I See QB Rumors (2012 QB Thread: The Sixth Sense)

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

Well don't shoot the messenger. I'm just telling you what this scout (former actually) and some others think is happening in Cleveland.

Me personally? I think they don't really have an opinion on McCoy yet

Not at all, didn't intend to shoot the messenger.
Just speculating on the plausibility/logic behind some of the info out there.

Holmgren is quoted to have said that he wants to bring in competition.
It just doesn't seem logical to me to draft high or give up high draft picks for competition, that would be for replacement.

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Not at all, didn't intend to shoot the messenger.
Just speculating on the plausibility/logic behind some of the info out there.

Holmgren is quoted to have said that he wants to bring in competition.
It just doesn't seem logical to me to draft high or give up high draft picks for competition, that would be for replacement.

I look at it this way, there are fans here who seem to think we need to do whatever it takes to get RGIII to even include throwing all our draft picks away this yr and possibly next simply cause they think he will be the "franchise" QB of the future. What I find interesting is apparently no one else is supposed to think that way either only the Skins.

I'm telling you other teams although might not need a QB will probably try to get him if they think he's better then what they got now. I said this back in Nov. when Mock drafts were coming out saying this is how the draft will go:
1-Colts (need a QB) Luck
2- Rams (need a LT) Kalil
3- Vikes (need a WR) Blackmon
4- Bucks (need a CB) Claiborne
5- Skins (need a QB) RGIII

I said any of those teams would probably take a second look at RGIII if he is supposed to be the "franchise" QB everyone thinks he is. Then there is Dolphins, Titans, Seattle, Cardinals, etc. etc. etc.

We would be better served to try to pick up a FA QB and pick up a WR/QB tandum in the first two rounds. I don't want Orton but if it's expected for him to simply be back up to whoever is drafted then I'm ok with it. I just don't want him starting otherwise we might as well keep Grossman, I think his knowledge of the scheme out weights the few less INT's Orton provides.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

I look at it this way, there are fans here who seem to think we need to do whatever it takes to get RGIII to even include throwing all our draft picks away this yr and possibly next simply cause they think he will be the "franchise" QB of the future. What I find interesting is apparently no one else is supposed to think that way either only the Skins.

Although I think Griffin is the best QB prospect in this draft class I don't think the FO should 'get him at all costs'.
Call me crazy but I think the chances of Griff being available at 6 are reasonable.
Therefore I think the need/cost to move up isn't as great as people think.
Lets say we move up to the 4th or 3rd pick? The compensation would not be as the multiple 1st people have been speculating about for Griffin.
Imo we only really need to be ahead of 1 team and that's the Browns,(and doubt if the Browns really want to draft Griffin as much as they want someone to trade with them for Griffin).

I recall last year when everyone swore the Bills, Bengals, Cards and 49ers would take a QB in the1st and none did.
That's why I think there's a good chance Griff falls to us at 6.

I said any of those teams would probably take a second look at RGIII if he is supposed to be the "franchise" QB everyone thinks he is. Then there is Dolphins, Titans, Seattle, Cardinals, etc. etc. etc.

Disagree about those teams taking a second look at Griff.
Imo a team that has a potential franchise QB doesn't draft another QB just because of preference.
If those teams drafted another QB (Griffin) it means their entire organization is making a paradigm shift.

The only real threats from that list are the Dolphins and the Seahawks.
And there is a good chance that the Dolphins address their QB issue through FA.
Seattle would have to sacrifice a lot to leap frog past the 6th pick.

I don't want Orton but if it's expected for him to simply be back up to whoever is drafted then I'm ok with it. I just don't want him starting otherwise we might as well keep Grossman, I think his knowledge of the scheme out weights the few less INT's Orton provides.

Orton is a worse case scenario as a starter but even still he would be better then Rex.

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Although I think Griffin is the best QB prospect in this draft class I don't think the FO should 'get him at all costs'.
Call me crazy but I think the chances of Griff being available at 6 are reasonable.
Therefore I think the need/cost to move up isn't as great as people think.
Lets say we move up to the 4th or 3rd pick? The compensation would not be as the multiple 1st people have been speculating about for Griffin.
Imo we only really need to be ahead of 1 team and that's the Browns,(and doubt if the Browns really want to draft Griffin as much as they want someone to trade with them for Griffin).

I recall last year when everyone swore the Bills, Bengals, Cards and 49ers would take a QB in the1st and none did.
That's why I think there's a good chance Griff falls to us at 6.


Disagree about those teams taking a second look at Griff.
Imo a team that has a potential franchise QB doesn't draft another QB just because of preference.
If those teams drafted another QB (Griffin) it means their entire organization is making a paradigm shift.

The only real threats from that list are the Dolphins and the Seahawks.
And there is a good chance that the Dolphins address their QB issue through FA.
Seattle would have to sacrifice a lot to leap frog past the 6th pick.

