Make your Case for non-HOFer

[skinster]

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

[los panda]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

show that math please

[skinster]

Originally Posted by los panda

show that math please

The math is really nothing more than the average number of HOF inductees per year (roughly 6) multiplied by the average career length of a HOF player (roughly 13). That is the amount of HOF players that should be playing right now. Roughly it should be about 78 players. I was conservative by saying 5 and 12 in my last post, but 6 inductees per year and an average of a 13 year career is more accurate.

[skinster]

Originally Posted by skinster

Here's the thing about the Hall of fame that most people don't get. It is the called the Hall of the Great, but realistically it is the hall of the very very good. Break it down mathematecially...an average of 6 players get in per year, but for arguments sake lets round down to 5. The average career of a HOF player is at least 11 years. That means that playing today, there is a minimum of 55 players that will make the HOF (really its much more than that as I was being conservative). You think you can name 55 players playing today that are some of the all time greats? I can't. The HOF is the HOTVVG.

I'm just going to (conservatively) say that there are 5 nfl players inducted to the HOF, whose average career is 12 years, which would mean there are roughly 60 HOF players playing now. I'm going to only include players who have completed 5 or more seasons in this estimation, as with the exceptions of Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Charles Woodson, it was abundantly obvious where each of these players were headed by the end of their 5th season. Under the restriction I should be able to find 35 players who will make the hall.
QBs
1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethelssberger
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Eli Manning

RBs
7. Ladanian Tomlinson
8. Adrian Peterson

TEs
9. Tony Gonzolez
10. Antonio Gates or Jason Witten...Grahm/Gronk/injuries will keep one out

WRs
12. Calvin Johnson
13. Andre Johnson
13. Larry Fitzgerald
14. Randy Moss
15. Terrell Owens

OT
16. Joe Thomas

OG
17. Steve Hutchinson

C
18. Nick Mangold

S
19. Ed Reed
20. Troy Polamalu
21. Brian Dawkins

CB
22. Darell Revis
23. Champ Bailey
24. Charles Woodson

ILB
25. Ray Lewis
26. Patrick Willis
28. Brian Urlacher

OLB
29. Demarcus Ware
30. Jason Taylor

DE
31. Jared Allen
32. Dwight Freeney
33. Julius Peppers
34. Richard Seymour

DT
35. Vince Wilfork
36. Haloti Ngata
37. Kevin Williams

I was able to get 37. This seems about right. Taking into consideration that there will be roughly 3 more that will get in that have played 5 years, and taking into consideration that a couple might get injured, those balance out to be null. I also severely undershot this list. 5 players per year is an undershot, and an average career length of 12 years is an undershot. The old players that will get in will make the number of current HOFers a little lower, but not by much as one day the current players will be the old players preventing future players from getting in.

Bottom line, there are at least 60 HOF players playing today, and through Math, its pretty obvious who most of them are going to be. This is obviously not 100% accurate, but I'd be shocked if my list isn't 85% accurate.