Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by biffle

Actually, Griffin will be drafted so high precisely because NFL teams don't listen to anything as silly as these percentages. Because they don't think Griffin has anything in common with the likes of Russell and Leaf.

This is how statistical analysis changed baseball. Teams figured out how to compare players by production and body type, among other things. They used that to project how players would produce in the future. Teams won titles by understanding how to use stats in context like that. What they didn't do was use something as laughably simplistic as "x percentage of players at y position don't work out."

Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, sure, there are a hundred ways to project Robert Griffin to the NFL better than historical bust rates, but that doesn't make your prior point any less irrelevant.

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

[Pigskins]

Originally Posted by biffle

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

You could make a case for redskins free agent qb's too!!! Manning could be the next, Mcnabb, Jeff George, brunell, it's the nfl no one is a guarantee, if it were everyone would win the sb every year, it's a lot to do with "luck"

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by biffle

My point was simply you can't assign some percentage chance of success on any player because of what other, completely different, players did. Both history and common sense should tell us that. I'm not sure how that is "irrelevant".

I wonder why actuaries use life tables.