North Korea's Kim Jong II Pushing Up Daisies

[Gary84Clark]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Ultimately, it's China's call. If Jong-un can win their support and demonstrate he can keep the Korean peninsula stable, he will remain in power. If not, expect China to replace him. The other main player, apparently, is the N. Korean Army, which was the basis of Jong-il's power. If he can satisfy the Army that they will remain preeminent and satisfy China that he will maintain power. If not, someone will replace him who can satisfy those two needs.

What would be bad is if Jong-un ends up being incompetent, is disposed of, and the Army and the Chinese each attempt to install their own person in power.

I am betting Jong-un is gone by 2015. Whether or not a civil war erupts is the question. And, if it does, what role, if any, will NK's burgeoning nuclear arsenal play (Would a crazy general lob a nuke at China? S. Korea? Japan?).

Scary. Just glad there is not a land bridge between here and there.

Joe, just curious, how do you know what China and North Korea will do? You speak with such certainty.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Gary84Clark

Joe, just curious, how do you know what China and North Korea will do? You speak with such certainty.

I am not certain just speculating based on my understanding of (1) China's historical stance on issues affecting the Korean peninsula and (2) my understanding of the military's role in Kim Jong-il and Kim Sung-il's regimes.

China is N. Korea's only ally and benefactor. I don't remember the numbers but the aid NK receives from China is significant. Essentially, without it, N. Korea's economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse making the recent famine seem like boon times. China supports NK simply b/c, without it, a united Korea under the Republic of Korea (South Korea) places a US/Western ally on their Manchurian border. Essentially, China views NK as a necessary buffer state and that's why they pump resources into it. Based on this, I would expect China to have a significant role in determining the political future of NK.

As to the NK military, it has a 1,000,000 million man army with 8,000,000 active reserve. Military Strength of North Korea. Additionally, as with most dicatators, it is the Praetorian Guard that made Jong-il's autocratic rule practicable. Given its size and historical role in the regime, I am simply speculating that it has some serious power players within it who will expect a significant voice in the country's affairs.

In addition to all that, my wife's best friend is a NK double agent who keeps me in the know.

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I am not certain just speculating based on my understanding of (1) China's historical stance on issues affecting the Korean peninsula and (2) my understanding of the military's role in Kim Jong-il and Kim Sung-il's regimes.

China is N. Korea's only ally and benefactor. I don't remember the numbers but the aid NK receives from China is significant. Essentially, without it, N. Korea's economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse making the recent famine seem like boon times. China supports NK simply b/c, without it, a united Korea under the Republic of Korea (South Korea) places a US/Western ally on their Manchurian border. Essentially, China views NK as a necessary buffer state and that's why they pump resources into it. Based on this, I would expect China to have a significant role in determining the political future of NK.

As to the NK military, it has a 1,000,000 million man army with 8,000,000 active reserve. Military Strength of North Korea. Additionally, as with most dicatators, it is the Praetorian Guard that made Jong-il's autocratic rule practicable. Given its size and historical role in the regime, I am simply speculating that it has some serious power players within it who will expect a significant voice in the country's affairs.

In addition to all that, my wife's best friend is a NK double agent who keeps me in the know.

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Lotus

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

I could see the army supporting an aggressive stance towards SK which might, w/out strong leadership from Jong-un, lead to NK going too far. Possibly even threatening to invade. At that point, it's as you say - What would China do?

As you said, crazy kid with nukes. I just don't see anything good coming of this.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I could see the army supporting an aggressive stance towards SK which might, w/out strong leadership from Jong-un, lead to NK going too far. Possibly even threatening to invade. At that point, it's as you say - What would China do?

As you said, crazy kid with nukes. I just don't see anything good coming of this.

you may be psychic -
North Korea Vows 'Special Actions' to Turn Seoul to 'Ashes' - Yahoo! News

(if threatening a form of fire which will consume the S. Korean leadership in three to 4 minutes counts as invading.)

You really start getting back to the concept of a pre-emptive strike if N. Korea even begins to look like they are contemplating an invasion/nuclear attack.