I am a horrible, rotten excuse for a Redskins fan.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Every pick can fail. Higher picks just do so less than others. ... The argument that having a higher pick is not better than a lower pick has no credence. Between a 50% chance of "failing" and a 4% chance of failing, I'll take the 50%.

The problem is that it is not a 50% success rate v. a 4% success rate. Here are all the QB’s chosen in the first rounds since 2005 (I originally had the first 3 rounds but since the allegation is higher in the first round = higher success and consider it a given that we will be picking a QB in the first round, I only included these QB’s):

2011:
Cam Newton 1(1)
Jake Locker 1(8)
Blaine Gabbert 1(10)
Christian Ponder 1(12)

2010:
Bradford 1(1)
Tebow 1(25)

2009:
Stafford 1(1)
Sanchez 1(5)
Freeman 1(17)

2008:
M. Ryan 1(3)
Flacco 1(18)

2007:
JaMarcus Russell 1(1)
B. Quinn 1(22)

2006:
Vince Young 1(3)
Matt Leinart 1(10)
Jay Cutler 1(11)

2005
Alex Smith 1(1)
Aaron Rodgers 1(24)
Jason Campbell 1(25)

I’ll concede that Newton is a Keeper if we can concede that we really can’t make a call on Locker or Ponder but that Gabbert has been underwhelming and will probably be an average at best kinda guy.

With that said, of the QB’s pick in the top 10 we are left with Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Ryan (all of whom appear to be keepers), Sanchez (Nope), JaMarcus (uhhh….) Young, Lienart (Nope) Smith (I think he goes in the failed category b/c he would not last that long with this franchise) and Gabbert (maybe). So its less than that’s a 50% pass rate. With the washouts (Russell, Lienart, Young) being pretty epic.

Outside the top 10 we have Tebow, Freeman, Flacco, Quinn, Cutler, Rodgers & Campbell. Of these, only Quinn was a complete bust. The rest are starters of varying quality (and Tebow – not sure what to call him).

Looking at the top 5 QB's of those chosen in the 1st rounder, I would rate them as follows:
Rodgers (not top 5)
Ryan (top 5)
Cutler (not top 5)
Stafford (top 5)
Cam Newton (top 5)

Of the worst:
Russell (top 5)
Young (top 5)
Lienart (not top 5)
Quinn (not top 5)
Campbell (not top 5)

So the best of the best (Rogers) was a Not Top 5’er and the worst of the worst (Russell) was a Top 5’er.

All this shows to me, as NC_Skins is saying, is that the draft is a crap shoot. Given the odds, you aren’t significantly improving your chances by tanking.

Do your best, build a culture of hard work and “never say die” attitudes and you give a rookie a chance. Create a culture of losing and you will be doomed to the culture you create.