Orton is a worse case scenario as a starter but even still he would be better then Rex.

So, you truly believe that Bradford is a franchise QB? Ponder is a franchise QB? you believe Freeman is a franchise QB? McCoy is a franchise QB? Those QB's are as good or better then RGIII? cause if you can't say that then figure on those teams possibly taking RGIII and getting rid of what they got.... "IF" RGIII is truly a franchise QB.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

So, you truly believe that Bradford is a franchise QB? Ponder is a franchise QB? you believe Freeman is a franchise QB? McCoy is a franchise QB? .

No I don't believe Bradford,Ponder and McCoy are currently franchise QB.
But I do think they have the potential to be franchise QBs and....

Originally Posted by 30gut

Imo a team that has a potential franchise QB doesn't draft another QB just because of preference.
If those teams drafted another QB (Griffin) it means their entire organization is making a paradigm shift.

I do think that Freeman is the Buc's franchise QB though.
And like I said in my previous post the Browns (i.e. McCoy) are the one team we need to be ahead of because I think they're the least married to their current QB.
But, I still doubt they're ready to move on from him.

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Those QB's are as good or better then RGIII? cause if you can't say that then figure on those teams possibly taking RGIII and getting rid of what they got.... "IF" RGIII is truly a franchise QB

Huh?
How does one going about comparing whether NFL QBs are as good as college QB NFL prospect?
What basis do you use to judge?
Do you mean to ask if I think Griffin is a better prospect then some of them were? Yes.
Do I think Griffin is currently a better NFL QB? No.

You ask an unknowable question then use it as grounds to leap to an equally unknowable conclusion based on "IF" RGIII truly is franchise QB (which we can't know).

My question for you is this:
Why would a team with a potenital franchise QB get rid of their QB for another potential franchise QB?

Cheers

[SBXVII]

Originally Posted by 30gut

No I don't believe Bradford,Ponder and McCoy are currently franchise QB.
But I do think they have the potential to be franchise QBs and....

I do think that Freeman is the Buc's franchise QB though.
And like I said in my previous post the Browns (i.e. McCoy) are the one team we need to be ahead of because I think they're the least married to their current QB.
But, I still doubt they're ready to move on from him.

Huh?
How does one going about comparing whether NFL QBs are as good as college QB NFL prospect?
What basis do you use to judge?
Do you mean to ask if I think Griffin is a better prospect then some of them were? Yes.
Do I think Griffin is currently a better NFL QB? No.

You ask an unknowable question then use it as grounds to leap to an equally unknowable conclusion based on "IF" RGIII truly is franchise QB (which we can't know).

My question for you is this:
Why would a team with a potenital franchise QB get rid of their QB for another potential franchise QB?

Cheers

The question is: do you think RGIII is better then those QB's right now? and your question is the exact question I'm trying to get you to. Why would a team trade away a franchise QB for RGIII if they already have one? they wouldn't, unless they are not franchise QB's.

So I'm "assuming" your thinking the Rams will not trade Bradford, the Vikes wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Ponder, the Bucks wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Freeman, and the Browns wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over McCoy. Right? thats essentially what your saying... those other QB's are franchise QB's and their respective teams will want them and RGIII will fall to the Redskins at #6. and all I'm saying is it aint happening. I think several fans here see RGIII as an upgrade over Bradford to include me, an upgrade over Ponder, an upgrade over Freeman easily, an upgrade over McCoy. So I'd be shocked if RGIII simply fell to #6.

Do I think those other QB's can be franchise QB's? probably if they are in the right scheme and their talents used properly along with a few yrs of developement. But in this day and age of instant gratification I see no way the 4 teams above us simply say "no, were happy with what we got and can wait for our QB to become a franchise QB if they ever do."

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

The question is: do you think RGIII is better then those QB's right now?

Originally Posted by 30gut

Do I think Griffin is currently a better NFL QB? No.

Originally Posted by SBXVII

Why would a team trade away a franchise QB for RGIII if they already have one? they wouldn't, unless they are not franchise QB's.

This is circular logic that I don't follow.

So I'm "assuming" your thinking the Rams will not trade Bradford, the Vikes wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Ponder, the Bucks wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Freeman, and the Browns wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over McCoy. Right?

I get the distinct feeling that in your haste to disagree with me that you aren't even reading my posts.

You have one part of your assumption correct in that I don't think the Rams,Vikes or Bucs will draft RGIII.
Whether or not they view RGIII as an upgrade isn't the question.
For one upgrade is a needlessly ambiguous term.
Teams judge QBs as prospects with grades and by tiers.
Lets say that all tier 1 QBs have franchise potential.
But even within that tier of potential franchise QBs there will be grades.
Imo a team doesn't replace a tier 1 franchise potential QB with another tier 1 potential franchise QB even if Griffin is an upgrade in terms of 'grade' as a prospect.

