I See QB Rumors (2012 QB Thread: The Sixth Sense)

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Belief that where he was drafted is a strong indicator that they never believed he was their long term solution

You would think a team would gauge their level of faith in a prospect based on how they play and not where they were drafted.
Even still IIRC Holmgren wanted to pull the trigger on Colt McCoy earlier in the draft.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by 30gut

You would think a team would gauge their level of faith in a prospect based on how they play and not where they were drafted.
Even still IIRC Holmgren wanted to pull the trigger on Colt McCoy earlier in the draft.

Well, their judgement is probably influenced from the initial impression. "We drafted him in the 3rd round because he wasn't a must have for us and we didn't really see him as a franchise long-term solution...so prove us wrong Colt" vs. "We traded up to get him because we believe this is the guy to lead us to multiple titles and we had to have him...so prove us right RG3"

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Well, their judgement is probably influenced from the initial impression. "We drafted him in the 3rd round because he wasn't a must have for us and we didn't really see him as a franchise long-term solution...so prove us wrong Colt" vs. "We traded up to get him because we believe this is the guy to lead us to multiple titles and we had to have him...so prove us right RG3"

I guess it depends on who 'they' are.
If 'they' is Mike Holmgren then I doubt draft position has much bearing on how he views his QBs.
And in general I don't think the way you describe the thought process is how coaches approach their QB decisions.
I don't believe a coach would ever draft a QB with the thought: I don't believe QB X has a chance to become franchise QB, prove us wrong.
I'm sure that wasn't the thought when Walsh drafted Montana in the 3rd.
Also IIRC Holmgren has never drafted a QB in the 1st round but has produced more quality QBs then most.
I'd bet his hit rate average with QBs outstrips the average of the rest of the league.

On the whole I don't think QB gurus judge or gauge their opinion on a QB by how much they had to give up to acquire them.
Rather they seek to use their understanding of what they're looking for in a QB to spend/draft lower then the the rest of the league.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I guess it depends on who 'they' are.
If 'they' is Mike Holmgren then I doubt draft position has much bearing on how he views his QBs.
And in general I don't think the way you describe the thought process is how coaches approach their QB decisions.
I don't believe a coach would ever draft a QB with the thought: I don't believe QB X has a chance to become franchise QB, prove us wrong.
I'm sure that wasn't the thought when Walsh drafted Montana in the 3rd.
Also IIRC Holmgren has never drafted a QB in the 1st round.
And has produced more quality QBs then most.
His track record suggests that when it comes to QBs he right far more often then the NFL at large.

On the whole I don't think QB gurus judge or gauge their opinion on a QB by how much they had to give up to acquire them.
Rather they seek to use their understanding of what they're looking for in a QB to spend/draft lower then the the rest of the league.

Well don't shoot the messenger. I'm just telling you what this scout (former actually) and some others think is happening in Cleveland.

Me personally? I think they don't really have an opinion on McCoy yet

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Well don't shoot the messenger. I'm just telling you what this scout (former actually) and some others think is happening in Cleveland.

Me personally? I think they don't really have an opinion on McCoy yet

Not at all, didn't intend to shoot the messenger.
Just speculating on the plausibility/logic behind some of the info out there.

Holmgren is quoted to have said that he wants to bring in competition.
It just doesn't seem logical to me to draft high or give up high draft picks for competition, that would be for replacement.

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Not at all, didn't intend to shoot the messenger.
Just speculating on the plausibility/logic behind some of the info out there.

Holmgren is quoted to have said that he wants to bring in competition.
It just doesn't seem logical to me to draft high or give up high draft picks for competition, that would be for replacement.

I look at it this way, there are fans here who seem to think we need to do whatever it takes to get RGIII to even include throwing all our draft picks away this yr and possibly next simply cause they think he will be the "franchise" QB of the future. What I find interesting is apparently no one else is supposed to think that way either only the Skins.

I'm telling you other teams although might not need a QB will probably try to get him if they think he's better then what they got now. I said this back in Nov. when Mock drafts were coming out saying this is how the draft will go:
1-Colts (need a QB) Luck
2- Rams (need a LT) Kalil
3- Vikes (need a WR) Blackmon
4- Bucks (need a CB) Claiborne
5- Skins (need a QB) RGIII

I said any of those teams would probably take a second look at RGIII if he is supposed to be the "franchise" QB everyone thinks he is. Then there is Dolphins, Titans, Seattle, Cardinals, etc. etc. etc.

We would be better served to try to pick up a FA QB and pick up a WR/QB tandum in the first two rounds. I don't want Orton but if it's expected for him to simply be back up to whoever is drafted then I'm ok with it. I just don't want him starting otherwise we might as well keep Grossman, I think his knowledge of the scheme out weights the few less INT's Orton provides.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

I look at it this way, there are fans here who seem to think we need to do whatever it takes to get RGIII to even include throwing all our draft picks away this yr and possibly next simply cause they think he will be the "franchise" QB of the future. What I find interesting is apparently no one else is supposed to think that way either only the Skins.

Although I think Griffin is the best QB prospect in this draft class I don't think the FO should 'get him at all costs'.
Call me crazy but I think the chances of Griff being available at 6 are reasonable.
Therefore I think the need/cost to move up isn't as great as people think.
Lets say we move up to the 4th or 3rd pick? The compensation would not be as the multiple 1st people have been speculating about for Griffin.
Imo we only really need to be ahead of 1 team and that's the Browns,(and doubt if the Browns really want to draft Griffin as much as they want someone to trade with them for Griffin).

I recall last year when everyone swore the Bills, Bengals, Cards and 49ers would take a QB in the1st and none did.
That's why I think there's a good chance Griff falls to us at 6.

I said any of those teams would probably take a second look at RGIII if he is supposed to be the "franchise" QB everyone thinks he is. Then there is Dolphins, Titans, Seattle, Cardinals, etc. etc. etc.

Disagree about those teams taking a second look at Griff.
Imo a team that has a potential franchise QB doesn't draft another QB just because of preference.
If those teams drafted another QB (Griffin) it means their entire organization is making a paradigm shift.

The only real threats from that list are the Dolphins and the Seahawks.
And there is a good chance that the Dolphins address their QB issue through FA.
Seattle would have to sacrifice a lot to leap frog past the 6th pick.

I don't want Orton but if it's expected for him to simply be back up to whoever is drafted then I'm ok with it. I just don't want him starting otherwise we might as well keep Grossman, I think his knowledge of the scheme out weights the few less INT's Orton provides.

Orton is a worse case scenario as a starter but even still he would be better then Rex.