially, a fluke year. For Jackson, a 7-10 TD season would just be expected.

I know he's been able to rack up the big totals in Denver, with 100 receptions and 1,000 yards, but those haven't really been great passing games for that work. The Chargers have been great and then some, which is a credit to everyone involved (Rivers, Jackson, Sproles, Gates, Norv)

I hear you, I just feel like Marshall is a really dynamic playmaker. He has a penchant for big time catches, and often finds spectacular ways to find the endzone after the catch. I know "dynamic playmaker" is tough to quantify (and I also know that his YPC doesn't help that argument), but that's just my opinion.

Also, when you're targeted as often as Marshall was in Denver, chances are your YPC is going to be lower. He was used so much in both the short, intermediate, and deep passing game, much more so than VJ in SD. Not that VJ couldn't be that guy, he just wasn't for reasons you pointed out (Gates and good pass catching RBs).

I have no doubt if you swapped VJ's role in SD with Brandon Marshall, the YPC numbers would have been just as good.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

I hear you, I just feel like Marshall is a really dynamic playmaker. He has a penchant for big time catches, and often finds spectacular ways to find the endzone after the catch. I know "dynamic playmaker" is tough to quantify (and I also know that his YPC doesn't help that argument), but that's just my opinion.

Also, when you're targeted as often as Marshall was in Denver, chances are your YPC is going to be lower. He was used so much in both the short, intermediate, and deep passing game, much more so than VJ in SD. Not that VJ couldn't be that guy, he just wasn't for reasons you pointed out (Gates and good pass catching RBs).

I have no doubt if you swapped VJ's role in SD with Brandon Marshall, the YPC numbers would have been just as good.

I do think Marshall's best days are ahead of him, which is why I've refrained from ripping the Dolphins from throwing two second round picks at him. As a prospective pickup, there's clearly plenty of talent there to work with.

As a player, Marshall is sort of a workhorse receiver. Problem is, I'm not really sure there's a spot for a workhorse receiver in an NFL offense. Which is to say, if I know I have a guy who can get 10 catches a game on 18 to 20 targets, but is only going to turn those 20 plays into 120 yards, well, now I'm averaging 6 yards per pass. If JaMarcus Russell is your quarterback, that's great! Get that man the football!

I think Marshall can be valuable if one out of every ten of his catches can go for a touchdown, as they did this year. But that's a career high mark. Over his career, it's been one in every fourteen to sixteen passes. In a high scoring offense. That's a guy who, traditionally, isn't very good in the red zone. And so if you aren't good at getting yards, and you're not good in the red zone, and you're going to act like an immature baby, why would I want you on my team?

Jackson does all those things well, and by all accounts, isn't out there to embarrass his teammates or his family name. And I think the numbers speak for themselves: he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Larry Fitzgerald. We don't discount Fitz' performance for having his best three years with a future hall of fame passer, and so Jackson shouldn't be seen as simply a product of Philip Rivers' genius.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I do think Marshall's best days are ahead of him, which is why I've refrained from ripping the Dolphins from throwing two second round picks at him. As a prospective pickup, there's clearly plenty of talent there to work with.

As a player, Marshall is sort of a workhorse receiver. Problem is, I'm not really sure there's a spot for a workhorse receiver in an NFL offense. Which is to say, if I know I have a guy who can get 10 catches a game on 18 to 20 targets, but is only going to turn those 20 plays into 120 yards, well, now I'm averaging 6 yards per pass. If JaMarcus Russell is your quarterback, that's great! Get that man the football!

I think Marshall can be valuable if one out of every ten of his catches can go for a touchdown, as they did this year. But that's a career high mark. Over his career, it's been one in every fourteen to sixteen passes. In a high scoring offense. That's a guy who, traditionally, isn't very good in the red zone. And so if you aren't good at getting yards, and you're not good in the red zone, and you're going to act like an immature baby, why would I want you on my team?


Jackson does all those things well, and by all accounts, isn't out there to embarrass his teammates or his family name. And I think the numbers speak for themselves: he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Larry Fitzgerald. We don't discount Fitz' performance for having his best three years with a future hall of fame passer, and so Jackson shouldn't be seen as simply a product of Philip Rivers' genius.

Well when you say "over his career," you're really only talking about three seasons, during which he was 23-25 years old. He's getting better. Again, if VJ saw all the targets BM saw, especially in the short passing game, I'm sure his YPC would be more similar to BM's. Denver didn't have an Antonio Gates or Sproles/LT to catch passes out of the backfield. I don't think VJ's success is solely a product of Rivers. I think he's a great talent.

At some point this became the Brandon Marshall vs. Vincent Jackson thread. I think they're both great, and there are arguments on both sides for why one is better than the other. It's sort of apples to apples. I'll be happy to have one or both on any of my fantasy teams this fall.

