Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[NC_Skins]

Originally Posted by Dirtbag59

Also I just want to add, does anyone think the Giants regret giving up two first and a third for Eli Manning? I mean for Gods sake the Chargers got 3 Pro Bowlers in that trade yet the Giants now have 2 Super Bowls.

That's hindsight. Had Eli flopped, would they have regretted it? Sure as hell would. However, that team had a bunch talent on it when Eli got drafted. They were only 2 years removed from a Super Bowl appearance and vastly underperformed that prior year. We aren't that team with a good talented base to be giving up that many picks for a gamble. Not now. In the future, sure.

Do the Falcons regret giving up those picks for Vick?

Do the Chargers regret giving up those picks for Leaf?

[Son Of Man]

Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. (including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL)

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall (Incl. Young)

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall (after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers)

- 3 were won by Tom Brady (yes we know...drafted 199th overall)

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. (Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson)(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


Summary:

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

My hope:

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Son Of Man

Looking at the most recent 20 SuperBowl Champion Quaterbacks:

- 12 of those games were won by a QB drafted in the 1st round within the first 11 picks. (including Steve Young in the Supplemental draft after coming from the USFL)

- 9 of those Super Bowls were won by a QB chosen 1st overall (Incl. Young)

- 15 were won by Quaterbacks who were drafted within the top 33 picks overall (after you account for Favre, Brees and Rodgers)

- 3 were won by Tom Brady (yes we know...drafted 199th overall)

- The other 2 were Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson.

- 3 were won by a QB who was acquired via free agency. (Brees, Dilfer, Brad Johnson)(excluding Warner who was in the Arena league prior to the Rams).


Summary:

60% of the Super Bowls were won by a QB drafted high in the 1st Round.

3 out of 4 were won by QB's drafted in the top 33 picks.

10% were won by FA QB's with an historically great defense.

1 was one by a free agent QB without a great defense.

1 was one by a once in a generation Cinderella Story (Warner)

You have a great chance to win with a late round "developmental QB"....if his name is Tom Brady.

My hope:

We draft our guy high in the 1st round.

Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Son Of Man

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Perfect segway


How numbers in statistical surveys can be used to deceive and how one can be scammed.

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.

I don't see why that excludes him from the data....even so it only changes the data by 1 Super Bowl out of the last 20.

Look. I am not saying that drafting a QB high is a lock for the Lombardi trophy....it does appear that it can help though.