Better Rookie Season Stats Griffin or Luck?

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by 30gut

btw-
thanks for getting the thread back on track

Of course it takes more then a rookie season to predict or know what type a QB a rookie will become.(I believe it takes about 36 starts depending on schematic continuity)
But, again I'm not asking for a career prediction based on this season.
I'm asking for opinion on whether or not there is a benchmark level of production Luck(i.e. the greatest prospect since Peyton Manning/John Elway) needs to reach THIS season to justify the hype.

And if someone thinks there is a statistical benchmark what is it?

Maybe there is no rookie year benchmark for some people.
Maybe some think regardless of his rookie year production the hype is warranted?

Maybe some think production on par with Blaine Gabbert is good enough to warrant his hype or maybe some others think production on must be at least on par with Andy Dalton?

Its just something I'm curious about that I didn't think warrants its own thread, so I figured it fit here.*shrugs*

It's fine to put it in here, I was just saying why I thought the two questions kept getting mixed.

I don't think 1st year production means much to long term prospect status. We all know Peyton had more INTs than TD's, and my first memory of Elway is him lining up behind the tackle not the center. The question will be how he masters and runs the offense, something neither ADalton or CNewton did, they just let their athleticism and ability show through, and their coaches allowed that to happen.

Originally Posted by 30gut

Cool, what do you think the ballpark will be? Close or wide margin?

Not very good at stats, just because there are so many variables, but here is a shot at it:

Luck 62% completion, 3100 yds (lots of completions with very little YAC), 23 TD/22 INT, 300 yds rushing, 4 Rushing TD

Griffin 67% completion, 3800 yds( some good YAC from Santana and FD/Cooley) 26TD/14INT, 700 yd rushing, 5 Rushing TD

Originally Posted by 30gut

When I look at the success of Dalton and Newton in their new schemes without the benefit of an offseason, I have a hard time considering everything being new a stumbling block.
I think the Colts have replaced almost as many pieces as they've lost and still have enough pieces to field a quality offense.

See above. I think people forget the Defenses had no offseason either. The fact that the Colts are coming in with a whole new staff, and booted many of their starting offensive players, Saturday, Clark, Garcon, simply means that more players are learning and starting for the first time. By definition that means that many players are learning the speed of the NFL game for the first time, and that should have an impact on the offensive output. You didn't have that in either Carolina or Cincinatti last year, there were a few pieces replaced, but not wholesale purging like Indy.

[30gut]

I thought I replied to this earlier:

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Not very good at stats, just because there are so many variables, but here is a shot at it:

Luck 62% completion, 3100 yds (lots of completions with very little YAC), 23 TD/22 INT, 300 yds rushing, 4 Rushing TD

Griffin 67% completion, 3800 yds( some good YAC from Santana and FD/Cooley) 26TD/14INT, 700 yd rushing, 5 Rushing TD

Wow, I thought I was bullish on Griffin but those numbers would rock.
I gotta say though I don't think Griff is gonna run enough to gain 700 yds and I don't think he'll complete such a high % in his rookie year.
I think/hope Griff is gonna be vertically aggressive in the passing game and that is probably gonna prevent him from posting a high comp%.

I guess I should put some figures up also:

Luck 62% 3,800 25 TDs 18 INTs 250 rush 3 TDs
Griffin 60% 3,600 22 TDs 14 INTs 400 rush 5 TDs

[los panda]

the "your washington redskins" part reminded me of this


i don't even like pro basketball, the bulls, or alan parsons but their intro used to give me goosbumps.

[GTripp0012]

Thing is, we're all going to have to answer this question come fantasy draft season and there's no one out there who will be taking Luck ahead of Griffin in their fantasy draft.

So while the contrarian answer is that Luck will do better, the easy answer is Griffin will have better rookie numbers. Maybe (hopefully?) by a large margin.

[Monkeydad]

Who was the one traitor?

I have a good guess.

