What is Andrew Luck Worth?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SkinzWin

GTripp said it well when referring to the "inefficient cycle" the Redskins have been in. Acquiring over priced FA's at the end of their careers, or overpaying via trades for aging vets.

I AM disagreeing with you because your initial point was an insinuation that it is not a good idea to trade all those draft picks for a guy who may not even be the best QB in the draft. That may be true but I said I am willing to take that risk to break the "inefficient cycle" we have put ourselves in by not trying to take a QB high in the first round. They are more likely to be cornerstones of a franchise than 2nd-7th round QB picks typically.

Quick correction: I was trying to say that trading multiple picks to get up for one player (i.e. using the draft as an extension of free agency) would continue the inefficient cycle the Redskins have been in. It would not break it.

But I was also saying that, along the lines of what you were saying, that the expected value of the higher pick matters, and 30 Gut was glossing over that in his argument.

I'll say this: if you're talking about all players (including defensive players) in the NFL draft, it is typically not efficient to trade up from 7th to 1st and try to maximize the value of the pick. Taking BPA at 7th overall doesn't typically result in a better overall player than taking BPA at 1st overall. The difference is very small.

But when you limit the discussion to elite offensive talents at skill positions, then it makes a big difference. What got Matt Millen into trouble in Detroit is that he consistently overvalued offensive skill talent, and didn't trade up to get it. What Millen did: sit and wait to draft QB/RB/WR was actually really inefficient. He would have been better off trading up.

If he had actually taken BPA (all positions), he wouldn't have likely ended up with Mike Williams or Roy Williams on his team. But Millen identified passing offense as something he couldn't win without, and then waited around to draft it. Which did him in as GM as much as anything.