What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Yet people seem to be ready, no demanding that we trade (1st round draft picks) the most valueable resources on any team especially for a rebuilding team, for a pick that may or may not even prove to be the best QB in their draft class.

One thing you're going to have to put into your analysis is that the expected return of the first QB taken in any draft is much higher than of any other quarterback in the same draft. So whether that's Luck or not Luck, you're clearly better off taking the consensus best quarterback than waiting.

Obviously in some years, that will get you Alex Smith or Jamarcus Russell, but speaking in the most general terms that I can, the team with the most losses and the biggest need at quarterback is typically not going to leave the best QB on the board for later. The equation shifts if you have reason to believe the team with the top pick cannot rationally evaluate talent: then you might have reason to suspect they'll leave the best player on the board.

I am not saying that you should throw your draft board in the trash after Luck gets taken, but that there is incredible value to having that high pick that you aren't accounting for in that analysis, because it takes the limitation of having to pick through players with obvious flaws versus other positions where there is clearly more value out of the equation.

It's not inefficient to trade up in the NFL draft. If you're like the Redskins and you give away many of your picks every year, it continues an inefficient cycle, but when you isolate a single trade between two teams, the team going up in the draft is generally not giving up value. The market will adjust well to the value of draft picks.

It is inefficient, however, to not fully understand the needs and state of your own roster.