But I don't understand why you need to make assumptions anyway when I've stated my point very clearly and I'll restate it again here:

Imo a team that has a potential franchise QB doesn't draft another potential franchise QB just because of preference.
If those teams drafted another QB (Griffin) it means their entire organization is making a major paradigm shift in the direction of the entire team.

thats essentially what your saying... those other QB's are franchise QB's and their respective teams will want them and RGIII will fall to the Redskins at #6

Close but your missing a major distinction: i'm not making the claim that those QBs are franchise (QBs except for Freeman) only that they have the potential to be; which is the same potential that Griffin may possess.

and all I'm saying is it aint happening.[Griff falling to #6] I think several fans here see RGIII as an upgrade over Bradford to include me, an upgrade over Ponder, an upgrade over Freeman easily, an upgrade over McCoy. So I'd be shocked if RGIII simply fell to #6.

Unless you can predict the future, you meant to say you think its not gonna happen and it might not happen.
And to be clear my statement was this:

Originally Posted by 30gut

Call me crazy but I think the chances of Griff being available at 6 are reasonable..........I recall last year when everyone swore the Bills, Bengals, Cards and 49ers would take a QB in the1st and none did.
That's why I think there's a good chance Griff falls to us at 6.

Do I think those other QB's can be franchise QB's? probably if they are in the right scheme and their talents used properly along with a few yrs of developement. But in this day and age of instant gratification I see no way the 4 teams above us simply say "no, were happy with what we got and can wait for our QB to become a franchise QB if they ever do."

But why would Griffin be any different?
Griffin may become a franchise QB if he's in the right scheme and his talents are used properly along with a few years of development just as the other QBs may, in fact those QB have a year or more of development headstart on him.
I get that you like Griffin, I like Griffin too as I've said repeatedly I think he's the best QB prospect in this draft but it doesn't make him any more of lock to become a franchise QB then Bradford, Ponder, McCoy and especially Freeman who imo is already the Buc's franchise QB.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SBXVII

The question is: do you think RGIII is better then those QB's right now? and your question is the exact question I'm trying to get you to. Why would a team trade away a franchise QB for RGIII if they already have one? they wouldn't, unless they are not franchise QB's.

So I'm "assuming" your thinking the Rams will not trade Bradford, the Vikes wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Ponder, the Bucks wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over Freeman, and the Browns wouldn't see RGIII as an upgrade over McCoy. Right? thats essentially what your saying... those other QB's are franchise QB's and their respective teams will want them and RGIII will fall to the Redskins at #6. and all I'm saying is it aint happening. I think several fans here see RGIII as an upgrade over Bradford to include me, an upgrade over Ponder, an upgrade over Freeman easily, an upgrade over McCoy. So I'd be shocked if RGIII simply fell to #6.

Do I think those other QB's can be franchise QB's? probably if they are in the right scheme and their talents used properly along with a few yrs of developement. But in this day and age of instant gratification I see no way the 4 teams above us simply say "no, were happy with what we got and can wait for our QB to become a franchise QB if they ever do."

This is why the whole concept of a franchise quarterback is dumb. Winning organizations think in terms of percentages, points, and wins. They do not think in terms of franchise marketability of the quarterback position.

You always start by doing a film analysis of your own players. If you feel like the quarterback is limiting your offense, the only relative question is how many more estimated points would we be likely to score if you switch at that position.

So lets say that Robert Griffin's sack projection as a rookie on the Cleveland Browns is 7.73%. McCoy was sacked at a 6.5% (7.4% for his career) clip last year, so that's actually a downgrade. So then you need a certain number of air yard improvement from the QB position to offset the downgrade. You'd need to essentially project Robert Griffin to have Cam Newton's rookie year as a thrower. Then you have to consider what you are giving up to get Griffin. Can you get anything for McCoy in a trade?

These are important decisions that the Browns have to make, re: RG3. If they conclude that Greg Little is going to drop third down passes no matter who the quarterback is, and AYPA (air yards per attempt) is going to remain low when you have Little and Massaquoi as your receivers, then the problem you want to fix is not going to be fixed by Robert Griffin. How "franchisezy" he is will not factor into consideration.

The Redskins will have to do a similar analysis, though in their case, they know that they can't conclude that the status quo is viable. Still, Griffin is going to have a set value to the Redskins, and you can't go well over that value to acquire the player, otherwise, you're hurting your team.

I think the Redskins have reached the conclusion that Andrew Luck is really very valuable to them: he might be the difference in the careers of Leonard Hankerson, Fred Davis, Roy Helu, plus whoever else the Redskins might draft this year. I think they like Griffin a lot and would start him from day one if they can get him, but ultimately remember that the team who is going to get Robert Griffin is the team that overvalues him by the most.