Data Post #2...

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

How different do you think the Dolphins would look today if they had taken Matt Ryan instead of Jake Long? Sure Jake Long is a top tier tackle but last I checked their second round QB has been benched multiple times and the only reason the Dolphins were able to make the playoffs back in 2008 was because they lucked out with an out of date offensive formation and a QB who probably should have never been a free agent that late in the offseason. Until that team gets a franchise QB they will be nothing more then a flash in the pan.

Anyway the point of this cautionary tale is if we have the chance to draft a franchise QB lets pull the trigger. Not take the safe pick and hope that we can find a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round which at best will turn into a one year wonder in Shanahan's system a la Brian Griese of course odds are on us finding Charlie Frye instead.

It's time to be a Falcon not a Dolphin.

This is intentionally not a complete picture (it's point is for utmost simplification), but:

Matt Ryan, career -> 60.8% complete for 6.9 Y/A
Chad Henne, career -> 61.3% complete for 6.6 Y/A

Basically, the difference between the Dolphins and the Falcons in these respective eras is absolutely NOT passing efficiency. And the largest difference in the passing efficiencies is not the quarterbacks, it's a first round WR pick in his prime (Roddy White) vs. an undrafted third year slot receiver (Davone Bess) as the most dependable target each team offers.

It's been a significant special teams advantage, and playing in the NFC South vs. the AFC East.

If you are going to model a winning team, the Falcons are absolutely not the team to model. That model would be "have a ridiculously good draft where all your picks hit, and play a soft regular schedule while disappointing in the playoffs."

I like the Bears model (win without an offense), the Chargers model (value trumps everything), the Titans/Jags model (everything comes from the ground game and pressure on the quarterback), and personally, the Gregg Williams secondary-first model. The Falcons model is 1) hard to duplicate, and 2) still lacking in long-term results.

I might, in hindsight, have recommended Matt Ryan over Jake Long. But Ryan still hasn't had a signature season, while Long's had the better career to date. I don't know how long that will hold, as it seems like a matter of time until Ryan is a perennial pro-bowler.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This is intentionally not a complete picture (it's point is for utmost simplification), but:

Matt Ryan, career -> 60.8% complete for 6.9 Y/A
Chad Henne, career -> 61.3% complete for 6.6 Y/A

Basically, the difference between the Dolphins and the Falcons in these respective eras is absolutely NOT passing efficiency. And the largest difference in the passing efficiencies is not the quarterbacks, it's a first round WR pick in his prime (Roddy White) vs. an undrafted third year slot receiver (Davone Bess) as the most dependable target each team offers.

It's been a significant special teams advantage, and playing in the NFC South vs. the AFC East.

If you are going to model a winning team, the Falcons are absolutely not the team to model. That model would be "have a ridiculously good draft where all your picks hit, and play a soft regular schedule while disappointing in the playoffs."

I like the Bears model (win without an offense), the Chargers model (value trumps everything), the Titans/Jags model (everything comes from the ground game and pressure on the quarterback), and personally, the Gregg Williams secondary-first model. The Falcons model is 1) hard to duplicate, and 2) still lacking in long-term results.

I might, in hindsight, have recommended Matt Ryan over Jake Long. But Ryan still hasn't had a signature season, while Long's had the better career to date. I don't know how long that will hold, as it seems like a matter of time until Ryan is a perennial pro-bowler.

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

I was going to try and put together a bunch of stuff to counter but yeah that works to. If nothing else remember the fact that Ryan has a 25:9 TD-Int ratio while leading an 12-2 team in a tough division. Henne has a 14:16 TD-Int ratio and has been benched at least twice this year. As SkinsfaninOk said, not even on the same planet.

And on top of that how can you even act like Henne doesn't have a recieving corps especially after the Dolphins spent a pretty penny to pry Brandon Marshall away from Denver? Should we hold the fact that Davone Bess isn't a household name against him? This is madness.

[SkinzWin]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I was going to try and put together a bunch of stuff to counter but yeah that works to. If nothing else remember the fact that Ryan has a 25:9 TD-Int ratio while leading an 12-2 team in a tough division. Henne has a 14:16 TD-Int ratio and has been benched at least twice this year. As SkinsfaninOk said, not even on the same planet.

And on top of that how can you even act like Henne doesn't have a recieving corps especially after the Dolphins spent a pretty penny to pry Brandon Marshall away from Denver? Should we hold the fact that Davone Bess isn't a household name against him? This is madness.

So essentially that means we are destined to trade for him in the off season. Oi vey.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag359

I was going to try and put together a bunch of stuff to counter but yeah that works to. If nothing else remember the fact that Ryan has a 25:9 TD-Int ratio while leading an 12-2 team in a tough division. Henne has a 14:16 TD-Int ratio and has been benched at least twice this year. As SkinsfaninOk said, not even on the same planet.

And on top of that how can you even act like Henne doesn't have a recieving corps especially after the Dolphins spent a pretty penny to pry Brandon Marshall away from Denver? Should we hold the fact that Davone Bess isn't a household name against him? This is madness.

The point was not that the Dolphins don't have a receiving corps. I wasn't trying to make excuses for anything happening or not happening. I like Bess, a lot. I like Hartline, a lot. I like Fasano, a lot. The point, which I think was missed, is at the most fundamental measures of production (i.e. more fundamental than TD/INT, which are the results of a bunch of other things, including quarterback quality), they are similar. The other point was that Roddy White is a great player. Passing TDs come a lot more naturally when you have an all pro receiver and a hall of fame TE to throw to. Bess is great, but he's not going to the hall of fame. And so if the Dolphins get to the red zone, they better be able to run the ball.

Similar doesn't mean equal. If the point was to try to figure out which player was better, Chad Henne or Matt Ryan, pretty much everything points to Ryan. Less negative plays, and more touchdowns. Those things matter, but they are also somewhat subject to small sample bias. The point is that comparing their passing at it's most fundamental levels, you don't have a Ben Rothlisberger/Tony Romo on one end, and a Derek Anderson/Mark Sanchez on the other. You have two guys who preside predominantly in the middle, where things like red zone efficiency, two minute offense, and getting the ball out of ones hand quickly determine who has a job and who doesn't. Ryan has taken advantage of all opportunities and Henne has not.

I'll remind you that it was your assertion that suggested the Falcons got it right while the Dolphins got it wrong. I'm wondering what exactly you're basing that on. The Falcons are 12-2 this year, while the Dolphins are 7-7. Their underlying performance is a lot closer than that. Who knows, if Henne was healthy and Tyler Thigpen doesn't have to start against the Bears, the Dolphins might actually have better underlying performance. There's certainly nothing there to say one team has it right while the other has it wrong.

We're talking about two teams with three above average seasons each since 2008 after last place finishes in 2007. There's absolutely no reason to think one methodology is correct while the other is wrong. One team plays in the winnable NFC South (which they are just about to win for the first time), the other team plays in an AFC East division (which they already won) that has been dominated by an elite team for a decade. I think both teams have pretty good futures.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Chad Henne isnt on the same Planet as Matt Ryan

If "sub-elite NFL quarterback" were a planet, you'd be wrong.