Redskins Add WRs Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

Our O-line was in better shape than our WRs.

Out of pure curiosity why do you think this?

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Out of pure curiosity why do you think this?

We have capable starters on the oline, but our depth could be better. Our starting WRs are fading fast and would be in marginal roles elsewhere and our depth is shaky as well.

Hankerson's recovery is still in question and he seems to be on a slow learning curve. Austin, Robinson, and Paul all seem not ready yet. Gaffney is not really much of a threat; he's like a slower and older Steve Smith(former Giant). Moss is nearing that magic age of 33; WRs just seem to retire at that age or soon afterwards.

Trent is an either-or. He either is gonna be suspended and do nothing, or he keeps himself clean and improve yet again this year. I'll take my bets that he'll stay clean and thus play, at a bare minimum, just as well this year next year. The interior three held their own, and I'm willing to place some hope into Willie Smith improving enough to be ever-so-slightly better than Jamaal Brown.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

We have capable starters on the oline, but our depth could be better. Our starting WRs are fading fast and would be in marginal roles elsewhere and our depth is shaky as well.

I think our OL as unit is greater then the sum of its parts and is better then most people think.
(Football outsiders ranks our OL: 10th in run blocking 15th in pass blocking)

But, I think you overstate the quality of the individual players and underestimate the quality of our WRs.
I don't think judging our players on how/where they would fit on another is too subjective to be useful in assess their talent.
But even using that criteria I think you would be hard pressed to find a starting role for any of out OL other then Trent Williams and maybe Chris Chester.

Football Outsiders ranks our passing offense:22th
Jabbar Gaffney ranks 33rd in DYAR and 48th in DVOA which is actually ahead of newly signed P.Garcon 81st and 78th respectively.
Interestingly enough the injured S.Moss DYAR/DVOA 80th DYAR/79th DVOA, rival Garcon. And keep in mind this group of WRs dealt with Wrecks Grossman and John Beck getting them the ball; which imo was a major limiting factor.

I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.

The interior three held their own, and I'm willing to place some hope into Willie Smith improving enough to be ever-so-slightly better than Jamaal Brown.

I have high hopes for Willy too but I would rather not rely on hope as a strategy for improvement when it comes to protect our franchise QB.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Sorry to be late to this discussion:

Signing of Garcon: An A+ for the front office. Those who say that Garcon looked better than he really is because he had Peyton Manning throwing to him all these years overlook the fact that Peyton Manning threw him the ball because he got open. : :


Signing of Josh Morgan: Put me in the "skeptical category". [Skeptics are ones who have doubts but can be convinced they are wrong on the basis of future data/observations.] I think that is a lot of money for a guy whose career accomplishments to date are pretty average. :confused-


Almost signing of Eddie Royal: Would have been a GREAT addition to the WR corps.


Here is an interesting thing to think about. Right after the season ended, the Skins fired Keenan McCardell as the WRs coach. Conventional wisdom at the time was that the Skins' braintrust did not think he got as much out of the WRs on the roster as he could have. Now, as soon as free agency opens, the Skins have the pedal to the metal to sign an entirely new WR corps.

Hmmm.... Must have been some inadequate coaching PLUS a fundamental lack of talent at the position.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I think our OL as unit is greater then the sum of its parts and is better then most people think.
(Football outsiders ranks our OL: 10th in run blocking 15th in pass blocking)

But, I think you overstate the quality of the individual players and underestimate the quality of our WRs.
I don't think judging our players on how/where they would fit on another is too subjective to be useful in assess their talent.
But even using that criteria I think you would be hard pressed to find a starting role for any of out OL other then Trent Williams and maybe Chris Chester.

Football Outsiders ranks our passing offense:22th
Jabbar Gaffney ranks 33rd in DYAR and 48th in DVOA which is actually ahead of newly signed P.Garcon 81st and 78th respectively.
Interestingly enough the injured S.Moss DYAR/DVOA 80th DYAR/79th DVOA, rival Garcon. And keep in mind this group of WRs dealt with Wrecks Grossman and John Beck getting them the ball; which imo was a major limiting factor.

I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.

I have high hopes for Willy too but I would rather not rely on hope as a strategy for improvement when it comes to protect our franchise QB.

There is much more hoping needed at the WR position for us than at the OL starters. We have to hope Moss's age has not caught up with him, that Gaffney can replicate his season, that Hankerson is indeed more than just a one game wonder, that Paul will do something more than just be a blocker, and that Austin and the rest can actually do something. Wille Smith had a longer audition to showcase his stuff and he did quite well; hence, hoping for him is more plausible than hoping for the WR corps to magically transform itself into on that rivals the better ones in the league.


