North Korea's Kim Jong II Pushing Up Daisies

[Lotus]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I am not certain just speculating based on my understanding of (1) China's historical stance on issues affecting the Korean peninsula and (2) my understanding of the military's role in Kim Jong-il and Kim Sung-il's regimes.

China is N. Korea's only ally and benefactor. I don't remember the numbers but the aid NK receives from China is significant. Essentially, without it, N. Korea's economy would suffer a catastrophic collapse making the recent famine seem like boon times. China supports NK simply b/c, without it, a united Korea under the Republic of Korea (South Korea) places a US/Western ally on their Manchurian border. Essentially, China views NK as a necessary buffer state and that's why they pump resources into it. Based on this, I would expect China to have a significant role in determining the political future of NK.

As to the NK military, it has a 1,000,000 million man army with 8,000,000 active reserve. Military Strength of North Korea. Additionally, as with most dicatators, it is the Praetorian Guard that made Jong-il's autocratic rule practicable. Given its size and historical role in the regime, I am simply speculating that it has some serious power players within it who will expect a significant voice in the country's affairs.

In addition to all that, my wife's best friend is a NK double agent who keeps me in the know.

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by Lotus

You are right about China's stake in NK. But China does not (yet) want NK as a colony so it often coddles NK to maintain an alliance. So the question becomes, how much destruction/nonsense will China put up with before China significantly intervenes?

I could see the army supporting an aggressive stance towards SK which might, w/out strong leadership from Jong-un, lead to NK going too far. Possibly even threatening to invade. At that point, it's as you say - What would China do?

As you said, crazy kid with nukes. I just don't see anything good coming of this.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

I could see the army supporting an aggressive stance towards SK which might, w/out strong leadership from Jong-un, lead to NK going too far. Possibly even threatening to invade. At that point, it's as you say - What would China do?

As you said, crazy kid with nukes. I just don't see anything good coming of this.

you may be psychic -
North Korea Vows 'Special Actions' to Turn Seoul to 'Ashes' - Yahoo! News

(if threatening a form of fire which will consume the S. Korean leadership in three to 4 minutes counts as invading.)

You really start getting back to the concept of a pre-emptive strike if N. Korea even begins to look like they are contemplating an invasion/nuclear attack.