Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by biffle

'50% of 1st round QBs succeed' is a statistic.

Using that to say 'Griffin has a 50% chance of success' is a terrible use of that statistic. And using it as a basis for draft decisions even more so.

I tried to show you examples to illustrate that, but it seemed pretty clear you weren't going to listen regardless so I gave up.

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?

[biffle]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Point taken, but define "succeed"?

Did Jason Campbell succeed? Did Carson Palmer? Did Vince Young? Did Chad Pennington? Is Mark Sanchez succeeding?

Looking at 1st round QBs over history, you've got plenty of guys who flopped, call it 50%. And you have plenty of guys who stuck around as QBs and performed well, but were never able to win anything. What you have very, very few of is stars.

And Manning is a STAR. The biggest.

Do you want to sign up for a guy who gets us to a few division titles and the divisional round of the playoffs? Maybe Griffin is more of a lock than other QB prospects, but you have to acknowledge the likelihood.

And I ask you, what's more likely. That Manning will never be himself again, or that Griffin will not become a stud?

Some of those questions you'll have to ask of people who want to use that 50% success number. I don't, so I'm not going to spend any time breaking down the particulars of something I think is basically worthless.

Manning certainly was great. Will he be again? Who knows. And who knows if the odds of that are better than of Griffin being great in the pros. But are you even discussing the Manning of now? Because even in 2010 Manning was still very good, but that performance might not get him into the Pro Bowl in the NFC right now. And do we think he's going to be better now than he was then, after a year off and in a new environment?

All of which is irrelevant to my thinking, because I think Manning, even if totally healthy, provides such a small window to win, and one in which he is likely to decline as the team is able to build around him. It's not a recipe for success, imo.

And no, division titles aren't worth much to me. The goal should be Super Bowls, and the team should be building towards them. Which is not the likely path I see with Peyton Manning.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

All of which is irrelevant to my thinking, because I think Manning, even if totally healthy, provides such a small window to win, and one in which he is likely to decline as the team is able to build around him. It's not a recipe for success, imo.

And no, division titles aren't worth much to me. The goal should be Super Bowls, and the team should be building towards them. Which is not the likely path I see with Peyton Manning.

Signing Peyton Manning reduces the current urgency to find a QB of the future through the use of a 1st round or early round draft picks.
Those early round draft picks can then be used for team building.
Areas like of team like OL, DL, DBs, WRs etc.
It also affords the luxury of developing/grooming a mid-round QB of the future the old fashioned way.
And of course the option to draft the next Robert Griffin in 2014 or 2015 will still be there.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Signing Peyton Manning reduces the current urgency to find a QB of the future through the use of a 1st round or early round draft picks.
Those early round draft picks can then be used for team building.
Areas like of team like OL, DL, DBs, WRs etc.

He'll also use up an awful lot of cap room which could be used towards the same team building.

Originally Posted by 30gut

It also affords the luxury of developing/grooming a mid-round QB of the future the old fashioned way.

And if we want to use those supposed odds you used earlier, the above plan has a success rate of, what, 5%?

Originally Posted by 30gut

And of course the option to draft the next Robert Griffin in 2014 or 2015 will still be there.

And he'll win us enough games that we'll be nowhere near the pick you would need to get the next Griffin, meaning it would cost much more than it would now, assuming we even lucked into another situation of a QB as good as Griffin being available and the team holding the pick having no need for a QB.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by biffle

He'll also use up an awful lot of cap room which could be used towards the same team building.

Maybe, maybe not.
The reports from Manning's camp suggest that he would be willing to structure his contract in favorable manner for the express purpose of not crippling that teams ability to improve.
And Bruce Allen has done a nice job creating cap space to allow them to sign a Peyton Manning.

And if we want to use those supposed odds you used earlier, the above plan has a success rate of, what, 5%?

You seem a bit salty huh?
The numbers are whatever the numbers are, the statistical outcome doesn't mean it can't or won't succeed.
We could represent the minor percentage that succeeds.

If you want to crunch the numbers and let me know be my guest.
Lets say Peyton plays for 3 years and each year they draft a developmental QB in the mid-rounds (3rd and down).

And he'll win us enough games that we'll be nowhere near the pick you would need to get the next Griffin, meaning it would cost much more than it would now, assuming we even lucked into another situation of a QB as good as Griffin being available and the team holding the pick having no need for a QB.

If we're shouting hypotheticals why not win the SB?
We don't have to get lucky for there to be other great QB prospects, there are great QB in almost every draft class.

And if a team wants a to draft a QB they can always trade up, draft position doesn't have to preclude a team from acquiring the prospect they want.

[biffle]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Maybe, maybe not.
The reports from Manning's camp suggest that he would be willing to structure his contract in favorable manner for the express purpose of not crippling that teams ability to improve.
And Bruce Allen has done a nice job creating cap space to allow them to sign a Peyton Manning.

And he's still going to cost a lot of money. If you don't think so, you're kidding yourself.

And even assuming this "I'll play for incentives" talk doesn't go completely out the window once the bidding starts, those incentives will be in the likely to be earned category (probably mostly for games played), which means you have to use the cap space anyway and get it back if he doesn't reach them. So either he costs a lot or he's worthlesss, basically.

Originally Posted by 30gut

You seem a bit salty huh?
The numbers are whatever the numbers are, the statistical outcome doesn't mean it can't or won't succeed.
We could represent the minor percentage that succeeds.

If you want to crunch the numbers and let me know be my guest.
Lets say Peyton plays for 3 years and each year they draft a developmental QB in the mid-rounds (3rd and down).

Facts are facts. And the chances of finding a premier QB in the 3rd round are virtually nil, despite you using several draft picks, which could have gone to the team building you were so concerned with.

Originally Posted by 30gut

If we're shouting hypotheticals

How is this just a hypothetical? Is the plan actually to sign Manning and have him suck so much we're picking top 10 again?

Originally Posted by 30gut

why not win the SB?

I've already said I don't see us winning a SB with Peyton.

Originally Posted by 30gut

We don't have to get lucky for there to be other great QB prospects, there are great QB in almost every draft class.

And they're almost always drafted by the teams with the top picks.

Originally Posted by 30gut

And if a team wants a to draft a QB they can always trade up, draft position doesn't have to preclude a team from acquiring the prospect they want.

And again, even if it were possible it's going to cost a ton. If you're going to blanch at the price to go from 6 to 2, just wait what it will be to go from the late teens (or lower) to number 1.