Active HOF candidates

[skinster]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

This seems like a pretty aggressive list

It looks like roughly 6 players make it each year as of recent history. The average HOF player (in my rough estimate) probably averages 14 years in the league (some more, some less). Lets drop those numbers by 1 to be conservative and say 5 players make it each year and the average hof player averages 13 years in the league. That means that there are 65 HOF players playing right now. I only listed 48 players that I thought were probably going to make it. At first glance it seems over the top and aggressive due to the massive amount of players listed, but I don't believe it to be aggressive because it corresponds with how many players will make it.

Also on a side note, I think the WR log jam is not only due to the number of WR's competing against each other trying to get it, I think part of it has to do with the numbers that WRs are putting up today. Granted it is a more pass happy league today, but in a few years, when a bunch of todays WR's pass players's numbers that just recently got elected into the hall of fame, it will be hard to say that they all can't get in as well. I think part of the log jam is that the voters are waiting to see how big the numbers are that today's WR's are going to put up before they induct WR's with potentially inferior numbers. I'm not saying that's a right mentality due to the change in the game and the inflation of numbers today, I'm just saying that politically it might cause future problems.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinster

It looks like roughly 6 players make it each year as of recent history. The average HOF player (in my rough estimate) probably averages 14 years in the league (some more, some less). Lets drop those numbers by 1 to be conservative and say 5 players make it each year and the average hof player averages 13 years in the league. That means that there are 65 HOF players playing right now. I only listed 48 players that I thought were probably going to make it. At first glance it seems over the top and aggressive due to the massive amount of players listed, but I don't believe it to be aggressive because it corresponds with how many players will make it.

Also on a side note, I think the WR log jam is not only due to the number of WR's competing against each other trying to get it, I think part of it has to do with the numbers that WRs are putting up today. Granted it is a more pass happy league today, but in a few years, when a bunch of todays WR's pass players's numbers that just recently got elected into the hall of fame, it will be hard to say that they all can't get in as well. I think part of the log jam is that the voters are waiting to see how big the numbers are that today's WR's are going to put up before they induct WR's with potentially inferior numbers. I'm not saying that's a right mentality due to the change in the game and the inflation of numbers today, I'm just saying that politically it might cause future problems.

Your 65 active HOFs estimate isn't inclusive of the fact that about half of each year's hall of fame class includes players whose playing days ended 15-30 years earlier. I don't think that these players necessarily have a better case than the 40th best active player (Ben Roethlisberger, for example, on the top 100 players list), but we tend to remember the past more fondly, which means the 65 active hall of famers estimate is too high.

The other way to look at it is that 65 players, once inducted, would comprise about 13-17% of the entire hall of fame, which includes contributors such as coaches, front office types, owners, and NFL films execs. So even if you cut the 65 by just 2/3s to 43, you'd still have to count maybe a Mara, an Accorsi, a Polian, and a Belichick or Dungy in that total.

Still, I don't think that detracts from this being a really good thread idea. I'll go team by team so I can organize my thoughts as I write.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Your 65 active HOFs estimate isn't inclusive of the fact that about half of each year's hall of fame class includes players whose playing days ended 15-30 years earlier. I don't think that these players necessarily have a better case than the 40th best active player (Ben Roethlisberger, for example, on the top 100 players list), but we tend to remember the past more fondly, which means the 65 active hall of famers estimate is too high.

The other way to look at it is that 65 players, once inducted, would comprise about 13-17% of the entire hall of fame, which includes contributors such as coaches, front office types, owners, and NFL films execs. So even if you cut the 65 by just 2/3s to 43, you'd still have to count maybe a Mara, an Accorsi, a Polian, and a Belichick or Dungy in that total.

Still, I don't think that detracts from this being a really good thread idea. I'll go team by team so I can organize my thoughts as I write.

I appreciate the compliment on the thread. I actually thought about what you said before I mentioned the 65. I took a sample size of the last 5 years, and the players who got inducted were actually closer to 6 than 5 per year. I said 5 to be conservative. The non-older players that get inducted averaged at least 14 years in the league, I said 13 to be conservative once again. To your comment of players who haven't played for 30 years getting in limits the number of recent players to get in, that is semi-true but misleading. Because 30 years down the road these players will be the ones being fondly remembered and put in the hall. Its a cycle. Just because they don't get in immediately doesn't mean they won't get in their last few years they are eligible. 65 I believe to be accurate because although I am being conservative based on my numbers, I believe the amount of people let in the hall will decrease in a few years. My conservancy I believe will balance out the decrease in eventual inductees over time.