Make your Case for non-HOFer

[skinster]

Originally Posted by Lotus

The bolded was my point. Of course such a thing won't happen but it is important as a thought experiment. If you think about that long enough, you will see that logically it means that you have to take ALL players into account in your math. And when you do this, your estimate will shrink significantly.

BTW I was a math major who scored 790/800 on the math section and 800/800 on the logic section of the GRE so I can match your "card."

You don't include something that almost positively will not happen in a prediction. I said the end of the world part sarcastically. If you want conservancy, I already shrunk my estimate as the average HOF career of players drafted since 1980 is 14 years and my formula shrunk it to 12.

Still, even if there's a doomsday scenario, or any other scenario possible, I don't see any scenario under which all players are taken into account. Please write me up a formula to educate me.