[SBXVII]

I still think this question has the obvious answer....

the Redskins have been in rebuild for 2 yrs and now have many pieces to the puzzle to include finally a QB. The Colts are just now starting to rebuild which means new scheme, new system, new players in key positions, new coaching staff, etc. etc. etc.

The Skins are farther ahead then the Colts are and should have a better season since the team picked up better WR's, a better QB, and better pieces to the defense.

[mooby]

I voted for Luck. Why? Because I felt like someone had to. And then I saw the results and realized I'm not the only one who felt that way.

[30gut]

i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

[MTK]

Originally Posted by 30gut

i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

What's your reasoning?

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

What's your reasoning?

First Bruce Arians is notoriously pass heavy.

I can't find it quoted anywhere anymore but Phil Simms said that franchise QBs are fostered through playcalling; Simms gave the example of throwing the ball 4 times on the goalline.
Putting the focus on developing the QB is the approach Chudzinski took with Cam Newton and its the approach Tom Moore took with Manning as a rookie when Arians was the QB coach so he has first hand experience with this style of grooming.
Imo when you turn the page on Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck falls in your lap I think the entire franchise understands that its gonna be all about developing Andrew Luck.

[NYCskinfan82]

Originally Posted by 30gut;918175[B

]i'm surprised by how lopsided the turn out
granted there was gonna to be some homerism [/B]
and i think negative perception of the Colts talent level plays a role too
interesing stuff,

I think Luck and Griffin are gonna have similar statistical production

Luck is gonna benefit from having the decidedly pass heavy Bruce Arians as his OC
Especially since the plan is to basically run a mix of Stanford offense using Peyton Manning's rookie season as the blue print

If given carte blanche Arians/Luck will pass the ball a ton and inflate Luck's stats
I'm sure developing Luck will come first and wouldn't be surprised if Arians throws the ball 3 times in a row everytime they're on goalline just to get Luck a TD

Luck 3,800 26/22

Griffin 3,600 23/17

Lots of Kool Aide drinking going on around here, self included.

[REDSKINS4ever]

In all seriousness, you can't compare Griffin III and Luck as rookie quarterbacks. Luck has an disadvantage in Indianapolis with no weapons and going through a rebuilding program similar to what Troy Aikman, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning had to endure. RG3 on the other hand has weapons to throw to. He has a better all around supporting cast.

It's better to compare Griffin III and Andrew Luck far off into the future when they are solid veterans.

[MTK]

Luck is going to have weapons. They had a nice draft and they still have Reggie Wayne.

[Monkeydad]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

Luck is going to have weapons. They had a nice draft and they still have Reggie Wayne.

True but for the purposes of this poll, Griffin will have more.

VERY Deep at WR and TE and a trio of more-than-competent RBs with a nice pass-catching FB in Young too, possibly two if Cooley moves there.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Monkeydad

True but for the purposes of this poll, Griffin will have more.

VERY Deep at WR and TE and a trio of more-than-competent RBs with a nice pass-catching FB in Young too, possibly two if Cooley moves there.

VERY deep at WR and TE?

If you look at the most productive WRs player for player based on last seasons production its very close:

Skins --------------------------------------------------------------Colts
Garcon 70/947 6 TDs ----------------------------------Wayne 75/960 4 TDs
Moss 46/584 4 TDs-------------------------------------Collie 54/514 1 TD

After the WRs mentioned above sure it appears the Redskins have more depth because our players have 'name' recognition.
But they're in the same ball park from a production stand point as the Colts no name depth (Donnie Avery, Quan Cosby): unproven.
We have high hopes for Hankerson and Morgan but they're unproven or returning from injury or both.

TE: Clearly Fred Davis the most proven and productive TE on either roster.
But, Cooley is coming off 8/65 season and Paul is a WR moving to TE they're both if projections at this point.
And if we're projecting Paul and Cooley to have success then I think drafting the 2 top TE prospects in the draft warrants a positive projection also.

I don't count unproven players or player coming off injury as quality depth.
Could they be productive? Sure

But if you're counting on Hankerson, Morgan, Cooley towards being VERY deep then I think you have to give the Colts credit for their potentially productive players as well.