As far as Jackson embarrassing teammates/family, maybe his antics aren't on BM's level, but 2 or 3 DUI's and an upcoming suspension isn't too far off. Plus I hear the fanbase out in SD is pretty much over the guy.

[skinsfanthru&thru]

Anyone else just hear on NFL total access that Vincent Jackson is currently catching passes and working out with Mcnabb in Arizona right now? They also talked about the possibility of the skins working out a 3 team deal to acquire Jackson and get rid of haynesworth to reduce the amount of picks involved.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfanthru&thru

Anyone else just hear on NFL total access that Vincent Jackson is currently catching passes and working out with Mcnabb in Arizona right now? They also talked about the possibility of the skins working out a 3 team deal to acquire Jackson and get rid of haynesworth to reduce the amount of picks involved.

That's pretty big news.

The second part seems like pure speculation by the NFLN panel, who knows who is actually interested in Haynesworth? (Raiders?...he'd make a lot of sense for that defense), because SD probably wants nothing to do with him, but 3 team deals are hard.

They're also a Shanahan specialty (the 2006 John Abraham trade had nothing to do with Denver, but he finagled a trade up for Cutler out of it).

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Well when you say "over his career," you're really only talking about three seasons, during which he was 23-25 years old. He's getting better. Again, if VJ saw all the targets BM saw, especially in the short passing game, I'm sure his YPC would be more similar to BM's. Denver didn't have an Antonio Gates or Sproles/LT to catch passes out of the backfield. I don't think VJ's success is solely a product of Rivers. I think he's a great talent.

At some point this became the Brandon Marshall vs. Vincent Jackson thread. I think they're both great, and there are arguments on both sides for why one is better than the other. It's sort of apples to apples. I'll be happy to have one or both on any of my fantasy teams this fall.

As far as Jackson embarrassing teammates/family, maybe his antics aren't on BM's level, but 2 or 3 DUI's and an upcoming suspension isn't too far off. Plus I hear the fanbase out in SD is pretty much over the guy.

I don't think you're wrong. More short targets for VJ would mean more catches that fail to pick up first downs which would mean less value per play. I follow that logic completely: Jackson clearly benefits from the role Norv calls for him.

I don't necessarily think it reverses though. I don't think you could have Marshall play the role of Jackson in the Chargers offense and still have a top five passing offense, top five scoring offense, or necessarily have Marshall not actively hurting the offense. Now, the Miami Dolphins are betting two valuable second round picks and tens of millions of dollars that GTripp has no f-ing clue what he's talking about. That's...intimidating. But it's also not my loss if they are wrong.

And like you said, he's not quite done improving/refining. The veteran/aged Brandon Marshall is going to be a different player than the developing Marshall. Probably along the lines of a pure possession receiver.

My whole point all along was that I don't really think it is apples to apples, and if you were ever going to consider throwing a top draft pick at a veteran player, might as well make it a 27-year old who is at the top of his craft. There are ALWAYS good reasons to suspect that it's a bad idea to give up picks for players. There's a really good chance that giving up picks for players is always a losing proposition, and never a good idea. However, in the absence of this conclusion, Jackson is about as close to a sure-thing elite talent as it gets. And no one at his level (5+ WPA "wins" in the last two seasons) is ever on the trading block. Or at least not since Jared Allen was two seasons ago.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't think you're wrong. More short targets for VJ would mean more catches that fail to pick up first downs which would mean less value per play. I follow that logic completely: Jackson clearly benefits from the role Norv calls for him.

I don't necessarily think it reverses though. I don't think you could have Marshall play the role of Jackson in the Chargers offense and still have a top five passing offense, top five scoring offense, or necessarily have Marshall not actively hurting the offense. Now, the Miami Dolphins are betting two valuable second round picks and tens of millions of dollars that GTripp has no f-ing clue what he's talking about. That's...intimidating. But it's also not my loss if they are wrong.

And like you said, he's not quite done improving/refining. The veteran/aged Brandon Marshall is going to be a different player than the developing Marshall. Probably along the lines of a pure possession receiver.

My whole point all along was that I don't really think it is apples to apples, and if you were ever going to consider throwing a top draft pick at a veteran player, might as well make it a 27-year old who is at the top of his craft. There are ALWAYS good reasons to suspect that it's a bad idea to give up picks for players. There's a really good chance that giving up picks for players is always a losing proposition, and never a good idea. However, in the absence of this conclusion, Jackson is about as close to a sure-thing elite talent as it gets. And no one at his level (5+ WPA "wins" in the last two seasons) is ever on the trading block. Or at least not since Jared Allen was two seasons ago.

I lol'd. That's signature worthy.

I guess we're almost in agreement, however I do think if SD used Marshall like they did VJ, they would have still had good results. He's not quite the physical specimen that VJ is, but he's an elite receiver who can go underneath and up top with success. Basically I think BM is a bit more a stud WR than you do.

Good discussion. I talked more football on this site today than I have in months. I'm so jacked for the season.