Meet The Candidates: 2012 GOP Thread

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Perry challenges Virginia ballot rules – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Well FD, your dream of voting for Mitt Romney in the VA primary is looks like a done deal. Poor Newt Dogg and the village idiot Perry

When did I ever say that I supported Mitt? I don't think I have said I support anyone so far.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by firstdown

When did I ever say that I supported Mitt? I don't think I have said I support anyone so far.

FD your gonna vote Ron Paul in the primary?

[mlmpetert]

I think this could turn into the wildest election in a very long time. At the end of the day I think Romney is going to get the nomination, but depending on how that happens and leading up to it I think we could see some wild things.

If Paul wins Iowa then I think he will win New Hampshire by a lot. I got no idea about So. Carolina or Florida, but theyre both primaries and not caucuses so everyone in the state can vote, which I think gives Paul an advantage. 3 of those 4 states may help him in Nevada’s caucus, but I think Romney wins Nevada with its many Mormons. Either way I think the late primaries become the most important they have been in quite some time if Paul wins Iowa, New Hampshire and either SC or FL and has a strong showing in Nevada (very possible).

So I say all that because I think Paul doing that or something similar may set up 2 nightmare scenarios for the GOP:

1) Romney steals the nomination from Paul, so Paul steals the presidency from Romney by running as a third party guy. Honestly im not entirely positive Paul would steal the presidency from Romney if forced to run as a third Party guy. Since everyone likes to compare Obama to Carter, maybe in this scenario it would be fair to compare Ron Paul to John Anderson. While I think the majority of the votes for Paul would be considered “stolen” from Romney, I think a lot would come from Obama’s camp too. Still id be shocked if Romney won with Paul also running.

2) Paul wins the GOP nomination. The chances of this happening are still extremely slim, although now legitimately imaginable. If this were to happen Donald Trump could garner support from guys like O’Riliey, Rush and Hannity and run as an independent. Trump hates it when people ignore him and this could make him relevant again.

There may be a silver lining for “conservatives” with either of these scenarios, although after the last 2 weeks of hearing people bash Ron Paul and say hes not a conservative I honestly don’t know what “conservative” means anymore…. Obviously Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson’s seat is opening up and with either of the above playing out I think youll get an even bigger republican voting (proportional to democrat voting) turnout in 2012, making a Republican replacement for that seat and many others all the more likely. I thought the GOP had a legit shot at the Senate before Nelson’s retirement but now they have an even better shot.

Things are set up to be what I think are the craziest in a very long time…. I mean for God’s sake Ron Paul actually kind of has a chance of getting the Republican nomination.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

FD your gonna vote Ron Paul in the primary?

I've actually never voted in a primary. It's usually done by the time it gets to Va. At this time I have no clue who I'll vote for. I have been working it seems 24/7 the past several months and have seen little to any news. I was hoping things would slow down some in Jan & Feb. like they normally do but I'm as busy as ever.

[mlmpetert]

^exactly. Its always beena waste of time to vote in primaries in this state. But the GOP adopted the Democrat rules this year for its primaries, which wouldnt make much of a difference if there was a clear front runner... kind of like opposite of right now.

Wacky Rules Complicate Race for GOP Delegates

So Santorum did a repeat of what Huckabee did last election, spend all his time (apparently a year) and money in Iowa with the hopes that a big start will snowball into later primaries. It didn’t work last time and no one thinks it will work this go around. Before Romney was just sharing votes with Newt and Rick, now he also has to split them with Santorum for the next few primaries until the appeal wears off.

Because of the new “wacky rules” this go around most states’ delegates are award proportional (depending on how you define proportional). Iowa defined it in a way that awarded equal delegates to Romney, Santorum and Paul (7 each). So theyre all even, right? Apparently Paul’s people stayed after “stole” a bunch of delegates from the actual winners:

Ron Paul Iowa Caucus Delegates | TheBlaze.com

Basically Ron Paul isn’t going away anytime soon. Im not a Paul SuperFan or anything and i know he isn’t gonna get the nomination but hes playing this thing to make the next biggest impact.

This is turning into an absolutely fascinating election way ahead of schedule.

[12thMan]

Originally Posted by mlmpetert

^exactly. Its always beena waste of time to vote in primaries in this state. But the GOP adopted the Democrat rules this year for its primaries, which wouldnt make much of a difference if there was a clear front runner... kind of like opposite of right now.

Wacky Rules Complicate Race for GOP Delegates

So Santorum did a repeat of what Huckabee did last election, spend all his time (apparently a year) and money in Iowa with the hopes that a big start will snowball into later primaries. It didn’t work last time and no one thinks it will work this go around. Before Romney was just sharing votes with Newt and Rick, now he also has to split them with Santorum for the next few primaries until the appeal wears off.

Because of the new “wacky rules” this go around most states’ delegates are award proportional (depending on how you define proportional). Iowa defined it in a way that awarded equal delegates to Romney, Santorum and Paul (7 each). So theyre all even, right? Apparently Paul’s people stayed after “stole” a bunch of delegates from the actual winners:

Ron Paul Iowa Caucus Delegates | TheBlaze.com

Basically Ron Paul isn’t going away anytime soon. Im not a Paul SuperFan or anything and i know he isn’t gonna get the nomination but hes playing this thing to make the next biggest impact.

This is turning into an absolutely fascinating election way ahead of schedule.

I don't think Paul's going away, but he's not going up either. Likely downhill as far as polling numbers go. Iowa was tailor made for a Ron Paul victory, yet Rick Santorum overtook him by a pretty sizable margin with a fraction of Paul's money and ground organization.

The golden rule, though, if your guy can't beat Mitt Romney, chances are he can't beat President Obama either.