2011 NFL Free Agency-Part 3

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

There are at least a few people who say the Eagles have serious holes in key areas to really do much damage...I'd like to think they're right

All I can think of is Linebacker. Which would be great if they didn't have such a high powered offense. Doesn't matter how much you can run the ball when you're down 28-14 in the fourth quarter unless you have someone like Chris Johnson that can hit a home run.

On the flip side though if someone shuts down Vick and then runs the ball all over the Eagles D, then they'll be as useful as a turtle on its back. Or you could get into a shoot out and hope like hell to come out on top. I'm thinking the second method will be more popular.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

All I can think of is Linebacker. Which would be great if they didn't have such a high powered offense. Doesn't matter how much you can run the ball when you're down 28-14 in the fourth quarter unless you have someone like Chris Johnson that can hit a home run.

On the flip side though if someone shuts down Vick and then runs the ball all over the Eagles D, then they'll be as useful as a turtle on its back. Or you could get into a shoot out and hope like hell to come out on top. I'm thinking the second method will be more popular.

I don't know if I see the Eagles as a highpowered offense. I suppose I could always fall asleep one night to the MNF game on loop last year until my opinion changes, but I think they have one player who'd I'd feel confident signing to a franchise-length contract: LeSean McCoy.

McCoy gets a lot of his value (which, I don't think people realize that he's already like a top five back in total value/yards from scrimmage) from being the third option for defenses, but he's typically the one delivering the knockout blow.

As for Vick, Maclin, and Jackson, they're all really good players, but each one is probably flawed: Jackson doesn't always adjust to the ball while it's in the air and his hands aren't great, Maclin isn't and will never be a yards after catch guy, and Vick is injury prone and is terrible with pressure on him. Which is why teams do nothing but blitz him: if you're 50-50 to bring him down at any point, you might as well pick the backfield to take that risk. His career sack rate suggests as much. Any quarterback who gets blitzed as much as he does will look good numbers-wise (YPA) b/c of fewer defenders in coverage, it's just how you have to play him because of his skill set.

All three of those guys had good years last year. If they all have career average years in 2011, they'll look something like this:

Vick: 3,100 yards on 450 attempts, 23 TDs, 12 INTs, + 580 age adjusted rushing yards and 42 (!) sacks in 14 games (86.7 ancient QB rating)

Maclin: 63 receptions for 863 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs
Jackson: 52 receptions for 936 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs + 100 rushing yards

Yards of Total offense (rushing + receiving) for Maclin, Jackson, Vick: 2479

Those are my projections for the Eagles offense. To me, they're not all that high powered. It's far more exciting than watching the Chiefs, but the production is about the same.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I don't know if I see the Eagles as a highpowered offense. I suppose I could always fall asleep one night to the MNF game on loop last year until my opinion changes, but I think they have one player who'd I'd feel confident signing to a franchise-length contract: LeSean McCoy.

McCoy gets a lot of his value (which, I don't think people realize that he's already like a top five back in total value/yards from scrimmage) from being the third option for defenses, but he's typically the one delivering the knockout blow.

As for Vick, Maclin, and Jackson, they're all really good players, but each one is probably flawed: Jackson doesn't always adjust to the ball while it's in the air and his hands aren't great, Maclin isn't and will never be a yards after catch guy, and Vick is injury prone and is terrible with pressure on him. Which is why teams do nothing but blitz him: if you're 50-50 to bring him down at any point, you might as well pick the backfield to take that risk. His career sack rate suggests as much. Any quarterback who gets blitzed as much as he does will look good numbers-wise (YPA) b/c of fewer defenders in coverage, it's just how you have to play him because of his skill set.

All three of those guys had good years last year. If they all have career average years in 2011, they'll look something like this:

Vick: 3,100 yards on 450 attempts, 23 TDs, 12 INTs, + 580 age adjusted rushing yards and 42 (!) sacks in 14 games (86.7 ancient QB rating)

Maclin: 63 receptions for 863 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs
Jackson: 52 receptions for 936 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs + 100 rushing yards

Yards of Total offense (rushing + receiving) for Maclin, Jackson, Vick: 2479

Those are my projections for the Eagles offense. To me, they're not all that high powered. It's far more exciting than watching the Chiefs, but the production is about the same.

Just so I can calibrate your skepticism here, do you think that either Michael Vick, or DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin could make the Redskins' squad? Or possibly be a starter for the Skins?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

Just so I can calibrate your skepticism here, do you think that either Michael Vick, or DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin could make the Redskins' squad? Or possibly be a starter for the Skins?

No. They'd be buried here behind John Beck and Jabar Gaffney. If Shanahan does it, it's always right.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No. They'd be buried here behind John Beck and Jabar Gaffney. If Shanahan does it, it's always right.

Thank you. Now I understand...

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

All I can think of is Linebacker. Which would be great if they didn't have such a high powered offense. Doesn't matter how much you can run the ball when you're down 28-14 in the fourth quarter unless you have someone like Chris Johnson that can hit a home run.

On the flip side though if someone shuts down Vick and then runs the ball all over the Eagles D, then they'll be as useful as a turtle on its back. Or you could get into a shoot out and hope like hell to come out on top. I'm thinking the second method will be more popular.

As you indicate, their linebackers are a problem area. Also, their offensive line is destined to struggle even if Harris can remain healthy. Vick is a likely candidate for the injury report. Add it all up and you have good but not great and certainly not "Dream Team."

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Lotus

As you indicate, their linebackers are a problem area. Also, their offensive line is destined to struggle even if Harris can remain healthy. Vick is a likely candidate for the injury report. Add it all up and you have good but not great and certainly not "Dream Team."

Well keep in mind, even with an injured Vick they still finished second in total offense and third in points per game with 27.4 points (only .2 points behind San Diego). Probably made up a lot of ground for the games Vick missed on that MN game.

And to be honest, among the starters I don't see a clear cut weakness (ie a 2009 Stephon Heyer).