Football Outsiders themselves state that their statistics are not at the point where they have accounted for all of the confounding effects on it. Also, things that occur in the game, but do not hit the official NFL statsheet, are not counted, such as whether the player is facing the opposing #1 corner, being double-teamed. Gaffney, without controlling for variables such as scheme, other receivers taking pressure off of him, play action effectiveness, o-line quality, etc might have indeed performed better than Moss last year, but that does not necessarily prove that he is the better, more valuable player on the field physically.

Also, if we are to use these stats to predict future performance, the real matter is whether past DYAR and DVOA is a good indicator of future DYAR and DVOA values.


Garcon had even worse QBs and a worse supporting cast.

[sportscurmudgeon]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

There is much more hoping needed at the WR position for us than at the OL starters. We have to hope Moss's age has not caught up with him, that Gaffney can replicate his season, that Hankerson is indeed more than just a one game wonder, that Paul will do something more than just be a blocker, and that Austin and the rest can actually do something. Wille Smith had a longer audition to showcase his stuff and he did quite well; hence, hoping for him is more plausible than hoping for the WR corps to magically transform itself into on that rivals the better ones in the league.

With the signings of Garcon and Morgan - - and assuming that both make it through training camp uninjured - - you can take two of those WRs you have hopes for and erase them from the Redskins' roster in 2012.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by sportscurmudgeon

With the signings of Garcon and Morgan - - and assuming that both make it through training camp uninjured - - you can take two of those WRs you have hopes for and erase them from the Redskins' roster in 2012.

Which is exactly why Garcon's and Morgan's respective signings are, IMO, justified.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

There is much more hoping needed at the WR position for us than at the OL starters. We have to hope Moss's age has not caught up with him, that Gaffney can replicate his season....Wille Smith had a longer audition to showcase his stuff and he did quite well; hence, hoping for him is more plausible than hoping for the WR corps to magically transform itself into on that rivals the better ones in the league.

Good points and without turning this into a longer debate then neccesary I think the opposite of what you're saying above is true.
I'm talking specifically about Moss and Hankerson the expectations for the rest of the receiving corps is no different then any other NFL team that is trying to develop young WRs.
As far as the 'hope' theory goes for me there is less hope required players have actually achieved the level of play desired (Gaffney, Moss) vs expecting players that have not yet to reached the expected level of production.
Willie Smith was good for an UDFA back-up, Polumbus also was decent for a back-up, Jammal Brown was well terrible as a starter.
If the season started now we would not have a competent RT on the roster but even without Garcon and Morgan we would have 2 competent WRs in Moss and Gaffney.
And that ulitmately is the difference.
We would be hoping that Brown, Smith and Polumbus improve to a level that we've haven't seen yet(or recently in Jammal Brown's case).

Football Outsiders...Gaffney, without controlling for variables such as scheme, other receivers taking pressure off of him, play action effectiveness, o-line quality, etc might have indeed performed better than Moss last year, but that does not necessarily prove that he is the better, more valuable player on the field physically....
Also, if we are to use these stats to predict future performance, the real matter is whether past DYAR and DVOA is a good indicator of future DYAR and DVOA values.

I understand your point here but I'm not using FBO to predict anything.
I posted the their stats as a reference.
And of course FBO metric has limitation every stat does but the limits you address apply to Garcon and Morgan just like the apply for Moss and Gaffney.

Garcon had even worse QBs and a worse supporting cast.

I would say that QB is a push, but lets not forget Garcon was playing with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.

[SirClintonPortis]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Good points and without turning this into a longer debate then neccesary I think the opposite of what you're saying above is true.
I'm talking specifically about Moss and Hankerson the expectations for the rest of the receiving corps is no different then any other NFL team that is trying to develop young WRs.
As far as the 'hope' theory goes for me there is less hope required players have actually achieved the level of play desired (Gaffney, Moss) vs expecting players that have not yet to reached the expected level of production.
Willie Smith was good for an UDFA back-up, Polumbus also was decent for a back-up, Jammal Brown was well terrible as a starter.
If the season started now we would not have a competent RT on the roster but even without Garcon and Morgan we would have 2 competent WRs in Moss and Gaffney.
And that ulitmately is the difference.
We would be hoping that Brown, Smith and Polumbus improve to a level that we've haven't seen yet(or recently in Jammal Brown's case).

