Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Most of the quarterbacks in the league -- good or bad -- were first round picks. If you have a starting QB who wasn't picked in the first round, you're already in a pretty severe minority. Knowing where they were drafted isn't predictive of QB quality, unless your universe is ALL quarterbacks drafted. Because later round picks tend to be backups and let go out of the league where first rounders keep getting picked up to get additional chances (some successful).

So saying that there is a tendency for highly drafted quarterbacks to win the super bowl is sort of like pointing out that the highest paid coaching staffs tend to win the super bowl. It's very true, but when you compete at the highest level, you kind of expect the alpha types to make it to the top. And you don't consider it science when they do. That was the whole idea.

With that said, research shows that the late round picks who do last a long time in the league are just as good once they are veteran quarterbacks as are first round picks. But the reason that first round picks have much longer careers is that lesser prospects aren't around for their 6th, 7th, and 8th years, when QBs are in their prime.

I'll give you an example: Dan Orlovsky is probably one of the 30 best NFL quarterbacks. He was out of the league for two years. Curtis Painter was employed by a team during this time Orlovsky was out of the league. The biggest difference: Curtis Painter is a 3rd year player. Orlovsky was a 7th year player. Painter is probably going to be out of the NFL next year.

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by Son Of Man

Not disagreeing with you...just showing the data.

In my business we have a saying: "Men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie."

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.

[Dirtbag59]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Perfect segway


How numbers in statistical surveys can be used to deceive and how one can be scammed.

[Son Of Man]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

And I've heard: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Speaking of the first-round QB and SB wins. Aaron Rodgers doesn't count on that argument. Although he was picked up in the first round (late in the first), Rodgers sat for three years on the bench, and I am sure anyone who's making a case for RG3 is not saying that we should pick him up to sit him for three years.

I don't see why that excludes him from the data....even so it only changes the data by 1 Super Bowl out of the last 20.

Look. I am not saying that drafting a QB high is a lock for the Lombardi trophy....it does appear that it can help though.