We know what Gaffney and Moss provides, but it isn't much anyway, and age depreciation is not something to simply throw under the rug when talking about WRs. It is not foolish to expect Moss to trend downwards next season statistically; physically, he already has shown signs of aging. Expecting a "second wind" from a WR nearing 33 years of age is a course of action that will lead to disappointment.

Smith had to start, at a more difficult position, and he held his own for four games. Because he was a rookie and he has much to learn, it is not unreasonable to expect him to play at a higher level than he did last year and be better than Brown.

I understand your point here but I'm not using FBO to predict anything.
I posted the their stats as a reference.
And of course FBO metric has limitation every stat does but the limits you address apply to Garcon and Morgan just like the apply for Moss and Gaffney.

I would like a little clarification as to what specific points are you trying to establish with the use of the stat of DYAR and DVOA. As in what is this stat supposed to tell me specifically.

And I don't believe I'm guilty of selectively applying the stat. I believe there is no conclusive way to use DYAR as a solid estimator for the how good a reciever is. Morgan cannot be deemed as vastly superior to Garcon and Moss, if one ignores the small sample size of Mrogan's. Garcon and Moss might or might not be similar as the stats imply. Or as an example from last year, DeSean Jackson and Jabar Gaffney had the same DYAR, but the near-unanimous majority would rate DJax as the better receiver.

And the DYAR can vary considerably even for the same receiver over time, like Garcon had a positive DYAR the year before and an even higher DYAR two years ago.

I would say that QB is a push, but lets not forget Garcon was playing with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.

Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.

So now we're back to talking physical impact after leaving the lovely ivory tower of blind statisical inferences? I'd like a RT too, but we are not in a position to sit back and relax at the state of our WR corps either, especially two years from now, when Gaffney cross that threshold into the realm of unproductiveness(33 years of age) and we only have Leonard Hankerson's game against Miami to say it's not a problem.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by SirClintonPortis

We know what Gaffney and Moss provides, but it isn't much anyway...Expecting a "second wind" from a WR nearing 33 years of age is a course of action that will lead to disappointment......it is not unreasonable to expect him to play at a higher level than he did last year and be better than Brown.

I feel like we're going in circles now where you devalue Moss and Gaffney's actual production while talking up heretofore unseen production from a UDFA rooke RT and a drastically underperforming and injured RT.
My point is simple net-net Gaffney and Moss are better WRs then Willie Smith and Jammal Brown are RTs.
I don't see how anyone can say they know what Gaffney and Moss provide and say its not much when compared against the level of play at the RT position.

2011
Jabar Gaffney 68 catches 947 yards 5 tds
Pierre Garcon 70 catches 947 yards 6 tds
Santana Moss 48 catches 548 yards 4 tds (missed 4 games with a broken hand)
Moss's 2010 season (then one where he didn't break his hand like this year) 93 catches(top 10), 1,115 yards(top 10) 6 tds

The stats are for reference.
For example when you say that Moss/Gaffney don't provide much you can look refer to the stats and see there actual production numbers.

Originally Posted by SCP

I believe there is no conclusive way to use DYAR as a solid estimator for the how good a reciever is

Me too.

Actually the only one making blind statistical inferences is you.
I posted the stats you made assumptions and inferences based on the stats.

I'd like a RT too, but we are not in a position to sit back and relax at the state of our WR corps either, especially two years from now, when Gaffney cross that threshold into the realm of unproductiveness(33 years of age) and we only have Leonard Hankerson's game against Miami to say it's not a problem.

Who said anything about sitting back and relaxing about our WR corps? I surely did not:

Originally Posted by 30gut

I would have been just as happy with Early Doucet or Harry Douglas and saved some of that 21 mil/42mil/5

So again, simply put I think addressing the RT position this offseason with a proven quality starter provides greater benefit to our rookie QB then adding a couple of 2nd tier WRs with upside.
Or as i've stated previously:

Originally Posted by 30gut

Did the signing of Garcon and Morgan improve the WR corps? Yes.
But, again for me I think RT more so they any other position on offense was the weakest link on our starting 11.
I'm an oldschool type guy and I think physical superiority at the point of attack is the single most successful way to improve an offense.
I think finding a definitive upgrade at the RT position, more then any else, would be the most beneficial to support a rookie QB.
If people expect a Cam Newtonesque season from Griffin people shouldn't overlook the quality of Newton's OL.